Title: Metropolitan Planning Thoughts On New Directions
1Metropolitan Planning Thoughts On New Directions
- AMPO SPRING 2006
- Alan E. Pisarski
2FIRST LETS SET SOME GOALS!WE NEED A LOFTY
GOAL TO STIR MENS WOMENS SOULS?
3 HOW ABOUT PRESIDING OVER A GRACEFUL DECLINE!
Our Present National Transportation Goal
MAKING THINGS GET WORSE ---- SLOWER! Apply
that to Education Health?
4MY GOAL FOR TRANSPORTATION
- To reduce the effects of distance as an
inhibiting force in our societys ability to
realize its economic and social aspirations
5A thought on goals!
- If your transportation goals can be met by
everyone staying home you have the wrong goals!
6WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO CARE GREATLY ABOUT
TRANSPORTATION!
- Transportation is all about reducing the time and
cost penalties of distance on our economic and
social interactions. - To the extent that we succeed we enable
tremendous forces of economic opportunity, social
cohesion and unity.
7The great strengths of America
- A common marketplace of 300 million over 3
million square miles (3.7 with Alaska/Hawaii) - A common labor market of 140 million jobs over
the same area - A common language and culture
- 2/3 of our households are home-owners
- Access to All World Markets
- A transportation system that ties it all together
8IT IS NOT OK FOR TRANSPORTATION TO FAIL
- We are a nation built on mobility
- Trips always have economic or social transactions
at their end of value to the trip maker - American society must have the mobility it needs
to meet its social and economic goals.
9TRANSPORTATION ROLES
- Part of the National flow I-95 is main street
- Part of the State flow ports, commerce and
social activities - Regional flows our economic engine
- Community activities
- THIS IS NOT OPTIONAL
102000 commuting patterns show the importance of
regional flows
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12Theres more to transportation than just
commuting!
- COMMUTING (20 of local psgr travel)
- OTHER LOCAL TRAVEL
- TOURISM
- PUBLIC VEHICLES (gov. services)
- SERVICES (Power/phone/cable/sewer/water)
- URBAN GOODS MOVEMENT
- THRU PASSENGER TRAVEL
- THRU FREIGHT TRAVELÂ
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14The New Millennium World
- A STABLE OLD POPULATION
- THE GLOBALIZATION OF EVERTHING
- SKILLED WORKERS AT A PREMIUM
- WORKERS CAN LIVE, WORK ANYWHERE
- WHO, WHERE ARE THE IMMIGRANTS?
- MAINSTREAMING MINORITIES
- THE SCOURGE OF AFFLUENCE
- A CHALLENGED AFFLUENT SOCIETY
15HELP STAMP OUT AFFLUENCE
- We can do it if we work together!
16Annual Trips Per Household by Household Income -
2001
17Household Transportation Spending by Income Level
-2000
18THE WORK MODE SPLIT OF AN AFFLUENT SOCIETY
19OR DO WE PREFER THE POVERTY POP?
20Mode Choice by Income - 2001
21Immigrant mode trend
22In This New World the Great Issue Will Be Skilled
Workers
- Finding skilled workers will be the key concern
of business. - They will go where those people are
- or, go where those people want to be!
- States and Metro areas that can provide this
resource will be big winners! - Minorities, Immigrants and rural populations will
be a crucial part of the work force
23Work Force Issues
- Older workers in labor force
- Even more females in labor force
- Even more variable schedules
- Work hours a lot like part time
- Skills matches more spreading out
- Amenities-based employment
24A FUTURE WORLD WHERE TIME, RELIABILITY AND
RESPONSIVENESS ARE KEY
- KEYS
- Personal Vs Mass
- On-demand Vs Scheduled
- Private Vs Public
- Self-operated Vs Managed
- Time sensitive Vs Cost sensitive
- Security issues
25WHAT DOES THE FUTURE LOOK LIKE?
- MORE AFFLUENCE
- LOWER DENSITY
- AUTO AFFORDABILITY
- AUTO PRONE AGE
- AUTO TRIP PURPOSE
- DISPERSED DESTINATIONS
- HIGHER FREIGHT VALUE
- MORE TIME SENSITIVITY
- DEMOCRATIZATION OF MOBILITY
- More
- Less
- More
- More
- More
- More
- More
- More
- More
26WHAT IS CONGESTION ?
- Congestion is
- People with the economic means to act on their
social and economic interests - getting in the
way of other people with the means to act on
theirs!
27Congestion is our friend!
- Disinterest in congestion bottom of the list of
problems to solve - Congestion as a goal if we can let things get
bad enough behavior will change - The Constituency for Congestion
28The great loss from congestion is not the extra
three minutes it takes to get home
- HOUSEHOLDS
- Its the decline in the number of jobs I could
reach in ½ hr! - Its the decline in the number of affordable
homes accessible to my work! - Its the decline in the assurance of arriving on
time!
- BUSINESSES
- Its the decline in the number of workers within
½ hr of my employment site! - Its the decline in the number of suppliers
customers within ½ hr of my business! - Its the decline in ship- ment reliability!
29The Present Policy Conflict Two Metro Visions
- Neighborhood
- Shorter trips
- Walk/bike
- Land use solutions
- Design
- Whats freight?
- Accessibility
- Public
- Mass
- Change behavior
- Make it happen
- Globally Integrated
- Longer trips
- Broad community
- Choices
- Market forces
- Major role for freight
- Mobility
- Private
- Personalized
- Technological fix
- Let it happen
30The sprawl debate ( a very white suburban
topic)diverts us from the real issues
- Lack of workers/skilled workers
- Mainstreaming minorities access to services
- Safety/security
- Serving an aging population
- Responding to pressures of time
- enhancing economic opportunities
- Global competitiveness
31BLAMING TRANSPORTATION FOR THE PROBLEMS OF
SPRAWL IS LIKE BLAMING HEALTH CARE FOR THE
PROBLEMS OF OLD AGE.Brad Mallory, Sec DOT, Pa.
