Perspectives of water stress in Cyprus

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Perspectives of water stress in Cyprus

• Iacovos Iacovides
• Water Resources Specialist
• European Forum Cyprus
• "Cyprus without water? One island, one problem
  and some related challenges" 
• Barcelona - Nov. 13-16, 2008

Council of Europe
European Union Conseil de l'Europe
Union européenne
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Contents

• Water Resources
• Water Demands
• Significant water management issues
• Desertification
• Drought

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THE AVAILABILITY OF WATER RESOURCES ISLAND-WIDE
(1951-1981)
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THE AVAILABILITY OF WATER RESOURCES AFTER 1970
(G.C. Southern part only (1970-2000))
AREA OF G.C. CYPRUS 6153 km2 AVERAGE ANNUAL
RAINFALL 465 mm TOTAL ANNUAL WATER SUPPLY
2860 Mm3 83 EVAPOTRANSPIRATION 2370 Mm3
River diversions 25 Pumping
124 Use from dams 125
Springs Aquifer recharge 43
Losses to sea 160 Losses to sea
102 Excess pumping - 46
295
238
490
490
Estimated gt10 reduction
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Troodos Mountains Rainfall in 1917 - 1970 vs
1971 - 2000
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF PRECIPITATION RECORDS
(1916-2000) SHOWS A STEP CHANGE AROUND 1970. 100
mm lower than older period (or 15 to 25 )
Data used for the design of dams
Recent observations 1970-2000
-100 mm (15-25 less)
YEAR OF DROP CHANGE
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Average annual rainfall (Southern-part)
NOTICE THE DROP OF RAINFALL AT VARIOUS PERIODS
1901-1970 541 mm
1971-2005 470 mm
1987-2008 453 mm
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Relation between annual rainfall and inflow for
Kouris dam

• Surface runoff reduction has been 20 to 60

FLOW - 34
RAIN-13
8
Inflow of water into dams (1987-2008)

• The decrease of inflow to dams varies between 24
  and 58. The island has roughly
• 40 less water than had been assumed based on
  pre-1970 records

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Water storage in Dams (1988 2008)
Present storage is 8.8 MCM or 3.2 of the 273.6
MCM Capacity
Lowest ever
10
The Morphou coastal aquifer (after M. Ergil
Eastern Mediterranean University)

• meets the needs of the North (275 km2 45-100 m
  thick).

Aquifer annual safe yield in northern Cyprus is
74 MCM. But 29 MCM are over-extracted (UNDP
1970, DSI 2002). Surface water (13MCM) and dams
(7) make the total potential to 94 MCM Thus the
water deficit of North Cyprus is about 12.5
million m3 (106.6 94.1)
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Water transport from Turkey (after G. Elgiran,
M. Ergil, European Univ. Lefke)

• Water transported in large water bags (10000 to
  30000 m3) towed by ship from Anamur Turkey to the
  coast of Morphou in the period of 1998-2002
  amounted to 4.1 MCM.

TCM Thousands m3
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Use of water resources in northern part of Cyprus
(after World Bank)
Some 76 are used for irrigation and 2 for
livestock
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Options for solution of water problem in northern
Cyprus

• Conversion of traditional irrigation methods to
  modern irrigation on 1400 ha of land in Morphou
• Rehabilitation and use of treated wastewater
• Importation of 7 MCM from Turkey
• Transportation cost of water imported from Turkey
  to Morphou by a tanker with a capacity of 40,000
  m3 was found to be 0.79 per m3 (incl.
  infrastructure and port handling) (after H. Bicak
  G. Jenkins, 1999).
• Thus importation is competitive to desalination
• Leakage in the network (est. 30) is the most
  important variable affecting price of water.
• Water resource development needs to focus on
  increasing the supply of potable water at the
  expense of irrigation.

