Alan Robock

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Policy Responses to Global Warming
Alan Robock Department of Environmental
Sciences Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New
Jersey USA
robock_at_envsci.rutgers.edu
http//envsci.rutgers.edu/robock
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But, what is a greenhouse gas anyway?

• Nitrogen (N2), oxygen (O2), and argon (Ar) make
  up for 99 of the atmosphere, but are not
  greenhouse gases.
• Water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane
  (CH4), ozone (O3), and nitrous oxide (N2O) are
  greenhouse gases.
• A greenhouse gas absorbs infrared radiation,
  whichcreates molecular vibrationand bending.
• Collisions transfer energy to heat the
  surrounding gas.

Water vapor (H2O) vibration modes http//www.lsbu
.ac.uk/water/vibrat.html
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Global Warming Fundamental Questions
1. How will climate change in the future? 2. How
will climate change affect us? 3. What should we
do about it?
Considerable warming, glacier retreat, more
precipitation and extremes, extinctions, stronger
hurricanes, and sea level rise Some winners but
more losers, including water, tropical
agriculture, national security Mitigation now
(reduce emissions, efficiency) is cheaper than
waiting, study impacts, adapt
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Global Warming Fundamental Questions
1. How will climate change in the future? 2.
How will climate change affect us? 3. What
should we do about it?
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Working Group I (WG I) IPCC WG II IPCC WG III
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Climate Change Fundamental Questions
3. What should we do about it?
This is a political decision to be made by
society and individuals, and is based on
values. Cannot be answered directly by science,
but mitigation and adaptation need to be informed
by scientific results, for example - the
response to different mitigation choices -
scenarios for implementation of mitigation and
adaptation, such as wind climate for wind
generators, or future climate for agriculture -
assess carbon offset schemes
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The United NationsFramework Convention On
Climate Change 1992 Signed by 194 countries and
ratified by 188(as of February 26, 2004) Signed
and ratified in 1992 by the United States The
ultimate objective of this Convention ... is to
achieve ... stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that
would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system.
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Kyoto Protocol Adopted at the third session of
the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC in
Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997. It has been
signed, but not ratified, by the US. Agrees to
limit US greenhouse gas emissions to 93 of the
level of 1990 by 2008-2012. To come into force,
the Kyoto Protocol had to be ratified by at least
55 countries, including Annex I countries
accounting for at least 55 of this
industrialized groups emissions in 1990. The
Kyoto Protocol entered into force on February 16,
2005, after Russia ratified it. As of 16
September 2005, 156 states and regional economic
integration organizations have deposited
instruments of ratifications, accessions,
approvals or acceptances. The total percentage
of Annex I Parties emissions is 61.6.
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Science24 March 2006
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From Jim Hansen, 11/21/06
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How do you define Dangerous Change? Exterminati
on of Animal Plant Species 1. Extinction of
Polar and Alpine Species 2. Unsustainable
Migration Rates Ice Sheet Disintegration Global
Sea Level Rise Regional Climate Change 1. More
Strong Hurricanes 2. Droughts/Floods 3. Threats
to Water and Food Supply A Warming gt1C Risks a
Different Planet.
Partly from Jim Hansen, 11/21/06
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To avoid warming gt1C - Maximum CO2 450 ppm -
Slightly larger if non-CO2 forcings (e.g.,
methane, black carbon particles) decrease Gas
and Oil Use Most of 450 ppm Limit - Gas and oil
must be stretched via efficiency - Coal and
unconventional fossil fuels must be phased out or
capture CO2 - Future power plants must be
zero-CO2 - Vehicles eventually must be zero-CO2
Partly from Jim Hansen, 11/21/06
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From IPCC Working Group III Stabilization of
equivalent CO2 at a level of 445-535 ppm will
cost less than 0.12 of GNP annually through the
year 2030.
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The answers are Efficiency hybrid autos,
trucks, and trains, solid state lighting, more
efficient furnaces and appliances Conservation
better insulation, public transportation,
bicycles Renewable Energy solar, wind,
geothermal, biomass (e.g., ethanol, biodiesel,
wood) Carbon Sequestration especially for fixed
coal-burning plants in the U.S., India, and
China. And with biofuels, it will reduce
atmospheric CO2.
