Consequences of Renewable Energy: A Systems Perspective

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Consequences of Renewable EnergyA Systems
Perspective
IGBP 20th Anniversary Symposium Stockholm, Sweden
17-18 September 2007
Kevin Noone Executive Director IGBP
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Outline

• The energy sectors impact on global
  environmental change
• Keeping our eyes on the prize
• A history lesson
• Energy production from an Earth System Science
  perspective grain ethanol
• Its all connected

http//www.andysinger.com
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What to remember?

• This is not the first time we have faced an
  energy crisis. What decisions will we make this
  time?
• No single approach is sufficient
• Its all connected
• We must take an Earth System perspective in
  restructuring our fuel energy infrastructure

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Impacts of the energy sector
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CO2 emission by sector
Energy Information Agency, 2004
www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/aeotab_18.pdf
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Example Air pollution
Source US EPA National Air Pollutant Emission
Trends 1900-1998
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The prize
Renewable energy produced sustainably
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Some history
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Global agricultural land use
movie from www.sage.wisc.edu
Source Foley et al., Science, 2005, Ramankutty
Foley, 1999
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Starting with a T
As early as the late 1880s, Otto and Ford made
engines that could run on ethanol. The 1908 Ford
model T was equipped with a flexi-fuel engine.
Alchohol-gasoline blends were popular in the
1930s. Then we lost interest...
Ford model T, vintage 1908
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Meeting energy goals
We must explore every reasonable prospect for
meeting our energy needs when our current
domestic reserves of oil and natural gas begin to
dwindle in the next decade. I urgently ask
Congress and the new administration to move
quickly on these issues. This Nation has the
resources and the capability to achieve our
energy goals if its Government has the will to
proceed, and I think we do.
Proalcool in Brazil...
Gerald R. Ford State of the Union Address, 1975
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A case in point corn ethanol
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Making ethanol fuel
Fuel!
Solomon, et al., Biomass Bioenergy 31, 416-425,
2007.
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Economics of ethanol production
CA cost of ethanol production CC cost of
corn CK cost of capital investment CL cost of
labor CE cost of energy CM cost of raw
materials CO other costs PDDGS price of
distillers dried grains with solids (co-product)
Whats wrong with this picture?
Solomon, et al., Biomass Bioenergy 31, 416-425,
2007.
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Sustainable bioenergy production

• Infrastructure and logistics of operations
• Efficiency and economics of operations
• Social issues and community development
• Effects of intensive cultivation on site
  productivity
• Identifying barriers to communication

after J. Richardson, Biomass Bioenergy 30,
999-1000, 2006.
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Life cycle analysis of biofuels
E.D. Larson, GEFSTAP Workshop, New Delhi, 29 Aug
- 1 Sept 2005
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Low input, high diversity biofuel
Increasing CO2 sequest-ered in soils with
increasing diversity little or no fertilizer or
irrigation required
Tilman et al., Science 314, 1598-1600, 2006
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Meeting energy goals
Nakicenovic, et al. 1998. Global Energy
Perspectives
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Choices, choices...
Transportation method
Economic stimulus for use
Crop choice
Pre-treatment necessary?
Fossil fuel replacement
Vehicle technology
Irrigation?
Production process
Distribution system
Monoculture or diverse crops?
Consumer acceptance
Fertilizer or pesticides?
C sequestration or release?
Environmental impact of production plant
Use
Competition with food use?
Energy source for plant
Displacement of other crops/forests
Useful or harmful co-products?
Soil degradation
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Causes for LCA variability

• Climate-active species included in calculation of
  equivalent GHG emissions
• Assumptions around N2O emissions
• Calculation of value and energy credit for
  co-products
• Soil carbon dynamics

E.D. Larson, GEFSTAP Workshop, New Delhi, 29 Aug
- 1 Sept 2005
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Its all connected
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Amazonian land use changes
1975
Changes in Rondonia (central Amazon basin)
http//visibleearth.nasa.gov/
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Amazonian land use changes
1986
Changes in Rondonia (central Amazon basin)
http//visibleearth.nasa.gov/
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Amazonian land use changes
1992
Changes in Rondonia (central Amazon basin)
http//visibleearth.nasa.gov/
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Amazonian land use changes
2001
Changes in Rondonia (central Amazon basin)
http//visibleearth.nasa.gov/
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Vegetation and clouds
Illustration Paulo Artaxo, Univ. São Paulo
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Planetary teleconnections
Snyder, et al., unpublished data see also
Snyder, et al., Climate Dynamics 23, 279-302,
2004 Werth Avissar, JGR 107 (D20), 8087, 2002
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and how they work
after Snyder, et al., Climate Dynamics 23,
279-302, 2004
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The prize
Renewable energy produced sustainably
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The scientific pyramid of Djoser
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Conclusions
Moving towards renewable energy is a good
thing No single solution or technology will
suffice Externalities need to be accounted for
in economic analyses of renewable sources An
Earth system perspective is necessary All sectors
are necessary to affect change based on our best
knowledge of the coupled human-environmental
system We need to establish a lasting forum for
communication between the science, policy and
private sectors - a safe, authorized space
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Thanks for your attention!