K12 And Beyond Minnesota Demographic Change And Challenges

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K-12 And BeyondMinnesota Demographic Change And
Challenges Opportunities

• Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer
• Mn Dept of Administration
• October 2005

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Minnesota Has Been Very Successful, (Especially
For A Cold Weather State at the End of the Road)

• Our economy no longer depends on our resource
  base
• Our economic growth rate has exceeded the
  national average
• We rank with the leaders on many social and
  economic indicators
• Education has been a key contributor to the
  states success

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Minnesota Is Now Substantially Above Average In
Per Capita Personal Income
US Bureau of Economic Analysis. In 1950 Mn was
1.87 of US total personal income. In 2004 Mn
was 1.89 of US total personal income
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Minnesota Has Made Great Strides In Education
Since 1950
Census
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Minnesota Ranks Highly In Many Social/Economic
Indicators

• 4th lowest poverty rate
• 3rd percent of 16-64 employed
• 1st percent with health insurance
• 1st home ownership
• 8th median family income
• 10th in personal income per capita in 2004 - 25th
  in 1960

• 11th Per capita disposable income
• 4th percent of children in married couple
  families
• 2nd percent with at least high school diploma
• 1st United Health Foundation ranking of state
  healthiness
• 3rd Kids Count 2005

Selected indicators for 2004
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Minnesota is Prosperous, But

• We still have people in need and those people can
  get lost in a sea of prosperity
• Part of the reason we are so special is that we
  are not very diverse. This is changing
• Aging will move our attention away from issues of
  children and youth
• Our future depends in great degree on how we
  resolve disparities especially in education and
  health

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Minnesota is GrowingRapidly For The Frost Belt

• Minnesota adds about half a million people per
  decade713,000 by 2020
• Census Bureau has us growing faster than any
  other Midwest and northeast state
• Projections have us maintaining our 8
  congressional seats

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Many Social/Economic Indicators Are Related And
Also Related To Big Demographic Trends

• Suburbanization
• Aging
• Increased diversity

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Most Growth Is In The Twin City Suburban Doughnut

• Twin Cities accounts for 78 of growth in the
  state
• Suburban ring is spreading outward
• 7 of 13 metro counties in fastest 100 growing of
  the nation
• Rural and central city declines sine 1950
• Population growth is related to economic
  growthhuge differences exist in life experiences
  and prosperity

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Aging Is The Dominant Demographic Trend In
Minnesota And The Nation

• It is not normal for a society to age
• Dramatic changes will be seen in 2008 and 2011
  and beyond
• By 2020, the number of Minnesotans 65 will
  increase by 53. By 2030 it will double

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This Decade And Next Will See Dramatic
Differences In Growth In Key Age Groups
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Minnesotas Boom Generation Begins Turning 65 in
2011
Census counts State Demographer projection
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Competition For The Future Workforce Will Increase
Census Bureau US Proj, Mn State Demographer Mn
Proj
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Uncertainty!Labor Force Projections Depend On
Migration And Retirement Decisions
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Minnesota is Growing More Diverse

• Minnesota is not very diverse13 minority v US
  32
• Over half of total population growth this decade
  is minority.
• Diversity also means culture, language, religion,
  national originall changing

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Students Of Color Are Increasing While White
Students Are Declining
Mn Dept of Education data
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Minnesota 2003-04 High School Graduation
RatiosLarge Differences Exist
Based on 10th grade enrollment in 2001-02, MnDOE
enrollment data
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2004 The National Center For Public Policy And
Higher Education
Minnesota has performed better than most states
over the past decade in providing an affordable
higher education for students and families.
Minnesota is among only a few states that have
held the line over the past decade in the
percentage of income that students and families
pay to attend the states two-year colleges.
Minnesotas high scores in preparation mask
disparities in college enrollment by ethnicity
and family income.
POLICY QUESTIONS 1.Can the state increase the
proportion of students who finish high school
within four years? 2. Can the states four-year
colleges and universities be made more
affordable, particularly for low- and
middle-income families? 3. Can Minnesota close
the gaps in educational achievement between
whites and minority ethnic residents?
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Aging Of Society Will Have Profound Impacts On
Resource Allocation

• Older voters often more fiscally conservative
  electorate
• Health care costs will increase
• Shift in government priorities to issues of aging
  and health
• State tax base will be affected as baby boom
  reaches retirement age

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Minnesotas Boom Generation Begins Turning 65 in
2011
Census counts State Demographer projection
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Summary

• Minnesota has been very successful
• We are in a period of rapid and critical change.
  
• What we do today will shape our future for the
  next quarter century.
• Slower labor force growth heightens importance of
  productivity growth

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How will Minnesotans 50 years from now view our
generations stewardship?