Crime, Punishment, and Myopia

1
Crime, Punishment, and Myopia

2
Model
3
Does Tougher Sentencing Deter Crime?

• CißSiei. What is ß?
• Method 1 - GeographicalIf cities or states with
  low crime have heavier sentences, then this shows
  that tough crime sentences deter crime.
• A. True
• B. False

4
Does Tougher Sentencing Deter Crime?

• CißSiei. What is ß?
• Method 1 - GeographicalVermont has lighter crime
  sentences than New York and less crime than New
  York.Does that mean light sentences cause less
  crime?
• NO! Vermont differs from NY. Maybe lighter crime
  causes lower sentences, not the other way
  around.

5
Does Tougher Sentencing Deter Crime?

• Method 2 Time Series
• NY used to have more crime. They increased
  sentences and now they have less crime. This
  shows increased sentences deterred crime.
• A. True
• B. False

6
Does Tougher Sentencing Deter Crime?

• Method 2 Time Series
• NY used to have more crime. They increased
  sentences and now they have less crime. This
  shows increased sentences deterred crime.
• No! Lots of other things happened at the same
  time. Maybe one of these things caused the
  reduction. Community based policing
• Maybe laws were made tougher because everyone was
  starting to take crime seriously and they started
  locking their doors and buying burglar alarms.

7
Additional Problem

• Even if tougher sentences are found to reduce
  crime, we do not know if this is deterrent
  effect. Could simply be that criminals are locked
  up.

8
Solution

• Look at change in penalties that is not tied to
  other possible determining factors.
• Turning 18.

9
Problem

• People commit fewer crimes as they get older.
• Maybe well find a crime reduction at 18 not
  because of stiffer sentences but simply because
  older teens commit fewer crimes.
• Is this a serious problem?
• A. Yes
• B. No

10
Problem

• People commit fewer crimes as they get older.
• Maybe well find a crime reduction at 18 not
  because of stiffer sentences but simply because
  older teens commit fewer crimes
• KEY POINT Those processes are gradual or smooth.
  The penalty change is abrupt.

11

12

13

14
Objection

• Maybe 18 year olds dont really get charged as
  adults, despite the law, because courts go easy
  on them.
• Does the paper find that 18 year olds get stiffer
  sentences?
• Yes
• No

15

16

17
Conclusions

• Do you think stiff sentences deter crime?
• A. Yes
• B. No

18
Conclusions

• Do you think stiff sentences deter crime?
• Maybe it depends on the population in question