P1251949354lIOuC

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Climate Change Impacts on Eastern US Ecosystems
Steven McNulty USDA Forest Service Southern
Global Change Program Raleigh, NC
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Global Warming

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2000

The Earths climate system has demonstrably
changed on both global and regional scales since
the pre-industrial era, with some of these
changes attributable to human activities.
American Geophysical Union, 2003 Human
activities are increasingly altering the Earths
climate
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400,000 Years of Antarctic CO2 and Temperature
Change
Source Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST,
2001
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Northern Hemisphere Carbon Emissions
Source Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST,
2000
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Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations
Source Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST,
2000
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Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature
Source Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST,
2000
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Simulations of the response to natural forcings
alone do not explain the warming in the second
half of the century SPM
Stott et al, Science 2000
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..model estimates that take into account both
greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols are
consistent with observations over this period
SPM
Stott et al, Science 2000
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Temperature Trends 1901 to 1998
Red circles reflect warming Blue circles reflect
cooling All Stations/Trends displayed regardless
of statistical significance. Source National
Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA
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Precipitation Trends 1901 to 1998
Blue circles reflect increasing precipitation
Red circles reflect decreasing precipitation All
Stations/Trends displayed regardless of
statistical significance. Source National
Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA
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OBSERVED EARTH SYSTEMS RESPONSES
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Arctic sea ice gets thinner
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Montana 376,000km2
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Arctic Sea Ice Cover Observation and Simulation

• onset of decrease in ice extent
• accelerated decrease

(Vinnikov et al., 1999, Science Chapter 7)
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Percent of the continental USA with a much above
normal proportion of total annual precipitation
from 1-day extreme events (more than 2 inches or
50.8mm)
BW 7
Karl et al. 1996
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OBSERVED BIOSPHERIC RESPONSES
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BLEACHING OF CORAL REEFS BY OCEAN TEMPS gt 85deg
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Locations of Coral Reef Bleaching
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Spring bud-burst dates for Aspen in Edmonton,
Beaubien and Freeland I.J.Biomet 4453-59, 2000
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The increase in growing season length over the
last 50 years averaged for eight stations in
Alaska having the longest and most consistent
temperature records.
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Eastern US Ecosystem Response to Climate Change
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Projected US Primary Energy Consumption
Modern bio-fuels
100
Oil
80
60
Gas
Exajoules
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20
Coal
1997 UNEP GSER Chapter 4
0
2050
1970
1990
2010
2030
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Simulated Temperature over the US
Source Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST,
2000
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Precipitation Change Current Potential
Source Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST,
2000
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Temperature Change Current Potential
Source Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST,
2000
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Forest Productivity Across The Eastern US
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Flow Chart of PEcon linked forest growth,
biodiversity, and economics model
Climate
Spatial
FIA
Update Equilibrium
Update Inventory
?Volume1
PnET-CN
SRTS
?Volume2
Allocate Harvest
Calculate Growth
?Volume3
Calculate Acres Harvested
Update Acres
FIA Plot
Inventory and Harvest
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1
YEAR 1
Annual, Regional loop

• Climate
• Spatial
• Vegetation

PnET Parameters
FIA
Spp/Plot level loop

• Timber Value
• Market Availability

3
2
FIA disturbance Mortality
Initialize Plot
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V Threshold Met?
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SRTS harvest ?V
Volume/ Fire Fuel
5a
N
Regeneration
Y
5b
Competition At spp level
Spp level competition for PAR
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Spp level PnET-CN Growth ?V

