Analyzing Student Achievement Trends tied to NCLB

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Analyzing Student Achievement Trends tied to NCLB

• Rolf Blank, Ph.D.
• Director of Education Indicators
• Council of Chief State School Officers
• Connecticut State Conference
• Univ. of Connecticut, March 19, 2008

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CCSSO Projects / Sources/Web Sites

• CCSSO Accountability Systems and Reporting State
  Collaborative project (28 states, incl.
  Connecticut),
• e.g. Implementers Guide to Growth Models, 2008
• State Education Indicators project (annual state
  profiles)10 years
• www.ccsso.org/projects /Accountability _Systems
• www.schooldatadirect .org
• www.SECsurvey.org
• Developing Student Achievement Tests under NCLB
  Accountability Requirements A policymakers
  primer
• PPT Assisted by Adam Petermann, CCSSO

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Questions for State Analysis

• What are the measures at state, district,
  school level for determining performance NCLB?
  Then, Are we improving?
• For state educators To what extent are measures
  valid, reliable?and reports are useful?
• What other measures could we analyze? (e.g.
• A) external, cross-state measure
• B) in-depth within state system alignment
• How does performance in our system compare with
  other states?

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Premises of NCLB

• Accountability tied to state standards,
  assessments, and systems at school level,
  district, state
• All schools and students are accountable
• Improve student performance to proficient level
  by 2014
• Improve performance of all student groups, esp.
  low-income, special education, limited English
• Accountability system identifies schools needing
  improvement, and sanctions/reforms
• Accountability will provide incentives toward
  improved system performance