WE NEED ALL OF THE ABOVE
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IPCC Working Group III Summary for
Policymakers May 4, 2007
Table from Nature, May 10, 2007, vol 447, p. 121.
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Whitesides, George M. and George W. Crabtree,
2007 Don't forget long-term fundamental research
in energy, Science, 796-798.
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Goldemberg, José, 2007 Ethanol for a sustainable
energy future, Science, 808-810.
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Goldemberg, José, 2007 Ethanol for a sustainable
energy future, Science, 808-810.
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Nuclear power is NOT the answer, for any one of
the following reasons 1. Unsafe operation (poor
NRC oversight, for profit culture, planned and
unplanned releases, fire protection, evacuation
plans) 2. Possibility of catastrophic
accident 3. Possibility of terrorist attack and
radioactive release 4. Not economically
viable 5. Waste disposal problem not solvable in
near future 6. Nuclear weapons proliferation
(fuel processing plant could produce 10-30 U
weapons/yr, waste reprocessing could produce 30
Pu weapons/yr)
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Source American Wind Energy Association,
http//www.awea.org/pubs/factsheets/Subsidy.pdf
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April 19, 2003
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Mileage of Toyota vehicles introduced since 1999
The New York Times, April 19, 2003
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The New York Times, Oct. 8, 2006
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What the US government should do immediately Al
Gore Congressional testimony, March 21, 2007
1. Immediately freeze carbon dioxide emissions
and then begin a program to reduce them by at
least 90 by 2050. 2. Replace the payroll tax for
Social Security and Medicare with a tax on
pollution, particularly carbon dioxide. 3. Use a
portion of the tax on pollution to help
low-income individuals adapt as carbon emissions
are reduced. 4. Work towards de-facto compliance
with the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change, and
create a new, strong international treaty with a
starting date of 2010 instead of 2012. 5. Enact a
moratorium on the construction of any new
coal-fired power plants that are not compatible
with carbon capture and sequestration.
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What the US government should do immediately Al
Gore Congressional testimony, March 21, 2007
6. Create an Electranet, a smart grid in which
power generation is widely distributed.
Homeowners and small businesses could use solar
and wind energy generators and sell that energy
into the grid at a rate that is determined by the
market. 7. Raise Corporate Average Fuel Economy
(CAFE) standards for automobiles, and set energy
standards for other industries. 8. Set a date for
a ban on incandescent light bulbs. 9. Create a
Connie Mae, a carbon-neutral mortgage
association that would help homebuyers pay for
energy reduction measures such as insulation and
energy-efficient windows that can have high
upfront expenses. 10. Have the Securities and
Exchange Commission (SEC) require the disclosure
of carbon emissions in corporate reporting.
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What the you can do immediately
- Support legislation that will help solve the
problem, both in New Jersey and in Congress. -
Vote for legislators and a President who will
help solve the problem. - Install solar cells,
with New Jersey helping to pay the bill. - Use
less energy Less driving (telecommute, bike,
train, bus) Smaller car/hybrid Insulate your
house Cooler house in winter, warmer in
summer Buy local products Compact fluorescent
bulbs Less meat (energy, methane) Recycle Biodiese
l
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What we can do together
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Benefits - saves money for Wall Township -
demonstrates for residents how to save money and
save the planet
Cool cities near us Asbury Park Belmar Brick
Township Lake Como Long Branch Point
Pleasant Toms River
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For Wall to become a Cool City, all that needs to
happen is for Mayor Devlin to sign the U.S.