• Water Yield
• ET

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Forest Timber and Pulpwood Growth
Likely Impacts The climate and forest growth
models suggest that timber and pulpwood
productivity potential will increase on the
over most of the eastern US during the next 50
years. However, these models do not account
for the potential increases in wild fires on
the forest. Increased wild fires could greatly
reduce overall forest productivity
Management There is no anticipated need to
alter management Options
practices to increase forest growth due to
climate but an additional study should
be conducted to assess the
potential impact of climate change on wild fire
frequency and severity across the
region
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Forest Economic Impacts
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Timberland Acreage Shift 1993 2040 No Climate
Change Baseline
gt 25 DECLINE 5-25 DECLINE lt5
CHANGE 5-25 INCREASE
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Timberland Acreage Shifts by 2040 Due to Hadley
Climate Change
5-25 DECLINE lt5 CHANGE 5-25
INCREASE
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Regional Water Yield Across the Southern US
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Regional Water Stress Across the Southern US
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Regional Water Supply and Demand
Issue Assess current and potential future
changes in regional water supply and demand
across the eastern US
Objective Determine if forest and agricultural
lands will continue to be a source of water
for the region during a period of climate
change and increased human population growth.
Method Current and future water yield for the
eastern US was calculated using hydrologic
models, population data and climate
projections in a GIS.
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Zhang AET Model Translation of AG NPP 1990
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Zhang AET Model Translation of AG NPP 2025
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Annual Drainage (mm) 1990
5 mm 861 mm
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Population 1990
lt 250,000

gt3,500,000
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Population Change 1990 -2025
-20 0 500
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Water Availability Relative to Demand by 2025
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Water Availability Relative to Demand Change by
2025
-31 - 0 1 - 50 51 - 100 101 - 508
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Regional Water Supply and Demand
Likely Impacts Regionally the eastern US will
not have significant water shortages by 2050.
However, local water shortages already exist
during some drought years. This number and
severity of water shortage will be greatly
expanded largely due to increase population
pressures on water resources.
Management Large scale water conservation
practices and water options transport
will likely be needed to reduce future local
water deficits practices to increase water
yield until at least 2050.
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3.0
2.5
Recent Trends in Wild Fire Acreage
2.0

1.5
Millions of hectares
1.0
0.5
0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
2004
Year
Historically, large fires are possible in the
eastern US in 1947, over 8.4 million ha of
forest were burned in the southern US (out of of
87 million ha total southern forest)
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Biomass Mapping
Fuel Modeling
Fire Risk Scenarios
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Field Data Sampling Design and Collection

• Plot Location
• Random for Pocosin
• Stratified Random for Mountains
• Plot Centers Located with GPS
• Sampling Intensity
• 1 Plot / 2 Ha of Vegetation Type

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Wildland Fire Fuels by Size Class
1 Mg/ha 0.4 tons/acre Estimates are based on
778 FIA P3 plots in 27 eastern states (2001)
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Wildland Fire Fuels DWM vs. Tree
1 Mg/ha 0.4 tons/acre Estimates are based on
99,312 plots in FIA database (2000)
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Wildland Fire Fuels by State
1 Tg 1,000,000 tons Estimates are based on
99,312 plots in FIA database (2000)
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Soil Erosion
Issue To assess current and potential future
soil erosion and stream sediment across the
Uwharrie National Forest.
Objective Locate and reduce sources of current
and future soil erosion with a special
emphasis sediment entering streams.
Method Current and future soil erosion was
calculated using soil erosion models, UNF data
and climate projections in a GIS.
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Uwharrie National Forest Current Soil Erosion Map
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Areas of Soil Erosion By 2030 On UNF
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Areas of Soil Erosion By 2030 On UNF
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Soil Erosion
Likely Impacts Areas of soil erosion will
increase by approximately 25 due to increased
rainfall intensity, and more of the UNF will
have sediment entering watershed streams.
Management Use BMPs to reduce or eliminate
current erosion Options problem
areas and monitor other areas for future
sources of soil sediment.
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Conclusions
1. There was insufficient understanding, and data
to implement climate change science into
land management decision making for the first
10 years of the US Global Change Research
Program.
2. Scientists are now beginning to have
sufficient confidence in monitoring trends,
experimental studies, and predictive models to
assess future hazards to forest ecosystems.

• Scientists are now beginning to work with state,
  private and federal land
• managers to develop plans for coping, minimizing
  or negating negative
• climate change impacts on ecosystems.

4. Climate change considerations will
increasingly become part of l land
management planning during the coming years even
as our understanding of potential climate
change consequences (both good and bad)
improves.