Time series: simple linear trend

1
Time series simple linear trend
JHU Undergraduate Tuition FY 1990-2007
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
Tuition
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Academic Year
Eric Lin, source http//webapps.jhu.edu
2
Time series simple linear trend
Eric Lin, source http//webapps.jhu.edu
3
Time series external effects
United State Homicide Rate
12
10
8
Homicide rate per 100,000 population
6
4
2
0
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Year
Peter Dewey, source US Department of Justice
Bureau of Justice Statistics
4
Time series external effects
Peter Dewey, source US Department of Justice
Bureau of Justice Statistics
5
Time series time as a real effect
Mario Kart 64 Race Times
126
124
122
120
Race Time (seconds)
118
116
114
112
0
5
10
15
Race Number
Andrew Zuckerman, source Race times in the video
game Mario Kart 64 for Nintendo 64
6
Time series conflicting external effects
Andrew Zuckerman, source Race times in the video
game Mario Kart 64 for Nintendo 64
7
Time series noisy external effects
Mei-Lin Chen, source http//www.metoffice.gov.uk
8
Time series noisy external effects
Mei-Lin Chen, source http//www.metoffice.gov.uk
9
Time series noise reduction by spatial averaging
Global Temperature Over Time
0.6
0.4
y 0.0042x - 8.2798
0.2
Temperature (C) jkh
0
1840
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
Year
Leah Zambetti, source http//www.cru.uea.ac.uk
10
Time series noise reduction by spatial averaging
Leah Zambetti, source http//www.cru.uea.ac.uk
11
Time series analysis of outliers
Pregnancy Rates of U.S.
teenagers aged 18-19
180
170
160
150
Pregnancy Rate (per
1,000 women)
140
130
120
110
100
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
Year
Gayathree Murugappan, source http//www.cdc.gov/n
chs/
12
Time series analysis of outliers
Gayathree Murugappan, source http//www.cdc.gov/n
chs/
13
Time series simple linear trend from external
effects
percentage of male smokers
60
50
40
Percent
30
20
10
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Steven Gillmeister, source http//www.statistics.
gov.uk
14
Time series simple linear trend from external
effects
Steven Gillmeister, source http//www.statistics.
gov.uk
15
Time series noisy linear trend from external
effects
Percent Female Career Firefighters in the US
(1983-2004)
5
4
3
Percent ()
2
1
0
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
Year
Alexis Rosker, source National Fire Protection
Association (NFPA) website
16
Time series noisy linear trend from external
effects
Alexis Rosker, source National Fire Protection
Association (NFPA) website
17
Time series bounded data
Kai Selterman, source Newsweek
18
Time series bounded data
Kai Selterman, source Newsweek
19
Time series x and y affected by the same
external effects?
Lindsay Kranker, source World Development
Indicators Online
20
Time series x and y affected by the same
external effects?
Lindsay Kranker, source World Development
Indicators Online
21
Time series interpretation with one external
effect
Greg Gotimer, source http//www.census.gov
22
Time series interpretation with one external
effect
Greg Gotimer, source http//www.census.gov