Eve Gruntfest ecguccs'edu

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Advanced WAS IS Workshop Beyond Storm -Based
Warnings A collaboration between stakeholders,
the National Weather Service the Hazardous
Weather Testbed W R A P U P

• Eve Gruntfest ecg_at_uccs.edu
• Norman, OK September 17,2008

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Motivation

• Hazardous Weather Testbed developing next
  generation forecasting tools better ways to
  communicate what we know in more sophisticated
  ways
• WAS way developing with little interaction with
  folks outside the lab
• IS way bring in forecasters, emergency
  managers, private sector to assure more socially
  relevant new tools

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Participants
Cross section of users - WAS ISers non WAS
ISers

• Forecasters representing a variety of
  geographic regions
• Emergency managers local federal agencies
  represented
• Private sector representatives moving in tandem
  with government
• partners
• Researchers geographers, anthropologist with
  relevant expertise
• Many National Weather Center folks from labs,
  grad students
• Others who want to see how this experiment
  develops - National
• Science Foundation, CASA (Collaborative
  Adaptive Sensing of the
• Atmosphere), NOAA research folks
• Interesting that so many National Weather Center
  folks found new info learning about, visiting in
  the Hazardous Weather Testbed

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GREAT payoff for small NOAA investment many
participants came on their own funds, and we
stretched our small budget creatively

• W O W -- what a braintrust
• YOU are all so busy worked so hard for 2.5 days
• Very thoughtful c r I s p y presentations
• Considerate of the variety of backgrounds
• Hazardous Weather Testbed folks were very brave
  to engage in this experiment

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Getting into each others heads TWO way street
(many intersections)

• When do you begin to warn?
• What about impacts incorporated into warnings
  life for weeks without power
• We agree we need new verification measures
  Karen reminds us how culture bound we are by
  thinking we HAVE to have them
• What about probabilistic verification?
• What about longer/shorter lead times?
• Weather is only one factor people take into
  account when they make decisions

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Emergency managers clued us in on the many
elements of their jobs

• Rebecca Jennings at the federal level
• Christina Muller at the county level
• (cant be tokens need to be part of all phases
  of projects)
• Imagining the world without the constraints of
  the term jail of probability of detection,
  watches, warning, false alarm?

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Forecasting the weather is a difficult job

• Is the challenge of getting effective messages
  any more/less difficult?
• What resources are necessary
• What are the first steps?
• Not taking advantage of existing research
  findings
• Challenge of everyday weather vs. severe weather

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Workshop objectives

• 1. Introduce new technologies directions to a
  diverse spectrum of potential future
  collaborators.
• 2. Define address the broad spectrum of
  end-user needs from the super-user to diverse
  segments of the general public - focus on
  emergency managers, hospitals individuals with
  higher vulnerability as well as private industry
• 3. Clarify suggest new ways to communicate
  uncertainty storm information - focus on
  graphic representations of storm timelines
  uncertainty and communication through new
  emerging technologies

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Workshop objectives

• 4.Define new measures of success to assess
  service. Change concepts of storm verification
  including close calls false alarms
• 5.Provide suggestions for the evolution of the
  Experimental Warning Program design for spring
  experiments with stakeholders goals
• 6.Develop ideas for new ways to change the
  culture within all levels of the National Weather
  Service to facilitate operational implementation
• 7.Create visibility consider possible future
  funding opportunities for Hazardous Weather
  Testbed activities stakeholder interactions
  that help with move The National Weather Service
  from WAS to IS

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Ground rules

• Advanced WAS IS is not like any other workshop
• We did pretty well on the acronyms
• GREAT Meeting mingling to foster new
  collaborations projects
• Minimized glazed eyeballs
• We heard from almost everyone

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Next steps building on our bold experiment

• ?

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Possible next steps --Possibilities for WAS IS
activities

• WAS ISers develop a course to build capacity in
  social science
• Hold the course for social scientists
• WAS IS workshop for TEXAS, Southern region
  National Weather Service?
• Other central regional NOAA activities?

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R E S O U R C E S

• Why not a Cooperative NOAA Institute on society
  weather (Dave Schultz named it Center for Society
  and Weather C-SAW)?
• Or
• INSISTING that there are social scientists
  (plural) working at the existing Cooperative
  Institutes

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WAS IS means changing from WAS to IS
WAS physical scientist goes to WAS IS workshop
Moving from WAS to ISis not an instant
connection with human behavior modellers or
eyeball monitors. BEWARE the simple techno fix!
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Taking the HAZARDOUS Weather TESTBEDBUS on TOUR
Hazardous Weather Testbed Bus

• Lots of creative
• suggestions

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The move from WAS to IS occurs when stovepipes
are not the model - Bring social science into
programs research efforts in sustainable ways
Local Communities
National Weather Service
Private forecasters
Hazardous Weather Testbed
Universities
Broadcast meteorologists
Research Centers
Meteorologists, Hydrologists
Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather
Research and Practice
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Thanks to Kristin Kuhlman and Kelly Lynn for
handling the hundreds of details that let us
enjoy a seamless workshop
Weaving Social Science into Climate and Weather
Research and Practice
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SSWIM TeamUniversity of Oklahoma
LOOKING FORWARD TO MORE OPPORTUNITIES TO WORK
TOGETHER WITH WAS ISERS!
_at_ The National Weather Center