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Kokkinochoria aquifer water levels and sea
intrusion (1994 -2000)
 
gt - 40 m
500 mg/l
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Akrotiri Aquifer sea intrusion 2001
Hydrograph of borehole 775 (Elev. 15.63 m amsl)
1961-2001
500 mg/l
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Water Demand in southern part of Cyprus
Some 69 goes to agriculture (182 MCM). Domestic
accounts for 25 or 67.5 MCM (Only 5 goes to
Tourism).
TOURISM
RESIDENTIAL
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Supply of water from GWWs (1991-2007)
Note the steady increase in domestic demand
Irrigation demand steady but variable according
to supply availability
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Domestic water supply sources (GWWs) (1991-2007)
Desalination became a new source of supply after
1997 and 2001
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Irrigation water supply sources (GWWs) 1991-2007
Reuse of tertiary treated effluent for irrigation
is the new added source supply variable
according to water availability Better
management for reliable but lesser quantities/
year
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Significant Water Management Issues

• Over-exploitation of groundwaters
• Hydromorphological pressures and quantity flow
  of surface waters (degradation of natural
  characteristics)
• Pollution
• Agricultural
• Urban
• Other sources (industry, mining, rainwater
  run-off)
• Conservation of protected areas and significant
  hydrophilous ecosystems
• Other issues
• Administrative issues
• Water pricing (Financial Resource
  Environmental Cost)
• Pressures on coastal water bodies

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Significant Water Management Issues (continued)

• Desalination (costs relying on imported fossil
  fuels (0.92 Euro/m3 for Dhekelia and 0.68 for
  Larnaka) Intensive use of energy impact on
  the environment (indirect greenhouse gas
  emissions (GHG))
• Import of water from Greece or elsewhere (high
  cost about 5 Euro/m3)
• Water Demand Management
• Reduction of agriculture for the benefit of
  domestic supply
• Control of leakages from distribution networks
• Developing water awareness
• Combating desertification
• Water Scarcity and Drought

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Desertification is
Soil losing its productive capacity
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Factors of Desertification

• Natural factors
• climate
• temperature
• precipitation
• soil
• type
• erosion
• vegetation
• species
• Biomass

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Factors of Desertification

• Human factors

Over mining
Population increasing
Overgrazing
Fires Deforestation
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Desertification conditions in Cyprus as per
UNESCO/FAO classification
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Effect of Climate Change to Desertification

• Under climate change desertification INCREASE by
  23.5

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Sensitive areas to DESERTIFICATION Present
conditions
Fragile 42.3
Critical 57
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Sensitive areas to DESERTIFICATION Climate Change
Scenario 15 less rainfall and temperature
increase by 1.3C
Fragile 29.5
Critical 70.4
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Drought is
Lack of precipitation and/or A period of water
shortage
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Drought is
Drought is a normal, repetitive climatologic
feature
There is 20 probability that annual rainfall
could be 390-470 mm (drier years) and/or lt390 mm
(driest years)
Water Supply
Water Demand
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Trends in recorded rainfall and runoff

• Rainfall
• Statistical analysis over 1916/1917-1999/2000
  shows that the precipitation displays a step
  change around 1970.
• For 1916/1917 to 1969/70 no trend can be
  detected.
• For 1970/1971 to 1999/2000 a slight decreasing
  trend but not significant is noted.
• For areas of elevation higher than 500 m, the
  mean annual precipitation in the recent period is
  lower by 100 mm or more than the mean of the
  older period (or 15 -25)
• There is no proof that this decrease is due to
  global climate change, but this possibility is
  not necessarily excluded.
• Runoff
• The lower rainfall has caused a significant
  reduction in the water available on the island as
  compared to the pre-1970 records.
• Decreases in runoff for all the dams after 1970
  with respect to the older time series vary
  between 20 and 60 percent. (13 reduction in ppt
  results to 34 reduction in runoff for Kouris)

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Trends in Demand

• Demand
• Already the demand is much higher than the supply
  and is rising. New sources of water are scarce or
  very expensive. Water demand management through
  proper water pricing and reduction of agriculture
  need to be seriously considered if we are to
  maintain the acquired standard of living and
  combat desertification.
• Conditions are likely to become worse if the
  scenarios for Climate Change materialize.

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Thank You !
???a??st? !
Cok Mersi !
iaco_at_cytanet.com.cy