Updating Rhode Island GHG Emissions Analysis

1
Updating Rhode Island GHG Emissions Analysis

• Charles Heaps, Ph.D.
• Stockholm Environment Institute - US Center
• Tufts University, Somerville, MA 02144
• charlie.heaps_at_sei-us.org
• www.sei-us.org

2
Drivers to Update Modeling

• Baseline forecast has not been revisited since
  initial modeling in 2001/2002
• Energy forecasts have changed significantly since
  then.
• Other population and economic forecasts should
  also be revisited.
• The previous RI GHG scenarios utilized a detailed
  baseline end-use analysis of the states energy
  system.
• This relied on the use of the National Energy
  Modeling System (NEMS) scaled-down to give a
  picture of the state.
• The data modeled fuel use broken down into
  sectors (e.g. households, industry, transport)
  subsectors (e.g. building sizes) and end-uses.
• The baseline analysis was accompanied by detailed
  analysis of policy options modeled as energy and
  emissions savings vs. the baseline.
• The complexity of the approach made it complex
  and expensive to update the baseline forecasts.
• A result is that the baseline has not been
  updated in recent years efforts.
• A new approach is proposed using a simplified
  baseline approach, that can be more readily
  updated and that does not rely upon NEMS.

3
Data Structures

• Old baseline data structure was complex and
  underutilized in our recent analyses.
• This made it costly to update.
• New baseline data structure will be simplified
  and standardized making it much easier to
  update.
• Each sector will simply be divided down into the
  various fuels each with associated emission
  factors.

4
Inputs and Methodology

• Baseline will use historical state energy data
  with information on fuel use by sector.
• Regional projections from U.S. DOE Annual Energy
  Outlook (AEO) used to project historical data
  forward to 2030. Regional data mapped down to
  State level using supporting data such as State
  and regional GSP and population projections.
• Policies modeled as before as various individual
  measures with associated energy and emissions
  savings, costs and benefits.
• Electricity system will continue to model Rhode
  Island as a fraction of New England (based on
  RIs share of NE electricity consumption).
• LEAP will continue to be used as the overall
  organizing tool.
• GHG emissions modeled as before using emission
  factors from LEAP.
• Fuel prices (historical and projections) taken
  from AEO.
• Simplified methodology will also make it easier
  to do sensitivity analysis (e.g. examining
  alternative GSP and fuel price projections).
• Easy to adapt for use in other States or for
  region as a whole.

5
Main Results

• Energy consumption, savings and production
• Greenhouse gas reductions
• Selected local air pollutant emission reductions
  (SO2, VOC, NOx, CO).
• Economic benefits (and costs) from implementing
  new initiatives