Connecticut Outlook 2002:1 to 2006:4

1
Connecticut Outlook20021 to 20064

• Edward J. Deak, Ph.D.
• Professor of Economics
• Fairfield University
• Connecticut Model Manager NEEP

2
Tracking the CT Recession

• CT Indicator Best Low Diff Mar 2002
• Nonag Emply 7/00 12/01 -28.9k 1,672.5k
• 1,701k 1,672k
• Unemply Rate 6-8/00 12/01 1.9 3.5
• 2.1 4.0
• Wkly New Clms 9/00 10/01 2,886 4,764
• 3,168 6,054
• Labor Force 7/00 3/02 -45k 1,708k
• 1,753k 1,708k

3
CT Forecast 2002

• Indicator 2001 2002 ?CT ?US
• Jobs (mil) 1.683 1.675 -0.5 -0.6
• Mfg Jobs(th) 254 245 -3.7 -3.7
• Serv Jobs (th) 1,119 1,117 -0.2 0.0
• RPer Inc (B96) 133.7 133.3 -0.3 0.1
• UE Rate () 3.3 4.1 5.9
• Home Pmts 9,011 8,818 -2.2 -5.2
• Lab Force (mil) 1.718 1.716 -0.1 0.8
• RGSP (B96) 155.79 159.04 2.1 1.8

4
New Unemployment Claims
5
Major Job Cuts 10/01-4/02

• Clairol 720 Chemicals
• B/E Aerospace 350 Aerospace
• Bindley Western 200 Wholesale
• Black Decker 200 - Appliances
• Hamilton-Sund 350 Aerospace
• GE Capital 250 - Financial Services
• Skandia 120 Financial Services
• Gerber Scientific 150 Instruments
• Praxair 100 Aerospace
• Milford Fronton 220 - Services

6
Major Job Addition 10/01-4/02

• Pratt Whitney 700 Aerospace
• Mohegan Sun 500 Government
• Electric Boat 500 Transportation
• Sikorsky Aircraft 150 Transportation
• Fleet Financial 100 Fin Services
• Wal-Mart 250 Retail
• Home Depot 120 Retail
• Burlington Coat 100 - Retail

7
CT Forecast to 2006

• CT Indicator 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
• Jobs (mil) 1.675 1.697 1.722 1.733 1.745
• Mfg Jobs (th) 244.6 248.7 250.8 250.1 249.4
• Serv Jobs (mil) 1.117 1.135 1.159 1.172 1.185
• Per Inc (B96) 133.3 134.7 137.4 139.8 142.2
• Home Pmts 8,818 8,971 8,831 8,873 8,911
• Lab Force (mil) 1.716 1.726 1.732 1.740 1,749
• RGSP (B96) 159.0 165.3 170.2 175.3 180.5
• Pop (mil) 3.436 3.441 3.445 3.450 3.455

8
Trends in CT Indicators 1999-2006
9
Employment Sector Changes1996-01 vs. 2001-06
10
CT Demographics

• Indicator U.S. CT Mass
• Pop 4/1/00 mil 281.421 3.405 6.349
• Pop 4/1/90 mil 248.710 3.287 6.016
• Chg 1990-00 13.1 3.6 5.5
• Male-Female 49.1-50.9 48.4-51.6 48.2-51.8
• White-Black 75.1-12.3 81.6-9.1 84.5-5.4
• Hisp-Asian 12.5-3.6 9.4-2.4 6.8-3.8
• lt18 years 25.7 24.7 23.6
• gt65 years 12.4 13.6 13.5
• Median age yrs 35.3 37.4 36.5

11
CT County Demographics

• County Pop ? W/B lt18 gt65 Median Age
• Fairfield 6.6 79-10 25.6 13.3 37.3
• Hartford 0.6 77-12 24.6 14.7 37.7
• Litchfld 4.7 96-1 24.6 14.2 39.6
• Middlesex 8.3 91-4 23.2 13.6 38.6
• New Hvn 2.5 79-11 24.5 14.5 37.0
• New Lndn 1.6 87-5 24.4 13.0 37.0
• Tolland 6.0 92-3 23.1 10.2 35.7
• Windham 6.4 91-2 25.1 12.3 36.3

12
CT Forecast Risks

• National
• Energy prices
• Federal Reserve interest rate hikes
• Lackluster equity markets
• Global instability
• State
• Resolution of State Budget deficit
• Energy cost availability
• Defense IT spending