ACUTE AND LONG-TERM MORTALITY IN MOSCOW

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ACUTE AND LONG-TERM MORTALITY IN MOSCOW

• Elena Strukova, Alexander Golub and research
  team
• Moscow, June 5, 2006

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Deaths Due To Ambient Air Pollution
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Four Categories of Cases of Air Pollution
Attributable Deaths
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Major Design Features of Time-series and Cohort
Studies
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Poisson Model

• E(Yt) is the expected value of daily deaths
  Yt,, Zt is the air pollution variable, Xi are
  other control variables, for i1,.,p and ?0
  and ai are the regression coefficients

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Control variables in time-series models

• 24 hour average pollutants concentration (PM10,
  NOx, SO2, Ozone)
• Air temperature
• Humidity
• Atmospheric pressure
• Day of the week
• If day is a holiday or not
• Whether an influenza epidemic is present
• Time lags for PM10 concentration
• If day can be classified as extremely hot

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Consistent data

• March 2003-October 2005

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PM10 no Lags
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PM10 with Lags
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Acute Daily Mortality Attributable to Air
Pollution

• Mean Attributed DM Mean DM 0.00054 Mean
  PM10 concentration
• 365.6 0.00054 32.3 ug/m3
• 6.4
• 90 CI 1.1-12.7
• DM gt Daily Mortality

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Acute Annual Mortality Attributable to Air
Pollution

• 2336
• 1.7 of total mortality

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Statistical Characteristics
Mean SD
Daily mortality 365.6 30.25
Average PM10 concentration 32.33 16.01
Concentration-response per 1 ug/m3 PM10 0.000539 0.00013
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Concentration-Response for PM Pollution (12
European Cities)
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Probability Distribution for Acute Mortality
Analysis in Europe
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Demographics in the European Cities
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Demographics in Moscow

• 0-14 15
• 15-64 70
• gt64 15

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Long-Term Mortality Attributable to Air Pollution

• Mean Attributed LTM 0.006 Mean PM2.5
  concentration Mean Mortality/
• (1 0.006 Mean PM2.5 concentration) 0.006
  16 ug/m3 365.6 /
• (1 0.006 16 ug/m3)
• 32
• LTM gt Long Term Mortality

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Long-Term Annual Mortality Attributable to Air
Pollution

• 11680
• 8.8 of total mortality

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PM10 with Confounding Factors
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PM10Summer Months
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PM10 Winter (confounding factors included)
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Ozone Summer