32WHAT'S WRONG WITH THE AMERICAN PEOPLE?
- Why do they want what they want ?
- Why can't they want what we want them to want ?
- If this keeps up our government will be forced to
elect new people !
33WE MUST CONFRONT THE FALLACIES DIRECTLY
- System is in place
- Congest our way to the solution
- Induced Demand- It just fills up again
- Efficiency
- The air quality goal benefits of free-flow
travel - Natural dispersal in an affluent society
34BEWARE!Efficiency in transportation is a very
dangerous word
- THE EFFICIENCY OF WHO OR WHAT?
- The key to all transportation is the efficiency
of the users not the vehicles - Thats why trucks not trains cars not buses
- School bus efficiency vs students !
- One colossal pizza delivery per night per
neighborhood is efficient! - THE AMERICAN PEOPLE HAVE NO OBLIGATION TO LIVE IN
WAYS THAT MAKE GOVERNANCE MORE EFFICIENT!
35Congress hears
- Shifts in Planning goals and focus
- Safety/Security
- Economic development
- Accountability
- No teeth parts per million for congestion or
any other goal?
36A Question!
- What Part Of Gains In Air Quality In The Past 20
Years Have Come From - Technology?
- Changed Behavior?
37A Question!
- What Part Of Gains In Air Quality In The Next 20
Years Will Come From - Technology?
- Changed Behavior?
- What Part Of Gains In Air Quality In The Past 20
Years Have Come From - Technology - 95-98
- Changed Behavior
38The beginnings of a reaction
- freight needs a dose of reality
- Irate reactions to congestion
- 9/11 as a wakeup call
- It is no longer acceptable that things are bad
and our plans accept they will get worse
39THE LEAVENING POWER OF FREIGHT MOVEMENT
- Forces serious consideration of costs
- Costs are direct and immediate
- Strongly and directly impacts jobs
- Think of Trucks with glass sides
- How many ton-miles in my breakfast?
- Transportation policy and planning is not a
parlor game
40Community Reactions
- Legislatures and business communities demand
response to congestion - Washington
- Georgia
- Texas
- Others
- Texas federal program a program for the
average state we are not average. - What will it take to assure our competitiveness
in the future - What will it take to assure access to low-cost
housing
41A New Plan for Planning for States And MPOs
- MEET SAFETY NEEDS
- SUPPORT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
- ASSURE SECURITY -- REDUNDANCY
- MAINTAIN MOBILITY/RELIABILITY
- SERVE AGING POPULATIONS
- SERVE LOW-INCOME POPULATIONS
- CLRP Plus
- WHERE DOES AIR QUALITY FIT IN THIS?
42MPO Skills Needed
- Economists Labor/Freight/Competition
- Freight/Logistics Specialists
- Safety/Security Specialists
- Housing Specialists
- Operations Specialists
- Information Systems Technologies
43The right next steps
- Accept public consumer sovereignty
- A real dedication to solving congestion
- Adopt measurable performance results
- Win public respect and support
- OR, THE GOVT COULD ELECT NEW PEOPLE!
44THANK YOU!
- Alan E. Pisarski
- PISARSKI_at_ALANPISARSKI.C0M
45For the first time in history
- A nations population is approaching a state
where it can live and work wherever it wants! - Affluence and low cost transportation and
communications have made that possible. - Some recoil at that idea. We need a serious
search for understanding rather than bumper
sticker policy.
46the 1976 TRB Critical Issues List stated the
US transportation system is now essentially in
place. said it again in 78, and again in
81.In a totally-unrelated eventthe 84 Issues
list dropped this statement and added a new issue
called CONGESTION!
47Is Our Transportation System In Place?
- A nation that by the end of the decade can
expect - Another 30 million people
- And probably as many vehicles
- And another 3 trillion in GDP
- Cannot say that its transportation work is done!
48WE ADD A CANADA EACH DECADE!!!!
- DO WE ADD CANADAS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM?
49OR ?
- If we cant make things go faster then at least
we can make them more reliable! - Reliably slow is the goal?
- Why not apply that to education, public health,
and water supply!
50MY THREE MEASURES OF PERFORMANCE
- Are things getting better or worse?
- What do I mean by better or worse?
- Did I have anything to do with their getting
better or worse?
51BEWARE!Efficiency in transportation is a very
dangerous word
- THE EFFICIENCY OF WHO OR WHAT?
- The key to all transportation is the efficiency
of the users not the vehicles - Thats why trucks not trains cars not buses
- School bus efficiency vs students !
- One colossal pizza delivery per night per
neighborhood is efficient! - THE AMERICAN PEOPLE HAVE NO OBLIGATION TO LIVE IN
WAYS THAT MAKE GOVERNANCE MORE EFFICIENT!
52 The development of electric railways has
resulted in such a wide distribution of urban
and suburban population that the retail merchant
finds the delivery of goods more and more
difficult each year. Ad for the Oldsmobile
Commercial Car circa 1904
53The Personal Vehicle And Our Future
- Trip length?
- Purpose?
- Freight more/less valuable ?
- Freight more/less time sensitive?
- Destinations more/less dispersed?
- A More/Less Affluent Pop?
- A Higher/Lower Density Pop?
- Auto use more/less affordable?
- Age distribution more/less oriented to the auto?