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Connecticut State Facts
Demographics Connecticut Nation
Population 3,504,809 299,398,484
White 84.6 80.1
Black 10.2 12.8
Hispanic 11.2 14.8
Asian/Pacific Islander 3.4 4.4
American Indian/Alaska Native 0.4 1.0
Connecticut Overview Connecticut Overview
Capital Hartford
Largest City Bridgeport
Governor Jodi Rell (R)
Senators Joe Lieberman (ID), Christopher Dodd (D)
Population Ranked 29th in the US
Area Ranked 48th in the US
Median Income 55,970 (4th in the US)
Household Income Distribution () Connecticut Nation
Less than 15,000 10.5  13.8 
15,000-29,999 12.9  16.7 
30,000-49,999 17.4  21.0 
50,000-74,999 18.9  19.6 
75,000-99,999 13.9  11.7 
100,000-149,999 15.0  10.7 
150,000 or More 11.4  6.5
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Connecticut Education Facts
Teacher Profile Teacher Profile
Teachers Total 39,687 
HQT Elementary Low Poverty 99.1
HQT Elementary High Poverty 96.9
HQT Secondary Low Poverty 98.8
HQT Secondary High Poverty 95.2
Students Per Teacher 14.5
Students Per Total Staff 6.8
Students Connecticut Nation
Total Students 575,059 49,676,964
Low Income Students 26.5 40.9
Limited English Proficiency 5.2 8.5
Students with Disabilities 11.6 13.6
White 67.0 55.9
Black 13.7 16.9
Hispanic 15.4 20.5
Asian/Pacific Islander 3.6 4.5
American Indian/Alaska Native 0.4 1.2
Graduation Rates 2004
State-reported Rate 89.8
Cumulative Promotion Index (Urban Inst.) 79.8
Averaged Freshman Graduation Rate (NCES) 80.7
Number of schools, by percent of students
eligible to participate in the Free and
Reduced-Price Lunch Program
Schools Connecticut Nation
Total Schools 1,111 98,905
Schools Making AYP 672 (68.2) 64,546 (70)
Schools in Need of Improvement 155 10,676
Schools in Restructuring 60 2,302
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Massachusetts State Facts
Massachusetts Overview Massachusetts Overview
Capital Boston
Largest City Boston
Governor Deval Patrick (D)
Senators Ted Kennedy (D), John Kerry (D)
Population Ranked 13th in the US
Area Ranked 44th in the US
Median Income 52,354 (9th in the US)
Demographics Massachusetts Nation
Population 6,437,193 299,398,484
White () 86.5 80.1
Black () 6.9 12.8
Hispanic () 7.9 14.8
Asian/Pacific Islander () 4.9 4.4
American Indian/Alaska Native () 0.3 1.0
Household Income Distribution () Massachusetts Nation
Less than 15,000 12.7 13.8 
15,000-29,999 13.5 16.7 
30,000-49,999 17.5 21.0 
50,000-74,999 19.1 19.6 
75,000-99,999 13.5 11.7 
100,000-149,999 14.3 10.7 
150,000 or More 9.5  6.5
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Massachusetts Education Facts
Teacher Profile Teacher Profile
Teachers Total 73,596
HQT Elementary Low Poverty 98.4
HQT Elementary High Poverty 93.8
HQT Secondary Low Poverty 96.2
HQT Secondary High Poverty 84.9
Students Per Teacher 13.2
Students Per Total Staff 7.0
Students Massachusetts Nation
Total Students 971,909 49,676,964
Low Income Students 28.2 40.9
Limited English Proficiency 5.3 8.5
Students with Disabilities 15.4 13.6
White 72.4 55.9
Black 8.3 16.9
Hispanic 12.9 20.5
Asian/Pacific Islander 4.6 4.5
American Indian/Alaska Native 0.3 1.2
Graduation Rates 2004
State-reported Rate 79.9
Cumulative Promotion Index (Urban Inst.) 73.2
Averaged Freshman Graduation Rate (NCES) 79.3
Number of schools, by percent of students
eligible to participate in the Free and
Reduced-Price Lunch Program
Schools Massachusetts Nation
Total Schools 1,879 98,905
Schools Making AYP 919 (51.2) 64,546 (70)
Schools in Need of Improvement 463 10,676
Schools in Restructuring 135 2,302
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Wisconsin State Facts
Wisconsin Overview Wisconsin Overview
Capital Madison
Largest City Milwaukee
Governor Jim Doyle (D)
Senators Herb Kohl (D), Russ Feingold (D)
Population Ranked 20th in the US
Area Ranked 23rd in the US
Median Income 47,220 (15th in the US)
Demographics Wisconsin Nation
Population 5,570,022  299,398,484
White () 90.0 80.1
Black () 6.0 12.8
Hispanic () 4.7 14.8
Asian/Pacific Islander () 2.0 4.4
American Indian/Alaska Native () 0.3 1.0
Household Income Distribution () Wisconsin Nation
Less than 15,000 11.1  13.8 
15,000-29,999 16.6 16.7 
30,000-49,999 22.1  21.0 
50,000-74,999 22.9  19.6 
75,000-99,999 13.0 11.7 
100,000-149,999 9.8 10.7 
150,000 or More 4.5  6.5
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Wisconsin Education Facts
Teacher Profile Teacher Profile
Teachers Total 60,127 
HQT Elementary Low Poverty 99.3
HQT Elementary High Poverty 97.2
HQT Secondary Low Poverty 98.8
HQT Secondary High Poverty 95.2
Students Per Teacher 14.5
Students Per Total Staff 8.3
Students Wisconsin Nation
Total Students 875,174 49,676,964
Low Income Students 29.3 40.9
Limited English Proficiency 3.4 8.5
Students with Disabilities 14.8 13.6
White 77.8  55.9
Black 10.5  16.9
Hispanic 6.7  20.5
Asian/Pacific Islander 3.6  4.5
American Indian/Alaska Native 1.5  1.2
Graduation Rates 2004
State-reported Rate 91.2
Cumulative Promotion Index (Urban Inst.) 77.3
