Michiko Masutani

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Progress in Joint OSSEs Internationally
collaborative Full OSSEs sharing the same Nature
Run
New High Resolution Nature Runs
Michiko Masutani
NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC
http//www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/JointOSSEs h
ttp//www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/THORPEX/osse
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NCEP Michiko Masutani, John S. Woollen, Yucheng
Song, Daryl Kleist, Stephen J. Lord, Zoltan
Toth JCSDA Lars Peter Riishojgaard (NASA/GFSC),
Fuzhong Weng (NESDIS) NESDIS Haibing Sun, Tong
Zhu, Sid Boukabara, Min-Jeong Kim SWA G. David
Emmitt, Sidney A. Wood, Steven Greco NASA/GFSC
Ron Errico, Emily Liu, Oreste Reale, Joe Terry,
Juan Juseum, Gail McConaughy , Runhua Yang,
Chaojiao Sun NOAA/ESRLTom Schlatter, Yuanfu Xie,
Nikki Prive, Dezso Devenyi, Steve
Weygandt ECMWF Erik Andersson KNMI Ad
Stoffelen, Gert-Jan Marseille MSU/GRI Valentine
Anantharaj, Chris Hill, Pat Fitzpatrick,
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OSSEs will help to design and configuration of
the new instruments OSSE will provide guideline
for development in Data assimilation
systems OSSEs are labour intensive project.
Effective collaboration and effective
distribution of resources will significantly
reduce the cost. This will also speed up the
performance of OSSEs and enhance the credibility
of the results. The date impact depends on how
the data is handled in the DA system.
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U 200 hPa
OSSEs can provide recommendation for DAS
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500km Raob T62L64 anal T62L64 fcst
L64 anlfcst
500km Raob T62L64 anal T62L28 fcst
500km RaobT62L28 anal fcst
L64 anl L28 fcst
1000km RaobT170L42 analT62L28 fcst
CTL
1000km RaobT62L28 anal fcst
T 200 hPa
L64 anlfcst
500km obs
T170 L42 model
High density observation give better analysis but
it could cause poor forecast
High density observations give a better analysis
but could cause a poor forecast
Increasing the vertical resolution was important
for high density observations
L64 anl L28 fcst
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Nature Run Serves as a true atmosphere for
OSSEs Preparation of the Nature Run and
simulation of basic observations consume a
significant amount of resources. If different
NRs are used by various DAs, it is hard to
compare the results.

• Need one good new Nature Run which will be used
  by many OSSEs including regional data
  assimilation.
• Share the simulated data to compare the OSSE
  results by various DA systems to gain confidence
  in results.

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New Nature Run by ECMWF Based on
Recommendations by JCSDA, NCEP, GMAO, GLA, SIVO,
SWA, NESDIS, ESRL
Low Resolution Nature Run Spectral resolution
T511 Vertical levels L91 3 hourly dump Initial
conditions 12Z May 1st, 2005 Ends at 0Z
Jun 1,2006 Daily SST and ICE provided by
NCEP Model Version cy31r1 Completed in July
2006, rerun October 2006
Two High Resolution Nature Run 35 days
long Hurricane season Starting at 12z September
27,2005, Convective precipitation over US
starting at 12Z April 10, 2006 T799 resolution,
91 levels, one hourly dump Get initial conditions
from T511 NR
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Archive and Distribution
To be archived in the MARS systemon the THORPEX
server at ECMWF Accessed by external users
expveretwu
Copies for US are available to designated users
users known to ECMWF Redistribution right not
given (Contact Michiko Masutani
michiko.masutani_at_noaa.gov) To be available from
NASA/GSFC/SIVO and THORPEX server at
NCAR Proposed subset of the data The complete
surface data in reduced Gaussian (N256, N400),
Complete (1x1, 0.5x0.5)pressure level data
Complete (1x1,0.5x0.5) isentropic data A few days
worth model level data to be posted for online
access,  The complete model level data (2.4TB)
must be sent using hard disks. Simulated
observations. Some OSSE results
Supplemental low resolution regular lat lon data
Currently available from NCEP ftp server.
1degx1deg for T511 NR, 0.5degx0.5deg for T799 NR
Pressure level data 31 levels Potential
temperature level data 315,330,350,370,530K Selec
ted time series for surface data Convective
precip, Large scale precip, MSLP,T2m,TD2m,
U10,V10, HCC, LCC, MCC, TCC, Sfc Skin Temp
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Evaluation Diagnostics of the T511 Nature
run(1x1 resolution data)
Only TCLs having a center pressure of less than
1000 hPa in the 1x1 fields and 900 hPa vorticity
greater than 3x10-4 s-1 are considered
Vertical structure of a HL vortex shows, even at
the degraded resolution of 1 deg, a distinct
eye-like feature and a very prominent warm core.
Structure even more impressive than the system
observed in August. Low-level wind speed exceeds
55 m/s
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THE SOUTH AMERICAN LOW LEVEL JETT511 NR 1x1 deg
data Juan Carlos Jusem
The EC-nature run reproduces very well two
outstanding characteristics of the LLJ (a)
Its permanence during the whole year, and (b)
Its peak intensity during night hours. Two
prominent features of the of the LLJ are very
well simulated by EC-NR (a) its persistence all
year round and (b) its peak intensity at night.
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Preliminary concluding remarks on the African
Monson region and tropical Atlantic

• A synoptic assessment of the NR over the AM
  region and the tropical Atlantic shows an overall
  very realistic African Monsoon, AEJ and wave
  activity
• In addition to the 2 major systems with a full
  hurricane-like development up to Aug 31st , at
  least other 9 strong systems (for 1x1 res.)
  develop during September and October
• Several weaker tropical and sub-tropical systems
  are also present
• In spite of a tendency of creating several early
  recurvers, it can be stated that the NR, given
  the resolution limitation, does have a good
  representativeness of tropical cyclone track
  variability in the Atlantic, as it would occur in
  an active season
• This Nature Run seems to represent a very
  promising tool to perform OSSEs over the tropical
  Atlantic

