Activity Modeling Initiatives

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Activity Modeling Initiatives

• Ken Cervenka, P.E., AICP
• North Central Texas Council Of Governments
• For
• AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group Meeting
• Berkeley, California
• September 8, 2005

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MPO CoalitionActivity Model Listserv

• Mission Statement
• MPO Coalition for the Examination and
  Advancement
• of Activity-Based Models for Use in
  Transportation
• Planning Applications
• 27 MPOs (97 Million People) Are Represented
• 46 Of All MPO Population
• 34 Of Total U.S. Population
• 8 MPOs (34 Million People) With Some Direct
  Activity
• Model Involvement

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Activity Model ListservAnd Related Web Sites

• Listserv Activity_Model_at_yahoogroups.com
• MTCs FTP Site
• ftp//198.31.87.7/pub/mtc/planning/activity_mo
  del/
• NCTCOGs Next Generation Modeling Page
  http//www.nctcog.org/trans/modeling/Next_Generati
  on.html
• TMIPs Clearinghouse Page
• http//tmip.fhwa.dot.gov/clearinghouse/browse/

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TRB Initial State Of The Practice Survey
Results MPOs Considering Activity/Tour Models

• MPOs lt 200,000 Population
• 22 (Of 100 Responses)
• MPOs From 200,000 To 1,000,000 Population
• 21 (Of 63 Responses)
• MPOs Over One Million Population
• 43 (Of 28 Responses)

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Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 1)

• SACOG (Sacramento Area Council Of Governments)
• Phase 1 Development Underway
• Consultant Team John Bowman and Mark
  Bradley
• DRCOG (Denver Regional Council Of Governments)
• Consultants Scope Of Work, Budget, And
  Schedule Are
• Being Finalized
• Prime Cambridge Systematics

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Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 2)

• NYMTC (New York Metropolitan Transportation
• Council)
• Recently Used For AQ Conformity Analysis Work
• Performing Sensitivity Tests On Value Of Time
• At Contractual Stage For Sensitivity Tests By
  Local University

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Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 3)

• MORPC (Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission,
• Columbus)
• Used For AQ Conformity And All
  Roadway/Transit Studies
• Some Refinements By Original Developer (PB
  Consult) Underway
• AECOM Hired To Review Readiness For New
  Starts DEIS
• Ohio DOT Staff (Rebekah Anderson) Is
  (Temporarily) Helping
• The MPO Out, As They Look For A New
  Modeler

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Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 4)

• Ohio DOT Developing Statewide Tour-Based Model
• Prime Consultant Parsons Brinckerhoff
• 8-Year Development Program
• 6 Million For Data Collection And 2.5
  Million For The
• Consultants Model Development
• Interim Model Completed Two Years Ago
• Final Model Scheduled For 2006/2007 Completion

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Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 5)

• Other Statewide Models With Some Tour-Based
  Elements
• New Hampshire
• Michigan
• Oregon (Calibration Under Way)

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Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 6)

• San Francisco County Model Actively Used Since
  2002
• Billy Charlton, Principal Transportation
  Planner
• MTC (Metropolitan Transportation Commission)
• 250,000 Consultant Contract For Phase 1
• Travel Model Specifications
• Trip Chaining Procedures
• Model Estimation Training
• On-Call Model Estimation Oversight
• Model Implementation Support

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Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 7)

• Portland Metro (Oregon), In-House Development
• Used For Pricing Scenarios in 1998/1999
• Full Calibration/Validation Was Not Completed
• TRANSIMS-Portland
• U.S. DOT-Sponsored Development/Testing
• Major Consultant Involvement
• Expected Completion In 2006

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Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 8)

• ARC (Atlanta Regional Commission)
• 500,000 Spent Annually For Modeling Services
  Contract, With
• 100,000 Dedicated To Activity-Based
  Development
• Population Synthesizer Is Up And Running
• Desired 2007 Activity Model Completion
• Expectations For Parallel Two-Track Modeling
  (For Awhile)

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Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 9)

• Calgary, Alberta (Canada)
• Existing Tour-Based Microsimulation Model For
  Commercial
• Vehicles
• Developing Region-Wide Activity-Based Model
  For Weekend Travel
• Longer-Term Plans For Full Weekday
  Activity-Based Model
• Clark County, Nevada (Las Vegas Area)
• Household Microsimulation Travel Demand Model
  (Caliper)
• STEP2Builds Upon Greig Harveys STEP Policy
  Analysis Tool
• For The San Francisco Area

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Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 10)

• VISEM Applications (PTV)
• Dubai, United Arab Emirates
• Beijing, China
• Munich And Cologne, Germany
• Vienna, Austria
• Grenoble And Lille, France
• Luxembourg, Luxembourg

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Known Activity-BasedModeling Work (Slide 11)

• EPA Three-Year Project (2004 STAR B-1)
• Paul Waddell As Principal Investigator
• Integration Of Land Use And Activity Location
  Modeling
• Project Kicks Off This Month (September 2005)
• CEMDAP (Comprehensive Econometric Microsimulator
• For Generating Daily Activity-Travel Patterns)
• University Of Texas At Austin (Chandra Bhat)
• TxDOT State Planning Research Funding
  (589,100 Spent Since
• 2001 135,000 For One-Year Extension)

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CEMDAP Work(Now To August 31, 2006)

• Implement And Test 4874-Zone Activity-Based Model
  For
• The 5,000 Square Mile Dallas-Fort Worth Area
• Use NCTCOG Model For Truck Trips And All
  External Trips
• Prepare 1999 And 2025 CEMDAP Model Runs
• Year 1999 Validation Checks
• Compare 1999 And 2025 Against NCTCOGs
  Four-Step Model
• Prepare And Document Model Sensitivity Tests
• Implement Several Hypothetical Scenarios
• Both CEMDAP And NCTCOG Model Tests

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Existing DFW 4-Step Model
ZONE LAYER
DEMOGRAPHIC INFORMATION
TRIP GENERATION
ROADWAY NETWORK
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
ROADWAY SKIMS
MODE CHOICE
TRANSIT NETWORK
LOOP
ROADWAY ASSIGNMENT
TRANSIT SKIMS
TRAVEL TIME CONVERGENCE
INPUT
NO
PROCESS
YES
DECISION
TRANSIT ASSIGNMENT
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DFW Model With CEMDAP In Place
ZONE LAYER
DEMOGRAPHIC INFORMATION
CEMDAP
ROADWAY NETWORK
CEMDAP
ROADWAY SKIMS
CEMDAP
TRANSIT NETWORK
LOOP
ROADWAY ASSIGNMENT
TRANSIT SKIMS
TRAVEL TIME CONVERGENCE
INPUT
NO
PROCESS
YES
DECISION
TRANSIT ASSIGNMENT
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