Averaged Freshman Graduation Rate (NCES) n/a
Number of schools, by percent of students
eligible to participate in the Free and
Reduced-Price Lunch Program
Schools Wisconsin Nation
Total Schools 2,254 98,905
Schools Making AYP 2,016 (95.6) 64,546 (70)
Schools in Need of Improvement 32 10,676
Schools in Restructuring 8 2,302
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Connecticut AYP Trend
Connecticut Connecticut Connecticut
Schools Making AYP
2002-2003 789 81
2003-2004 789 81
2004-2005 785 80
2005-2006 672 68
AYP Targets AYP Targets AYP Targets AYP Targets AYP Targets AYP Targets
2003 2004 2005 2006
Grade 4 Reading 55 55 68 68
Mathematics 64 64 74 74
Grade 8 Reading 55 55 68 68
Mathematics 64 64 74 74
High School Reading 62 62 72 72
Mathematics 59 59 69 69
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Massachusetts AYP Trend
Massachusetts Massachusetts Massachusetts
Schools Making AYP
2002-2003 937 50
2003-2004 1150 62
2004-2005 999 57
2005-2006 919 52
AYP Targets AYP Targets AYP Targets AYP Targets AYP Targets AYP Targets
2003 2004 2005 2006
Grade 4 Reading 75 CPI 75 CPI 75 CPI 80.5 CPI
Grade 7 Mathematics 60.8 CPI 60.8 CPI 60.8 CPI 68.7 CPI
Grade 8 Reading 75 CPI 75 CPI 75 CPI 80.5 CPI
Mathematics 60.8 CPI 60.8 CPI 60.8 CPI 68.7 CPI
High School Reading 75 CPI 75 CPI 75 CPI 80.5 CPI
Mathematics 60.8 CPI 60.8 CPI 60.8 CPI 68.7 CPI
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Wisconsin AYP Trend
Wisconsin Wisconsin Wisconsin
Schools Making AYP
2002-2003 1915 95
2003-2004 2098 95
2004-2005 2155 98
2005-2006 2016 96
AYP Targets AYP Targets AYP Targets AYP Targets AYP Targets AYP Targets
2003 2004 2005 2006
Grade 4 Reading 61 61 67.5 67.5
Mathematics 37 37 47.5 47.5
Grade 8 Reading 61 61 67.5 67.5
Mathematics 37 37 47.5 47.5
High School Reading 61 61 67.5 67.5
Mathematics 37 37 47.5 47.5
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Cross State Overview
Connecticut Massachusetts Wisconsin
Per Pupil Expenditure 12,263 11,642 9,755
Low Income Students 26.6 28.2 29.30
Minority Students 33.0 33.0 22.30
Use of Minimum N Sizes Connecticut Massachusetts Wisconsin
All Students 40 40 10
Limited English Proficient Students 40 40/5 40
Students with Disabilities 40 40/5 50
Districts 40 40/5 40
Small Schools - 20 10
Reporting 10 10 6
Confidence Interval Connecticut Massachusetts Wisconsin
Percent Proficient 99 - 99
Safe Harbor 75 - 75
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Connecticut State Assessment Proficiency Trends
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Massachusetts State Assessment Proficiency Trends
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Wisconsin State Assessment Proficiency Trends
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State Reading Assessment Trend by Race,
Connecticut
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State Reading Assessment Trend by Race,
Massachusetts
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State Reading Assessment Trend by Race, Wisconsin
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Cross State Student Achievement Trends State
Assessments
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Cross State Student Achievement Trends NAEP
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Connecticut NAEP Proficiency Trends
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Massachusetts NAEP Proficiency Trends
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Wisconsin NAEP Achievement Trends
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Connecticut Definition of Proficiency Connecticut Definition of Proficiency
English Students who score at this level can comprehend most grade-level or below-grade-level textbooks and other materials. They can generally determine the main idea, have an adequate understanding of the authors purpose and are able to make some judgments about a texts quality and themes.
Mathematics Students who score at this level demonstrate adequately developed conceptual understanding and computational skills, and adequately developed problem-solving skills.
Massachusetts Definition of Proficiency Massachusetts Definition of Proficiency
English Demonstrates a solid reading vocabulary and general understanding of word parts and word relationships, demonstrates an understanding of many concrete ideas and a beginning awareness of implied ideas in grade-appropriate texts, connects ideas within texts and provides basic supporting evidence, shows solid understanding of structure and elements of genre, identifies a variety of techniques authors use in grade-appropriate texts.
Mathematics Demonstrates solid understanding of the numeration system performs most calculations and estimations, defines concepts and generates examples and counterexamples of concepts, represents data and mathematical relationships in multiple forms, (e.g., equations, graphs), applies learned procedures and mathematical concepts to solve a variety of problems including multi-step problems. Uses a variety of reasoning methods to solve problems, explains steps and procedures, uses various forms of representation (e.g., text, graphs, symbols) to illustrate steps to a solution.
