Climate Change: Deciphering The Skeptics

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Climate ChangeDeciphering The Skeptics
Alan Journet Department of Biology
Environmental Science programSoutheast
Missouri State University ajournet_at_semo.edu http
//cstl-csm.semo.edu/journet/ Whats
New http//cstl.semo.edu/SEMOCPI/
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Minimum Arctic Sea Ice
1979
http//www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/
2003/1023esuice.html
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Minimum Arctic Sea Ice
2003
Greenland
Canada
Data U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite
Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave Imager
(SSMI). Credit NASA
http//www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/
2003/1023esuice.html
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September 2008 NASA's Aqua satellite
Arctic perennial sea ice has been decreasing at a
rate of 9 per decade.
If Greenland ice cap totally melts ? 20 ft sea
level rise
http//www.cbc.ca/technology/story/2008/09/10/ice-
passage.html
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Some Questions

• Have you heard about climate change and its
  possible consequences?
• Do you think there is debate in the relevant
  peer-reviewed scientific literature (atmospheric
  science and meteorology) among scientists
  regarding the existence if climate change and its
  causes?
• or in the media / blogs / web sites / or among
  politicians.

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In solving problems which should carry the most
weight?
Evidence, Facts, Discernible Reality, Reason,
Rational analysis of the world as it exists
Illusions, Distortions, Deceptions, Half Truths,
Claims about the world as it might be or as
wed like it to be.
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Some Erroneous Debates

• Tobacco and Health Effects.
• Tobacco Company campaign to manufacture doubt.
• Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and the atmospheric
  ozone hole.
• The silly season of Presidential politics -
• Is Barrack Obama a Christian or a Muslim?
• Is John McCain a conventional Republican or a
  maverick?
• Dont just accept what you hear especially from
  the media check reliable credible sources for
  yourself.
• Ignore political commentators and web sites /
  blogs with dogmatic pre-determined axes to grind.

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First .

• A few words about what is happening
• The recent global climate pattern and
• Whats causing it

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Global Temperatures 1880 2007Goddard Institute
for Space Studies
IPCC 2007 11 of the last 12 years are among
twelve hottest on record
BUT WHY?
http//data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lr
g.gif /
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The Atmospheric GreenhouseEffect"
NOTE Problem is in loweratmosphere which is
where we live
Infra-red heat
Gases in loweratmosphere absorbthe heat and
retain it does not escape into space as
readily.
Visible light
Earth
Current ave. temp app 15oC or 59oF
Warming
Warming
Without these gases temp -150C to -300C
Cooling
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Positive and Negative Atmospheric
CO2
N2O
CH4
http//www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/a
r4_syr_spm.pdf
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http//www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/a
r4-wg1-spm.pdf
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Other Anthropogenic Gases
METHANE Fossil fuel production Livestock Rice
cultivation Burning biomass wood etc. Waste
management
CH4
NOxFossil fuel combustion Fertilizers Nitrogen
fixing plants
N2O
http//www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/a
r4-wg1-spm.pdf
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The CO2 / Temp Pattern
1940-1970Slight Cooling
Temperature
Carbon dioxide
Aerosols releasedafter WWII
http//www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange1/cu
rrent/lectures/samson/climate_patterns/
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400,000 years of CO2
and last 1000 years
We can nowgo back 650,000years
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming
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Carbon dioxide now and futureAl Gores An
Inconvenient Truth
600
CO2 Possible Future
CO2 Now
If the CO2 ?Temperaturerelationship holds, what
will the temperature be?
Temperature Now
300,000
200,000
100,000
Now
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Carbon Dioxide in the Future
There are severalscenarios.
Without adequate responsethe future could be
bleak.
http//maps.grida.no/go/graphic/past_and_future_CO
2_concentrations
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Future Temperature Range
What does the PrecautionaryPrinciple urge?
There is much doubt depends on what we do.
We know the disease were just not sure about
the exact prognosis
Like a Cancer Diagnosis We know you are sick
But the prognosis dependson what you do.
http//epa.gov/climatechange/science/futuretc.html
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Response to Catastrophe

• Kübler-Ross Five Stages
• Denial
• Aint a river in Egypt.
• We cannot possibly influence climate!
• Anger.
• We gotta find someone else to blame.
• Bargaining.
• Surely somebody can do something about this!
• Despair.
• Aint the extra tire in your trunk.
• Its too big a problem theres nothing we can
  do
• Acceptance
• Its time to figure out what we can do.
• Only when we reach Acceptance can we do anything.

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Who Are the Experts?

• 1) IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
  Change WMU UNEP, 1988
• WG I The Physical Science gt 600 Relevant
  ScientistsPlus gt 450 Reviewers.
• WGII Impacts, Adaptation Vulnerability gt300
  ExpertsPlus gt 750 reviewers
• WG III Mitigation of Climate Change gt 250
  ExpertsPlus gt 400 Reviewers

What Did They Conclude (2007)?

