Climate Variability and Irrigation Water Use

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Climate Variability and Irrigation Water Use
Joel O. PazExtension Agrometeorologist Biologica
l and Agricultural Engineering DepartmentThe
University of GeorgiaGriffin, GASWGA Water
Summit XIVJune 17, 2008Albany, GA
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2-3 months Inter-annual Decadal
Climate Variability
Several decades 50 years Centuries
Climate Change
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Changing Ocean Temperature
Impacts our climate here in the U.S. and across
the globe
Image courtesy of NOAA Earth Science Laboratory
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El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• El Niño is one phase of an oscillation in ocean
  temperatures and atmospheric pressure in the
  eastern Pacific Ocean that can steer weather
  systems in the southeastern US and elsewhere.
• El Niño is considered the warm phase of the
  oscillation.
• La Niña (sometimes known as El Viejo) is the
  opposite atmospheric pattern from El Niño.

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El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• El Niño is one phase of an oscillation in ocean
  temperatures and atmospheric pressure in the
  eastern Pacific Ocean that can steer weather
  systems in the southeastern US and elsewhere.
• El Niño is considered the warm phase of the
  oscillation.
• La Niña (sometimes known as El Viejo) is the
  opposite atmospheric pattern from El Niño.

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SST and Drought

• Modeling work has now attributed the major North
  American droughts of the last century-and-a-half
  to global circulation anomalies forced by
  tropical SSTs with the tropical oceans playing an
  important, and probably dominant role.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
(BAMS), October 2007
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SST since 1950
El Niño
neutral
La Niña
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ENSO Impacts in the Southeast

• La Niña
• Dry Fall, Winter, and Spring
• Greatly increases Atlantic
• hurricanes
• Increases tornadoes in
• the deep south
• Greatly increases wildfire
• risks

• EL Niño
• Very wet winter and spring
• Greatly reduces Atlantic
• hurricanes
• Decreases tornadoes in
• the tornado alley

Neutral ENSO phase increases the risk of severe
freezes by 31 odds.
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Southeast Climate Consortium
Members
Funding Support
National Oceanic-Atmospheric Administration
USDA Cooperative State Research, Extension and
Education Service
USDA Risk Management Agency
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Southeast Climate Consortium

• MissionTo use advances in climate sciences,
  including improved capabilities to forecast
  seasonal climate, to provide scientifically sound
  information and decision support tools for
  agriculture, forestry, and water resources
  management in the Southeastern USA.

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Management Decisions

• Variety selection
• Planting dates
• Acreage allocation
• Amount and type of crop insurance
• Marketing
• Purchase inputs

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Analysis of HistoricalWeather Data
Year
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Analysis of HistoricalWeather Data
Year
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Neutral
El Niño
La Niña
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Location Shift
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Regional Crop Yield Map
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Climate Informationand Crop Simulation
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Application Crop Simulation
Crop SimulationModels
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Average cumulative irrigation (mm) during the
peanut growing season under different ENSO phases
Pooled data Planting dates (9)Soil types (3 per
county)
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CDF Irrigation Amount
Worth County
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CDF Irrigation Amount
Worth County
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CDF Irrigation Amount
Worth County
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CDF Irrigation Amount
Calhoun County
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Irrigation Amount
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Simulated Peanut YieldNon-Irrigated
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Simulated Peanut YieldNon-Irrigated
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Simulated Peanut YieldNon-Irrigated
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AgClimate Website
http//www.agclimate.org
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AgClimate Tools
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Simulated Crop Yield

• Select 1 planting date
• Compare ENSO phases

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Simulated Crop Yield
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County Yield Database
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• For additional climate information visit
  www.agclimate.org
• For current weather
• visit www.georgiaweather.net

Dr. Joel Paz UGA BAE Dept 770-228-7399jpaz_at_uga.
edu
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Deviation from Normal Jan 1 June 15
Source Georgia Weather Network
(www.georgiaweather.net)