FRBSF University Symposium

1
FRBSF University Symposium

• Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
• Michael Choi
• Christina Collada
• Karl Garbacik
• Lance Lloyd
• Robert Sinclair
• Andrew Speer

2
12th District Unemployment Rates ()

• Arizona 4.7
• Hawaii 3.0
• California 4.8
• Alaska 7.0
• Oregon 5.6
• Washington 5.3
• Idaho 3.6
• Nevada 4.5
• Utah 3.4

3
Pass-through effects of higher energy prices have
caused upward pressure on core inflation, but
falling energy prices are likely to lessen and
exert downward leverage on core inflation
4
The Cooling Housing MarketOverall housing
sales are declining but California was hit
hardest by the slowdown
5
Oil prices have steadily fallen from the mid 2006
peak
6
Growth The initial estimate of real GDP
growth during the third quarter was 1.6 which
is about half the average pace during the last
two years. The economy seems likely to grow at
a 2.5 to 2.75 pace in each of the next two
quarters. This forecast balances the effects
of a cooling housing market with solid growth
performance in the remaining 95 of the economy
outside residential construction
FRBSF University Symposium
7
Policy Recommendation 1. Economic
growth slowed, but expansion will continue
at a moderate pace.2. The housing market cooled
off, especially in California easing
inflation pressures. 3. Oil prices also
declined adding relief to inflation
pressures.The Federal Reserve Bank of San
Francisco recommends to keep the federal funds
rate steady at 5.25