Impact Evaluation at MCC

1
Impact Evaluation at MCC

• Introduction Brief overview of ME at MCC

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Roads Project Evaluation - Ghana

• Less opportunity for randomization, except
  potentially with respect to timing
• Obtain list of prioritized roads in all districts
• Compare market price of maize at local market X,
  which is scheduled for new feeder road, with that
  at market Y, which already has feeder road
• Examine that comparison before and after
  completion of new road.
• Compare across districts where new feeder roads
  have been completed and not been completed.
• Try to look at impact resulting from building
  roads in areas with and without Farmer-Based
  Organizations (FBOs).

3
Roads Project Evaluation - Georgia

• Rehabilitation of the Samtskhe-Javakheti Road
• Approx. 250 km Tbilisi to Akhaltsikhe and down
  to the Turkish and Armenian borders
• Will connect Tbilisi with the S-J region, an area
  with significant agricultural and tourism
  potential, but currently isolated with limited
  economic activity and high poverty
• Rehabilitation/ Construction slated to begin in
  Spring 2007
• Expected benefits increased agricultural
  production and trade, improved transport
  accessibility, reduced ethnic and cultural
  isolation

4
Roads Project Evaluation- Georgia Cont.

• Impact Evaluation
• Independent Evaluator NORC/ University of
  Chicago
• Methodology - Propensity Score Match with
  Double-Difference
• Use of GIS data to calculate an accessibility
  index for each village surrounding the road,
  which becomes a key variable in determining
  treatment and control groups in the PSM analysis
• Because access index is a continuous measure, the
  variance between treatment and control groups is
  continuous, and provides a more robust measure
  than a binary division between the groups
• Key impact variables poverty rate and average
  household income of villages in the treatment and
  control groups
• Combined approach and models will measure not
  only project impact on economic growth and
  poverty reduction, but also will allow for the
  prediction of economic impacts of future road
  projects in Georgia and study of interaction
  effects between S-J road project and other donor
  interventions in roads and agriculture