Critical Thinking and EvidenceBased Management

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Critical Thinking and Evidence-Based Management
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Outline

• Critical Thinking Quizzes
• Critical Thinking and This Class
• Day Care Example and Critical Thinking
• Ways of Knowing
• GPA Example and Correlations
• Job Satisfaction and Performance Example
• Breast Feeding Example
• Survival Training Example

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Quick Comic
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Quick Quiz (About Things in General)

• To change the way people act, you must first
  change their attitudes.
• The greater the reward promised for a boring
  activity, the more one will come to enjoy the
  activity.
• Most people rate themselves as below average when
  comparing themselves to others on socially
  desirable characteristics (such as
  attractiveness).
• Most people will disobey a person in authority
  who orders them to hurt a stranger.
• In a debate, it is always to your advantage to be
  the last speaker instead of going first (you want
  the last word).
• People pull harder in a tug-of-war when they are
  part of a team than when they are pulling by
  themselves.
• Groups will generally make more moderate
  decisions than a single individual will.
• Opposites attract.
• Absence makes the heart grow fonder.
• People are LESS likely to help another person
  when they are alone than when there is a group
  around.
• If you pick up a crying baby whenever it cries,
  this will increase the amount the baby will cry,
  so it can get picked up again.
• Children who grow up in a family with gay parents
  are more likely to become gay.

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Quick Quiz (About OB)

• Interviews are an effective selection device.
• Money is best motivator and satisfier.
• People generally dont like jobs that are
  complex.
• Conflict in organizations is highly disruptive.
• People get bored easily, leading them to welcome
  organizational change.
• People satisfied with one job tend to be
  satisfied with other jobs as well.

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Graduate-level Education

• From UCF Graduate Business School website
• Programs are designed todevelop analytical,
  problem-solving, and decision-making
  capabilities
• That means
• Select which information is credible
• Recognize and defend against propaganda
• Reason effectively, comprehensively
• Estimate relative importance of multiple factors
• Be creative and identify alternatives
• Explain predict observed phenomena

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OB Skills and Career Progression
Lower management Middle management Top management
Conceptual skills The ability to think
analytically and achieve integrative problem
solving Human skills The ability to work well in
cooperation with other persons Technical
skills The ability to apply expertise and perform
a special task proficiently
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How Will I Gauge Success?

• Are you thinking critically about issues, ideas,
  concepts?
• Are you summarizing your thoughts clearly,
  effectively?
• Are you taking all major issues into
  consideration? Identifying contingencies?
• Are you engaged? Are you making interesting
  observations? Are you identifying OB issues in
  other current events?

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Day Care Exercise

• Is day care bad for young children?

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Common Flaws in Thinking

• Telling an anecdote (i.e., extraordinary example)
• Referring to instinct or laws of nature or
  what everyone knows
• Failing to notice the assumption of harm in the
  way the question is asked
• Using emotion instead of reason and evidence
• Seeing alternatives in terms of black or white,
  good or bad
• Failing to adequately define the concepts (e.g.,
  daycare, young children)

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Critical Thinking in OB

• Assumes that general patterns of behavior exist
• Seeks to identify, qualify, and explain
  relationships among important aspects of work
  life
• Where possible, takes a scientific approach to
  examining cause and effect
• Draws conclusions based on data
• Maintains a central focus
• Variance exists and we want to explain it.

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Why Systematic Thinking in OB?

• We want to explain variance in
• Job performance
• Organizational commitment
• Job satisfaction
• Citizenship behavior
• Turnover
• Withdrawal

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Thinking Critically

• We observe some phenomenon
• Does variance exist?
• On what theoretical grounds can we explain
  observed difference?
• Are assumptions reasonable?
• Are differences meaningful? (means, correlation)
• Do alternative explanations exist?
• Do the methods of research support conclusion?

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Ways of Knowing
Scientific Method
Rationalism
Personal Experience
Authority
Tenacity
Intuition
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Ways of Knowing (Ctd.)

• Intuition
• Information is accepted on gut feel
• Tenacity
• Information is accepted as true because it has
  always been believed (superstition)
• Authority
• We rely on (and trust) information from an expert
  in the subject area

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Ways of Knowing (Ctd.)