Mayors Climate Protection Agreement. Under the
Agreement, participating cities commit to take
the following three actions 1. Strive to meet
or beat the Kyoto Protocol targets in their own
communities, through actions ranging from
anti-sprawl land-use policies to urban forest
restoration projects to public information
campaigns 2. Urge their state governments, and
the federal government, to enact policies and
programs to meet or beat the greenhouse gas
emission reduction target suggested for the
United States in the Kyoto Protocol -- 7
reduction from 1990 levels by 2012 and 3. Urge
the U.S. Congress to pass the bipartisan
greenhouse gas reduction legislation, which would
establish a national emission trading
system. http//www.seattle.gov/mayor/climate/
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We will strive to meet or exceed Kyoto Protocol
targets for reducing global warming pollution by
taking actions in our own operations and
communities such as 1. Inventory global warming
emissions in City operations and in the
community, set reduction targets and create an
action plan. 2. Adopt and enforce land-use
policies that reduce sprawl, preserve open space,
and create compact, walkable urban
communities 3. Promote transportation options
such as bicycle trails, commute trip reduction
programs, incentives for car pooling and public
transit 4. Increase the use of clean,
alternative energy by, for example, investing in
green tags, advocating for the development of
renewable energy resources, recovering landfill
methane for energy production, and supporting the
use of waste to energy technology 5. Make energy
efficiency a priority through building code
improvements, retrofitting city facilities with
energy efficient lighting and urging employees to
conserve energy and save money
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6. Purchase only Energy Star equipment and
appliances for City use 7. Practice and promote
sustainable building practices using the U.S.
Green Building Council's LEED program or a
similar system 8. Increase the average fuel
efficiency of municipal fleet vehicles reduce
the number of vehicles launch an employee
education program including anti-idling messages
convert diesel vehicles to bio-diesel 9.
Evaluate opportunities to increase pump
efficiency in water and wastewater systems
recover wastewater treatment methane for energy
production 10. Increase recycling rates in City
operations and in the community 11. Maintain
healthy urban forests promote tree planting to
increase shading and to absorb CO2 and 12. Help
educate the public, schools, other jurisdictions,
professional associations, business and industry
about reducing global warming pollution.
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No regrets policies. Reduced usage of energy
will have many positive benefits to society, even
if projected global warming turns out to have
been exaggerated (which is just as likely as that
the warming turns out to have been
underestimated). We would have cleaner air,
less acid rain, greater visibility in the
atmosphere, cooler central regions of cities,
more trees, and less dependence on foreign oil
supplies.
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The Global Warming Dilemma (Mahlman,
2002) There are no quick policy fixes,
nationally or globally. If we don't begin to
chip away at the problem soon, it is very likely
that serious consequences will be wired in for
the world of our great-grandchildren and for
their great-grandchildren. ... The long time
scales and robustness of the problem almost
guarantees that our descendants in the 22nd
century will, with historical perspective, see
that we were actually confronted with a major
planet-scale stewardship/ management
problem. They will most assuredly note how we
responded, or how we did not respond to the
problem.
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Flawed arguments against global warming
Solar variations have caused the recent warming,
so the effect of greenhouse gases must be
small. The warming was caused by contrails
(short-lived clouds, formed by condensation of
jet exhaust), so we need not worry about
greenhouse gases. The satellite record of lower
tropospheric temperature for the past 20 years
shows less warming, which shows that both the
surface temperature record is wrong and that
climate models are flawed.
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Flawed arguments against global warming
Models produce too much warming when they try to
reproduce the climate change of the past 100
years. Most of the warming of the past century
took place in the first half of the century,
especially from about 1915 to 1945, when the
effect of CO2 was less.
Water vapor is a more important greenhouse gas
than carbon dioxide (CO2). The warming of the
surface air temperatures is urban warming and not
representative of global climate change.
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Flawed arguments against global warming
Carbon dioxide variations in the Ice Age are
inconsistent with current climate model
predictions.
Most IPCC scientists are not experts in global
climate change. Climate model predictions for
global warming are getting smaller as time goes
on (implying that the problem will go away once
we study it some more).
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Flawed arguments against global warming
The human input of CO2 to the atmosphere each
year is only about 4 of the natural biological
flux, so we need not worry about it.
Scientists get the answer on greenhouse warming
that the government wants, to keep their funding
coming in. Weather cannot be predicted beyond a
week or so, so how can we predict climate? The
current warming is a natural rebound from the
Little Ice Age and should not be blamed on human
actions.
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The words of the prophets are written on the
subway walls Sounds of Silence (Simon and
Garfunkel, 1966)
Very Likely
Photograph by Warren Washington