• Global Warming is happening.
• There is a 90 probability that human activity -
  increasing greenhouse gases - is the cause.

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Who Are the Skeptics?

• Mainly non-scientists or scientists with no
  relevant expertise.
• Staff of institutes and think tanks funded to a
  significant extent by oil corporations.
• e.g. between 1998 2008 Exxon/Mobil has run a
  disinformation campaign manufacturing doubt in
  the publics mind while contributing 23 million
  to the skeptic organizations.
• Individuals committed to a political philosophy
  that rejects on principle regulations to address
  environmental problems.
• A small number of contrarian scientists with
  relevant expertise publishing in vanity press,
  non-peer reviewed journals, or journals in
  unrelated fields without editors knowledgeable
  enough to peer-review legitimately.
• Overall a small number of individuals (app. 15)
  are driving the skeptic movement.

http//cstl.semo.edu/SEMOCPI/Information/IPCC-for-
-against.htm
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Sampling The Skeptics

• Cannot possibly address all the weird and
  esoteric criticisms launched by the skeptics of
  climate change theoryfocus on 3.
• There is no scientific consensus.
• There is no climate change i.e. global warming is
  a myth.
• Climate is changing, but its a natural cycle.

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1-There is no scientific consensus.

• Important to appreciate how scientific consensus
  is reached
• It is a legitimate scientific occurrence.
• Through publication in peer-reviewed primary
  scientific journals.
• Through discussions and exchange of information
  and ideas at relevant conferences.
• Through evaluations of research and reports by
  National Academies.

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Is There scientific dispute with IPCC conclusions?

• Oreskes (Science 2004) reported on a sample of
  928 relevant papers in the peer-reviewed
  literature
• not one challenged the consensus view.
• Science Editor Donald Kennedy pointed out
  skeptic manuscripts were simply not being
  submitted.
• The National Academy of Science evaluated the
  2004 IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) and
  confirmed its conclusions.

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Scientific Organizations Endorsing IPCC

• InterAcademy Council
• Joint Science Academies
• European Academy of Sciences and Arts 
• Network of African Science Academies
• U.S. National Academies
• U.S. National Research Council
• International Council for Science
• European Science Foundation
• American Association for the Advancement of
  Science
• Federation of American Scientists
• World Meteorological Organization
• American Meteorological Society
• U.K. Royal Meteorological Society
• Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic
  Society
• Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
• Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society

Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric
Sciences International Union for Quaternary
Research American Quaternary Association Stratigra
phy Commission of the Geological Society of
London International Union of Geodesy and
Geophysics International Union of Geological
Sciences European Geosciences Union Canadian
Federation of Earth Sciences Geological Society
of America American Geophysical Union American
Astronomical Society American Institute of
Physics American Physical Society American
Chemical Society Engineers Australia U.S. Federal
Climate Change Science Program. Union of
Concerned Scientists
There is not one major professional organization
that rejects the IPCC consensus
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Conclusion
Meanwhile according to the Mainstream Media
there is still scientific debate

• In reality, to claim there is no scientific
  consensus that serious scientific debate
  remains is simply absurd.

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2-There is no global warming.
Michael Crichtons U.S. Temperature Graph
1) Michael Crichtons State of Fear was
published in 2004, so the data used could have
been more recent than the last century.
2) But Crichton stopped the 5 year running mean
the darker line in 1995.
3) So, lets extend the lines to include more
current data.
When does the line terminate?
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U.S Average Temperature Trend
Updated
The Crichton Graph
The pattern is revealed
http//data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
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There isnt a global temperature increase its
just a function of the Urban Heat Island effect
A composite of hundreds of satellite images all
taken at night.
If this were the case, at what latitudes would
the temperature anomalies be?
http//gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/10/26/224634
/48
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So, where is it?
http//gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/10/26/224634
/48
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http//data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.B.lrg
.gif
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Warming is not EqualAl Gores An Inconvenient
Truth
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The temperature is actually declining
Christopher (Lord) Monckton of Brenchley
Data from the Hadley Center University of
Alabama (Huntsville) show a cooling planet.
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http//data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.C.lrg
.gif
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Global Temperatures 1880 2007Goddard Institute
for Space Studies
http//data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lr
g.gif /
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American Physical Society

• The following article has not undergone any
  scientific peer review, since that is not normal
  procedure for American Physical Society
  newsletters. The American Physical Society
  reaffirms the following position on climate
  change, adopted by its governing body, the APS
  Council, on November 18, 2007 "Emissions of
  greenhouse gases from human activities are
  changing the atmosphere in ways that affect the
  Earth's climate."

