Jesson Data

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Jesson Data
I wonder if I can find a way to accurately
estimate how well a student SHOULD do.
He is trying to get a system that is so
reliable that every school in the country uses
it to estimate how well their students should do
at GCSE.
Professor David Jesson from York University. He
has worked since the 1980s on school data and
trying to find ways to predict what a student
should achieve at GCSE based on their scores in
their Key Stage 2 SATs at primary school
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How Jesson estimates GCSE performance

• The Jesson approach looks at a students profile
  of prior attainment based on how they did in
  their Key Stage 2 tests at age 11.

• It links these scores to outcomes at GCSE. Jesson
  found these scores to be the very best predictor
  of a students performance at GCSE.

• But it is not just based on the levels achieved
  from Key Stage 2 tests in English, Mathematics
  and Science.

• Jesson found that it was much better to get the
  actual test score for
  the English, Mathematics and Science test papers.

• He then turned them into point scores
• The fine level multiplied by 6
• If you got Level 4.25 on your English test it was
  worth 4.25 x 625.5 points.

• Then, in order to get the overall picture Jesson
  took the average scores of the three tests and
  turned this into your average Point Score (APS)

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How Jesson predicts GCSE outcomes
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To make the estimates more reliable
Jesson puts KS2 APS into
five bands
96 chance
84 chance
60 chance
30 chance
10 chance
B A N D 2
B A N D 5
B A N D 3
B A N D 4
B A N D 1