Housing and The Regional Economy

1
Housing and The Regional Economy

• Commonwealth Housing Task Force
• Barry Bluestone
• Dean, School of Social Science, Urban Affairs,
  and Public Policy
• Director, Center for Urban and Regional Policy
• Northeastern University
• The Boston Foundation
• April 24, 2007

2
Massachusetts Employment Trends and Population
Dynamics
3
(No Transcript)
4
(No Transcript)
5
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
6
U.S. Bureau of the Census
7

U.S. Census Bureau
8
U.S. Bureau of the Census
9
Where did they go?
10
Greater Boston Median Single Family Home Price
1987-2006
Source The Warren Group Publications
11
2005Class A Apartment Rents
Source Forbes Magazine
Calculations based on 900 Sq.Ft. Apartment
12
Boston 64,656
Universe 304 U.S. Metro Areas
Source Economic Policy Institute, Family Budget
Calculator, 2005
13
Greater Boston Family Budget 4 Person Family
with 2 Children
Among 304 U.S. Metropolitan Areas

• Housing Costs 7th Highest MSA
• Child Care 7th Highest MSA
• Health Care 7th Highest MSA
• Personal Care 6th Highest MSA
• Fed/State Tax 2nd Highest MSA
• Total Cost 1st Highest MSA

Economic Policy Institute, Family Budget
Calculator, 2005
14
Top Decile Metro Area Cost of Living

• Boston 64,656
• Washington (D.C. portion) 61,440
• Nassau-Suffolk, NY 60,780
• Stamford-Norwalk, CN 60,720
• Lawrence (Mass. portion) 59,280
• New York, NY 58,656
• Barnstable-Yarmouth, MA 58,236
• San Francisco, CA 57,624
• Worcester (Mass. portion) 55,704
• Springfield, MA 55,320
• Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN 54,948
• Nashua, NH 54,852
• Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA 53,808
• Oakland, CA 53,412
• San Jose, CA 52,800
• Pittsfield, MA 52,632
• Rochester, MN 51,288

• Monmouth-Ocean, NJ 50,736
• San Diego, CA 50,088
• Newark, NJ 49,992
• New Haven-Meriden, CN 49,848
• Honolulu, HI 49,824
• Philadelphia (Pa. portion) 49,716
• Boulder-Longmont, CO 49,596
• Bridgeport, CN 49,272
• Manchester, NH 49,152
• Santa Rosa, CA 48,924
• Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY 48,900
• Hartford, CN 48,684
• Trenton, NJ 48,576
• Rochester, NY 48,540

Universe 304 U.S. Metro Areas
Economic Policy Institute Family Budget
Calculator
15
A Tale of Two CitiesBasic Budget2 Parents, 2
Children
A Tale of Two
Cities

• Boston
• Monthly Housing 1,266
• Monthly Food 587
• Monthly Child Care 1,298
• Monthly Transportation 321
• Monthly Health Care 592
• Monthly Other Necessity 500
• Monthly Taxes 824
• Monthly Total 5,388
• Annual Total 64,656

• Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill
• Monthly Housing 779
• Monthly Food 587
• Monthly Child Care 866
• Monthly Transportation 358
• Monthly Health Care 368
• Monthly Other Necessity 369
• Monthly Taxes 350
• Monthly Total 3,677
• Annual Total 44,124

Source Economic Policy Institute, Family Budget
Calculator, 2005
16
Boston (1,266)
Source Economic Policy Institute, Family Budget
Calculator, 2005
17
The Impact of Housing Prices and Cost of Living
on the Massachusetts Economy

• Impact on Employment
• Impact on Net Internal Migration

18
2.91
2.29
0.95
1.53
1.49
0.86
0.68
0.12
-0.68
-0.62
Low Price
High Price
Universe 245 U.S. Metro Areas
Economic Policy Institute, Family Budget
Calculator, 2005 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
Boston MSA (-4.9)

Universe 245 U.S. Metro Areas
Economic Policy Institute, Family Budget
Calculator, 2005 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
20
2.53
1.98
1.09
1.06
0.93
0.84
0.62
0.50
-0.02
-0.21
Low Cost
High Cost
Universe 245 U.S. Metro Areas
Economic Policy Institute, Family Budget
Calculator, 2005 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
21
Boston MSA (-5.2)
Universe 304 U.S. Metro Areas
Economic Policy Institute, Family Budget
Calculator, 2005 U.S. Bureau of the Census
22
Universe 304 U.S. Metro Areas
Economic Policy Institute, Family Budget
Calculator, 2005 U.S. Bureau of the Census
23
The Massachusetts Housing Pipeline

• A Good Start at Permitting New Housing

24
Housing Unit Pipeline in Greater Boston
2003-2005
1993-2002
Source U.S. Census pre-1980 compiled by BRA
Research Department
25
The Smart Growth 40R Housing Pipeline
26
(No Transcript)
27
Lagging Starter Homes
28
Housing Production Up in Massachusetts but
Still a Lingering Problem for Young Families
29
New Starter Home Proposal

• Proposing new legislation to encourage voluntary
  local zoning for modest priced starter homes
• 1,700 s.f./3 Bedroom
• 5-8 units per acre
• Affordable units at 150 of AMI
• State pays 100 of local school costs
• State local aid bonuses to encourage re-zoning
  and permitting
• Higher bonuses than Chapter 40R Payments

30
CHTF 2007 Agenda

• Continue to encourage municipalities to adopt
  Chapter 40R
• Work with Governor and Legislature to assure
  permanent funding for 40R and 40S
• Develop new legislative program for starter
  homes
• Develop new program for low income family rental
  housing using innovative financing mechanisms