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Is the Hadley Center suggesting cooling?
http//hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/c
omparison.html
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And what does the University of Alabama
(Huntsville) conclude?
June 2008 Newswise Global trend since Nov. 16,
1978 0.13 C per decade A La Niña Pacific
Ocean cooling event continues to drive tropical
and global temperatures Globally, June 2008 was
the coolest June since 1999.
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Conclusion
Even if we cannot prove the planet is warming
the data are quite compelling
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3- Climate is changing, but its a natural cycle.
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18,000 - 20,000
Over the last2 millions years4 glaciations have
occurred
170,000 120,000
480,000 230,000
800,000 600,000
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Geologic Patterns in CO2 temperature.
http//www.clearlight.com/mhieb/WVFossils/Carboni
ferous_climate.html
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Continents Through Time
http//pubs.usgs.gov/gip/dynamic/historical.html
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Milankovitch Cycle

• A 100,000 year temperature cycle results from 3
  component cycles
• I 105,000 yr. cycle in shape of Earths orbit
  of sun- Eccentricity

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Milankovitch Cycle

• A 100,000 year temperature cycle results from 3
  component cycles
• II 41,000 yr. cycle in the tilt (obliquity of
  ecliptic) of Earth 21.1o-24.5o around 23.5o.

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Milankovitch Cycle

• A 100,000 year temperature cycle results from 3
  component cycles
• III 21,000 cyclic advance of the equinoxes
  date when sun is over equator. Jan ? Feb ?
  March..? ? January.

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Milankovitch Cycle

• Consequence
• No change in total solar radiation but
• A cycle in severity of seasons
• From warm summers/cold winters to cool
  summers/mild winters
• Glaciation occurs when summer is not warm enough
  to melt winter snows.

http//www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange1/cu
rrent/lectures/samson/climate_patterns/
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Coincidence in the three cycles

• When all the Milankovitch cycles (alone) are
  taken into account, the present trend should be
  towards a cooler climate in the Northern
  Hemisphere, with extending glaciation.

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Isnt it all Solar Activity?
Black- Temperature
Red Solar Activity
The Friis-Christensen and Lassen (1991) data
are used suggest so (The image shown in a 2007
film, The GGWS.) http//i157.photobucket.com/albu
ms/t63/izzy_bizzy_photo/capture3.jpg But why
stop in 1980?
Science,1991 254, 698-700
Source shows divergence.
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And if we continue the comparison the
argumentfalters more severely with corrected
data.and from the mid 1900s
Damon Laut 2004 Eos 85370,374
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But wasnt there a consensus of global cooling 30
- 40 years ago?
Study by Peterson (NOAA Climate Data Center,
Connelly National Environmental Research Center,
U.K. and Fleck .
http//ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/131047.pdf
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Not only were there few papers, but also few
citations to them
The count on these papers was extended through
1983 Cooling 325 (12), Neutral 424 (15½) ,
Warming 1958 (72).
Additionally no consensus in the media
http//ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/131047.pdf
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Conclusion
We know there are natural fluctuations but the
current pattern of warming seems to deny that
any of the natural causes are significantly in
play.
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Summary
Global warming is always ahead of us. In addition
to the one degree weve already warmed, by our
actions to date another degree has already been
built into the climate.
The Skeptics are cherry-picking selected (usually
old and outdated) data, deceiving and distorting,
and some are not beyond lying.
Remind you of anything?
In an analogous fashion to those who still think
Iraq was involved in 9-11, had Weapons of Mass
Destruction, and posed a nuclear threat to the
United Satesdespite conclusive evidence to the
contrary, there are still Americans who cling to
the illusion that climate change is not
happening, and reject the profoundly convincing
evidence that humans are responsible.
This should NOT be a political question. In
developed nations around the globe, political
parties from right to left have acknowledged the
scientific consensus and have committed to
action. Unfortunately, there are some folks in
the U.S. who identify as a litmus test for being
a genuine Republican, rejection of the evidence
regarding climate change. Denial does not move
us forward especially when represented in the
government.
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It is time for action

• James Hansen heads the NASA Goddard Institute for
  Space Studies in New York and serves as adjunct
  professor in the Department of Earth and
  Environmental Sciences at Columbia University
• Its five past midnight and Time for the Big
  Fix.
• We must take positive steps to address the
  problem four more years of the same cavalier
  inaction we have seen for the last 8 is not good
  enough.

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Evidence, Facts, Discernible Reality, Reason,
Rational analysis of the world as it exists
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Southeast Missouri Climate Protection Initiative
SEMOCPI http//cstl.semo.edu/SEMOCPI Think
Globally Act Locally!
Illusions, Distortions, Deceptions, Half Truths,
Claims about the world as it might be or as we
would like it to be.