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CURRENT and FUTURE WORK at NASA GSFC (GLA and
SIVO) on the NR validation

• Comprehensive statistics on midlatitude cyclone
  activity have been performed (J. Terry)
• Comprehensive statistics on precipitation (J.C.
  Jusem) are in progress and will be presented in
  the next meeting together with an assessment of
  the South American monsoon
• Analysis of tropical weather over Indian Ocean
  and Asian Monsoon regions with emphasis on the
  Somali Jet, monsoon onset and breaks, tropical
  depressions, is being completed
• An assessment of the Eastern Pacific tropical
  cyclone season is also being completed
• Southern Hemisphere and Western Pacific tropical
  weather systems will be investigated in the near
  future

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Comparison of zonal mean zonal wind jet maxima,
NR and ECMWF analysis, Northern Hemisphere By
Nikki Prive, ESRL
blue ECMWF green star Nature Run
Nikki Prive also presented realistic Rossby wave
and many good storm to test T-PARC experiments
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T799 91 level Nature run 35 day long hourly
dump
1) Hurricane season (completed on
7/2) T799OCT05 Initial condition from T511 at
12z September 27,2005 End at 12 z November 1st,
2005 One strong hurricane over Atlantic.
Another one in central Pacific
2) Spring thunder storm season (Completed on
7/9) T799APR06 Initial condition from T511 at
12z April 10, 2006 End at 12 z May 15,
2006 Good storm over Japan Several thunder
storms over US Four TC in Southern hemisphere
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Quick look using 1degree data
Min MSLP T799 OCT05 period
T511
T799
By Michiko Masutani
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Quick look using 1degree data
Convective Precipitation
3 hour mean 12z-15Z Oct05 2005
T511
T799
By Michiko Masutani
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Quick look using 1degree data
Tropical cyclone in T799NR APR06
T799
By Juan Carlos Jusem
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Quick look using 1degree data
Min MSLP T799 APR06 period
T511
T799
By Michiko Masutani
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Convective Precipitation in Spring
Quick look using 3 hour mean 1degree data
T511
06Z Apr 25, 2006
T799
01Z May 2, 2005
By Michiko Masutani
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1x1 fields for quick look We have received MSLP
and CP Posted at ftp//ftp.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/expe
r/mmasutani/T799NR/OCT05 ftp//ftp.emc.ncep.noaa.
gov/exper/mmasutani/T799NR/APR06 Selected
surface data in 1x1 degree for T511 NR and T799
MSLP,T2m,TD2m, U10,V10, HCC, LCC, MCC, TCC,
Sfc Skin Temp Four 1TB disks are being written
at ECMWF
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Pre cursor assimilation
Conduct data assimilation for entire T511NR
period (13 month) with limited simulated data
set. Include data which can be simulated by
simple interpolation (prepbufr) RAOB, Air
Craft, Aircar, Sat wind DA with spectral
resolution T62 with 64 level model This will to
test the OSSE system. The results could provide
initial condition for other OSSEs.
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Radiance Simulation System for OSSE Lars-Peter
Riigeojgaard, Emily Liu, Ron Errico, Runhua Yang
(NASA/GSFC/GMAO) Tong Zhu, Haibing Sun, Sid
Boukabara, Fuzhong Weng(NOAA/NESDIS)
Other resources and/or advisors Walter Wolf, Paul
Van Delst, Chris Barnet, Yong Han, Mark Liu,
David Groff, Tom Kleespies, (JCSDA)Erik
Andersson (ECMWF) Roger Saunders (Met Office)
GOESR,NPOESS,ESA Existing instruments
experiments must be simulated for control and
calibration
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Definition of OSSE There are many type of
simulation experiments. Any OSSEs must be
presented with their own limitations. Avoid
presenting results beyond its limitations. We
have to call our OSSE as Full OSSE to avoid
confusion. Through full OSSEs, impact on
forecast can be evaluated Only full OSSE can
provide detail information about configuration of
observing systems. Identical twin
experiments It is worth while to try identical
twin experiments to understand model error.
Identical twin OSSEs can be only used for
illustration only ECMWF offered to perform
identical twin OSSEs if there is specific goal.
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Comments on regional OSSE Nesting other model
and starting from other model fields produce
noise. Regional NR must provide the estimate of
the noise produced from lateral and initial
conditions. 1km resolution data does not have
impact on only 1km scale. That has to give
impact on synoptic scale and planetary scale
event. Many low quality data can produce one
high quality data using QC and super-obbing.
Effective resolution is much larger than
1km. Regional analysis using same global Nature
run with regional analysis and model is worth
while to try out because regional analysis is
done operationally.  Atmospheric model with a
few km resolution require much more development.
Waiting for a few km resolution global model may
be better
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Intergradations of regional OSSE effort to Joint
OSSEs Most of OSSEs in global DAS will be done
les than T170 resolution. There are many
regional experiments to be done between T170 and
T799 resolution. Good hurricanes in T799 run
will serve another five years of OSSEs even for
regional DAS
Joint OSSE will provide criteria of next
generation of the super high resolution Nature
run for regional OSSEs
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The Joint OSSE Nature runs will be available to
research and educational community. List of
users must be provided to ECMWF. Redistribution
right not given Complete data
ECMWF,NCEP,ESRL,NASA Verification data sent
to JMA, NCAR, SWA, and more Make OSSE
available to wide research community by providing
low res verification data and simulation obs.
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END