Wisconsin Definition of Proficiency Wisconsin Definition of Proficiency
English Selecting an appropriate topic sentence for a brief paragraph and identifying sentences that develop a topic sentence, identifying and correctly editing errors in grammar, capitalization, or punctuation, distinguishing between complete sentences and fragments and editing a fragment correctly to make a complete sentence using correct subjectverb agreement, using comparative adjectives and adverbs correctly
Mathematics At the beginning of eighth grade, students performing at the level clearly communicate mathematical processes and explain ideas and reasoning using mathematical terminology, numbers, symbols, graphs and diagrams. Students add and subtract mixed numbers and fractions with unlike denominators, multiply mixed numbers in real-world contexts, compare percents and fractions, and use percents in simple real-world problems. Students use proportional reasoning to find the length of sides of similar figures and determine supplementary and complementary angles. They locate and plot coordinates of a transformation in any of the four quadrants of a coordinate plane. Students use appropriate tools of measurement to measure the distance between two points to the nearest 1/8 inch or millimeter, solve problems involving area, perimeter and circumference, and find the volume of rectangular prisms. Students interpret and compare data contained in double bar graphs and determine the probability of one or two dependent or independent events. Students extend functional relationships, solve algebraic equations with like terms without a calculator, and evaluate algebraic expressions with exponents.
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NAEP Definition of Proficiency
4th Grade Reading
8th Grade Math
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NAEP Closing the Gap by Minority, Reading and
Mathematics
Closing the Gap in Reading, Grade 4, 1998 and 2005 NAEP, by Minority students Closing the Gap in Reading, Grade 4, 1998 and 2005 NAEP, by Minority students Closing the Gap in Reading, Grade 4, 1998 and 2005 NAEP, by Minority students Closing the Gap in Reading, Grade 4, 1998 and 2005 NAEP, by Minority students
Largest Minority All Grade 4 Grade 4 at or above
Change '98 to '05 Change '98 to '05 Basic in Reading
State at or above Basic at or above Basic 2005
Massachusetts 12 5 78
National Public 6 2 62
Wisconsin 3 -5 67
Connecticut 2 -8 71
Closing the Gap in Mathematics of Grade 8 Students, 1996 and 2005 NAEP, by Minority Closing the Gap in Mathematics of Grade 8 Students, 1996 and 2005 NAEP, by Minority Closing the Gap in Mathematics of Grade 8 Students, 1996 and 2005 NAEP, by Minority Closing the Gap in Mathematics of Grade 8 Students, 1996 and 2005 NAEP, by Minority
Largest Minority All Grade 4 Grade 8 at or above
Change '96 to '05 Change '98 to '05 Basic in Math
State at or above Basic at or above Basic 2005
Massachusetts 31 12 80
National Public 12 7 68
Wisconsin 11 1 76
Connecticut 6 -0.4 70
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Connecticut NAEP vs. State Assessment
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Massachusetts NAEP vs. State Assessment
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Wisconsin NAEP vs. State Assessment
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SAMPLE AYP OVERVIEW, from schooldatadirect.org
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Hartford School District, Connecticut
Reading Grade 4, State Assessment, Proficient and
Above
Students Hartford
Total Students 21,954
Low Income Students 68.1
Limited English Proficiency 17.6
Students with Disabilities 15.9
White 5.8 
Black 40.9 
Hispanic 52.2 
Asian/Pacific Islander 0.8 
American Indian/Alaska Native 0.3 
Per pupil Expenditure 13,819
Math Grade 8, State Assessment, Proficient and
Above
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Worcester School District, Massachusetts
Reading Grade 4, State Assessment, Proficient and
Above
Students Worcester
Total Students 23,603
Low Income Students 63.1
Limited English Proficiency 16.6
Students with Disabilities 19.3
White 42.6 
Black 12.8 
Hispanic 34.3 
Asian/Pacific Islander 7.8 
American Indian/Alaska Native 0.5 
Per Pupil Expenditure 10,778
Math Grade 8, State Assessment, Proficient and
Above
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Kenosha School District, Wisconsin
Reading Grade 4, State Assessment, Proficient and
Above
Students Kenosha
Total Students 22,131
Low Income Students 37.6
Limited English Proficiency 5.4
Students with Disabilities 13.9
White 66.1 
Black 15.1 
Hispanic 16.7 
Asian/Pacific Islander 1.7 
American Indian/Alaska Native 0.4 
Per Pupil Expenditure 9,496
Math Grade 8, State Assessment, Proficient and
Above
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