1
Økonomiske forutsetninger

• Gullfaks landsbyen 2007

2
Olje og gass forutsetninger
År Olje pris USD/bbl Gass pris NOK/Sm
2007 58 1.43
2008 50 1.19
2009 45 1.05
2010 40 0.89
2011 .. 35 0.78
2014 ? 35 0.74
Exchange rate 6 NOK/USD Diskonterings faktor 8
3
Brønn kostnader

• Subsea/Platform brønn.
• Avhenger av type brønn og lengde.
• TTRD
• Sidesteg
• Ny brønn, MLT
• Ta kontakt med gruppe kontaktene dere i Statoil
  for input avhengig av brønnkonsept dere velger.

4
Usikkerheter

• Olje priser
• High/Low case /- 40
• Low price bruk 20 USD/bbl long term for olje.
• High price bruk 50 USD/bbl long term for olje
• CAPEX/OPEX
• High/low case /- 40

5
Decision criteria

• NPV at base price (EPA)
• NPV at low price
• NPV at high price
• Expected net present value, E(NPV)
• Probabilities to be used for different oil
  prices, with all other parameters kept unchanged
  are 60 for base oil prices, 20 for low oil
  prices and 20 for high oil prices.

6
Real options

• This is a way of capturing value that is not
  recognized in traditional NPV analyses.
• With an uncertain future, there is a value in
  having the flexibility to decide what to do after
  some of that uncertainty has been revealed.
• The flexibility, if any, to wait, abandon or
  expand on an investment opportunity is captured
  in a real option.
• In traditional NPV analyses, the ENPV is
  calculated on the basis of cash flows reflecting
  uncertainties in and relationship between
  different underlying parameters

7

• Risk or uncertainties of a project are captured
  by calculating the effect on the ENPV of both
  positive and negative changes in these parameters
  such as
• Economic/market related assumptions
• Tax-related assumptions
• Technical assumptions
• IOR
• Start-up date
• Environmental assumptions
• Country and reputation risk.
• The project decision is made, based on expected
  outcomes, before the realised value of the
  relevant parameters are revealed.
• Simple methodology of valuing real options is
  using decision trees with probabilities for
  different outcomes.