• Personal Experience
• Let me tell you what happened to me.
• Rationalism
• We seek answers by applying logical reasoning to
  a known set of facts
• Scientific Method
• Obtain knowledge through careful observation and
  prudent interpretation of data

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Pro Footballs Cherished MythsBy Allen Barra
Wall Street Journal, 8/26/06

• Famous myths
• Offense sells tickets, but defense wins
  championships.
• Dome teams have the advantage.
• Home teams have the advantage.
• Things to think about
• On what theoretical grounds do we base these
  assumptions?
• Are these assumptions reasonable?
• How would we test these myths? Revise statements?

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Testing Assumptions with Data Correlation
Coefficient

• To what extent are Intelligence and Motivation to
  Learn associated with GPA?

JOB PERFORMANCE GPA
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Correlation Coefficient

• Indicates the strength of the linear relationship
  between two variables
• A standardized measure of association (so we can
  be compare it to other correlation coefficients)
• Ranges from -1 to 1
• Is indicated by lower case r

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Intelligence and Academic PerformanceSAT-GPA
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Motivation and Academic PerformanceMotivation to
attend-GPA
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Discussion Question

• If two variables are correlated does that mean
  that one causes the other?
• Correlation Causation ?

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Quick Comic
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Quick Examples

• Ice cream sales and the number of shark attacks
  on swimmers are correlated.
• Skirt lengths and stock prices are highly
  correlated (as stocks go up, skirt lengths get
  shorter).
• The number of cavities in elementary school
  children and vocabulary size have a strong
  positive correlation.

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Does the Press Make This Mistake?

• http//jonathan.mueller.faculty.noctrl.edu/100/cor
  relation_or_causation.htm

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Job Satisfaction and Performance

• We generally assume that a happy worker is a
  productive one.
• But
• Does empirical research data support that idea?
• Do high levels of job satisfaction lead to high
  levels of job performance?

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Job Satisfaction and Job Performance Correlation
r.17
Performance
Satisfaction
Based on Judge et al. (2001)
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Explanations for Correlation
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Performance ? Satisfaction?
Relationship is Spurious
Strength of Relationship changes based on aspects
of work environment (e.g., job)
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Performance ? Satisfaction?
No relationship between the two concepts
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So What Do You Think?

• What can you tell me about the relationship
  between job satisfaction and job performance?

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Breast-Feeding Linked to IQ Gain

• Infants breast-fed for nine months grew up to be
  significantly more intelligent than infants
  breast-fed for one month or less, according to a
  study published in the Journal of the AMA.
• Supporting the conclusion that breast-feeding
  improved intelligence, researchers found a strong
  "dose effect" -- a gradual improvement based on
  the number of months of breast-feeding up to nine
  months, when the effect ended.
• Results from the study, of more than 3,000 young
  men and women in Denmark, strongly support the
  long suggested, but unproven conclusion that
  breast-feeding makes babies not only healthier,
  but smarter.
• "We are really quite certain that what we are
  seeing here is the effect of the duration of
  breast-feeding on an individual's intelligence.
  The evidence is growing that breast-feeding is
  among the most important lifelong benefits a
  mother can give to her child."

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Nursing ? IQ

• Why is this true (i.e., what are explanations of
  reasons why breast milk leads to high IQ)?
• What are alternative explanations of observed
  phenomenon?

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Potential Explanations

• Nursing facilitates emotional development in
  children emotional development (confidence,
  initiative, persistence) ? IQ.
• Breast milk contains nutrients that not available
  in formula these nutrients facilitate brain
  development.
• Women who breast feed, are more likely to
  maintain and encourage a healthy lifestyle ?
  better performance in school.
• Women who breast feed, are also more likely to
  make personal sacrifices for the childs benefit.

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Nursing ? IQ A Spurious Relationship?
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ABCs Survival Training

• Alternative Explanations?

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Take-Home Points

• OB is not just common sense and critical thinking
  is important when you manage others.
• Using facts (or evidence) to make decisions
  generally is more effective than other
  approaches.
• Critical thinking is something that will be
  emphasized throughout this semester.