Climate Instability and Public Health Paul R' Epstein

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CLIMATE INSTABILITY AND PUBLIC HEALTH
NREL January 13, 2005 Paul R. Epstein, M.D.,
M.P.H. http//www/med.harvard.edu/chge
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Algal Blooms Peru 1991
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• United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
  Change
• Third Assessment Report 2001
• Climate is changing
• Human activities are contributing
• Biological systems are being affected on
  all continents
• Weather is becoming more extreme.

All weather f (CC NV)
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Sea Surface Temperatures Sept. 2004
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• Since 2001 We Have Learned
• CO2 rise is accelerating 3ppm/yr, up from 1.8
• Tropical oceans are warmer saltier
• surface waters near the poles cooler
  fresher
• In August water entering the Arctic Ocean
• was 1o F warmer than a year ago!
• 3. Polar and mountain glacial ice is diminishing
  at surprising rates
• 4. Winds around both poles are
• becoming more forceful.

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379 ppm
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The Changing Shape of the Curve
O U T L I E R S
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Deep Ocean Warming
Oceans 18.2 x 1022 J Atmosphere 6.6 x 1021 J
Levitus et al. Science 2000 287 2225
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Precipitation Extremes Past
century Average annual precipitation
7 Heavy rain events" (gt2/day)
14 Very heavy rain events" (gt4/day)
20 Western drought worst in 500 years
- Groisman et al. 2004
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Greenland Ice Sheet
772,000 square miles of ice 1.9 miles thick
Melting 1 meter/yr 2000 10 meters/yr
2004
Geological Survey of Greenland and Denmark
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Assessing Climate Stability Rates of
Change Variability Gradients
Number of Components Changing
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Epidemiological Framework
Ecological-epidemiological Framework
Agent
Social
Environment
Host
Ecological
Global
Epidemics
Disease
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MODEL PROJECTIONSHEATWAVES
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SUMMER 2003 HEATWAVE FRANCE, GERMANY, ITALY,
SPAIN, PORTUGAL 21-35, 000 deaths
WILDFIRES CROP FAILURES
SURPRISES

• 2003 Summer Temperatures
• 10oC (18oF) gt30year average

Source NASA
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INDIA
June 2003 T 122F gt1400 deaths
Andhra Pradesh
July Floods Japanese B encephalitis
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AIR POLLUTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Indoor pollutants
Socio/economic/emotional factors
  ASTHMA 2-3x Since 1980s
Diesel Particles mold pollen

• Pollen CO2

Floods Fungi
Ground-level Ozone
Droughts Fires
Heatwaves
 
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RAGWEED POLLEN PRODUCTIONand CO2
p 0.005
Wayne et al., 2002 Annals of Allergy, Asthma and
Immunology 8279
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CO2 Dome
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Emerging Infectious Diseases
30 NEW TO MEDICINE SINCE 1976 HIV/AIDS
Legionnaires E. coli O157H7 MDRTB
others SARS nvCJD HPS Vibrio cholerae O139
Nipah virus Ebola Arenaviruses Lyme disease
RESURGENT REDISTRIBUTING
Malaria, DF, WNV, Leptospirosis, Cholera,
Avian Flu
VECTORS Mosquitoes Ticks Rodents Bats Tsetse
Flies Fleas Lice Snails Algae
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INFECTIOUS DISEASE A DRIVING FORCE IN HISTORY
The Bad News PLAGUE 541
AD 1346 AD
The Good News
Cholera, TB, Smallpox
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MONTANE REGIONS
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4161 284

9389 246
WNV HUMAN CASES DEATHS
62 66
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DROUGHT 1999, 2002, 2003

• 2000 2001 2002 2003
• 25 Nov

Jeff Shaman Paul Epstein
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• WNV A DISEASE OF WILDLIFE
• 230 SPECIES 44 STATES, DC, 5 CANADIAN
  PROVINCES
• 138 Bird spp., RAPTORS
• - 37 spp. of mosquitoes
• HORSES
• ZOO animals
• REPTILES

AVIAN FLYWAYS
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Ecological Ripples
INFECTIOUS DISEASES AS FORCES OF GLOBAL CHANGE
Raptors Rodents
Lyme disease Hantaviruses
Arenaviruses
Leptospirosis
Toxoplasmosis Plague
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PACIFIC ANOMALIES
ASIA
AFRICA
AMERICAS
AUS
WARM WEST COLD EAST
Hoerling and Kumar The perfect ocean for
drought. Science 2003 299 691
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EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS DISEASE CLUSTERS
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HURRICANE MITCH
HURRICANE MITCH 1998
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HURRICANE MITCH IMPACTS ON HEALTH AND
DEVELOPMENT
DISEASE CLUSTER
-- Malaria (gt30,000 cases) -- Dengue
fever (gt1,000) -- Cholera (gt30,000) --
Leptospirosis Juan Almendares

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• WEATHER ANOMALIES, TRAVEL HAZARDS
• and TRAUMA
• Fog, Ice Storms Road Travel
• Floods Mudslides
• Ice Instability, Heavy Precipitation
  Avalanches
• Infrastructure Damage and Water QQ
• HEALTH ECONOMIC
  IMPACTS

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Range Expansion of Soybean Rust North America
Crop Pests Generations/Year
XB Yang, C Rosenzweig, P Anderson R Quiroz, G
Baigorria, A Iglesias
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Drought, Bark Beetles Fires
Respiratory disease
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Costs of Emerging Infectious Diseases
BIO ECONOMIC RESEARCH ASSSOCIATION, Cambridge, MA
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Costs of Extreme Weather Events
Insurance Reinsurance, Corporations, FEMA,
OFDA, NGOs, Nation States, UN Agencies
Av. 40 B/y
Av. 4 B/y
UNEP 150B/y w/in this decade
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OIL LIFE CYCLE COSTS
Harm Marine Mammals Shore
birds Fisheries Consumers Livelihoods
Spills Leaks
Exploration Extraction Transport Refining Transpor
t
MERCURY
Air Pollution
Eutrophication NOxs
Acid Rain
Combustion
Warming Oceans Coral Reefs SLR EWEs Melting Polar
Ice
Climate Change
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• CLIMATE CHANGE FUTURES
• HEALTH, ECOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS
• Swiss Re, UNDP, JMF
• Community-building Scientists, UN agencies,
  NGOs, Corporations
• Knowledge-building Economic evaluation
• Awareness-building RISKS and OPPORTUNIIES

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Harmonizing Adaptation with Mitigation Distribute
d Generation Water Schools Purification
Clinics Pumping Homes Irrigation
Computers Desalinization Cooking
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• ENABLING FINANCIAL ARCHITECTURE
• FOR SUSTAINABLE
  DEVELOPMENT

Regulatory
Funds, subsidies, tax incentives
THE ENGINE OF GROWTH for the 21st CENTURY
Institutional

• EE, RE and DG
• Green Buildings Smart Growth
• Rationalized Transport Transit
• Retrofitting Infrastructure
• Ecological Reconstruction