Pablo ClementeColn, Chief Scientist, National Ice Center

1
NESDIS Sea Ice Team
NOAA Climate Observation Annual System
Review Silver Spring, MD 5-7 June 2007
Pablo Clemente-Colón, Chief Scientist, National
Ice Center
2
NIC Science and AppliedTechnology Department SI
and Polar Science Teams
NIC Chief Scientist
NESDIS/STAR Sea Ice Science Team (Mostly Internal
Activities)
Polar Science Team (External Collaborations)
LT John Woods
(NAVY) Science Officer
Transition Team Brian Melchior AG3 Norman
Murray Operations Liasons IT Liasons
Science Team Sean Helfrich AG1 John Peña Wanshu
Huang Todd Arbetter
LT Bryan Wagonseller
(NOAA Corps) Transition Officer
NIC Operations Dept.
NIC IT Department
3
NIC Science and AppliedTechnology Department SI
and Polar Science Teams
NIC Chief Scientist
NESDIS/STAR Sea Ice Science Team (Mostly Internal
Activities)
Polar Science Team (External Collaborations)
LT John Woods
(NAVY) Science Officer
Transition Team Brian Melchior AG3 Norman
Murray Operations Liasons IT Liasons
Science Team Sean Helfrich AG1 John Peña Wanshu
Huang Todd Arbetter
LT Bryan Wagonseller
(NOAA Corps) Transition Officer
NIC Operations Dept.
NIC IT Department
4
NIC Science Focus Areas

• Support of International Polar Year remote
  sensing and sea ice characterization activities.
• Promotion of NIC ice products assimilation into
  atmospheric, ocean, and ice forecast analyses and
  models.
• Integration of NOAAs Snow and Ice Operational
  IMS Product at NIC.
• Development of operational scatterometer sea ice
  products.
• Support for the development of seasonal sea ice
  buoy observing capabilities.
• Exploring Joint / Interagency snow ice center
  of excellence with Army, Air Force.
• Support enhancement of the Antarctic Analysis
  (weekly/partial concentrations).
• Coordination of efforts to meet North American
  Ice Service (NAIS)
• sea ice remote sensing science and operational
  requirements.

5
Specific RD Areas of Interest

• Blending of passive microwave (SSM/I and AMSR-E)
  sea ice concentrations with NIC MIZ product
• Evaluation and transition of QuikSCAT automated
  sea ice products
• Refinement of Beaufort/Chukchi sea ice seasonal
  forecasting approaches through better integration
  of in-situ, satellite, and modeling data
• Increased integration of the NIC ice edge or MIZ
  product into the NOAA Snow and Ice Mapping System
  (IMS)
• Integration of the NIC Great Lakes ice edge or
  MIZ product into the GLERL ice edge and SST daily
  products and model development
• Validation of PIPS 3.0 against other models and
  RS data
• Assimilation of NIC daily ice edge or MIZ product
  into PIPS
• Assimilation of AMSR-E and other satellite ice
  drift into PIPS

6
International Partnerships

• North American Ice Service Science Committee
• International Ice Charting Working Group Science
  an Technology Standing Committee
• International Arctic Buoy Programme Executive
  Committee
• International Programme for Antarctic Buoys
  Executive Committee
• Global Climate Observing System Sea Ice Subgroup
  Executive Committee
• EMEUTSAT Oceans Sea Ice Satellite Applications
  Facility Liaison
• International Geophysics and Remote Sensing
  Symposium Technical Program Committee

7
IPY Activities

• Providèd sea ice charting and remote sensing
  support to the Arctic Submarine Lab and NSF Ice
  Camp 2007, which is expected to provide a unique
  multi-sensor sea ice thickness cross-validation
  dataset
• Providing similar remote sensing support and
  coordination with other field activities in both
  the Arctic and Antarctic regions.
• Hosting a follow-on symposium on the Impact of an
  Ice-diminishing Arctic on Naval and Maritime
  Activities (July 2007)
• Producing of 33-Year Antarctic and 10- Year
  Yellow Sea Climatologies
• Coordinating the development of an Inexpensive
  Airborne Expendable Ice Buoys (AXIB) To provide a
  low cost aircraft droppable (also surface
  deployable) seasonal buoy

8
International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP) US
Interagency Buoy Program (USIABP)

• NIC Science co-manages the US Interagency Buoy
  Program with UW/PSC and coordinates US Arctic
  buoy activities within the IABP
• USIABP/IABP is a key component of the Arctic
  Observing Network (AON)
• Arctic buoy data are critical to NWS and many
  other users providing weather forecasts, NWP, and
  climate modeling
• Arctic buoy data are used by NIC for operational
  ice chart analysis and supports the validation of
  satellite observations and sea ice models
• As of June 3, 2007, there are 76 IABP buoys
  reporting across the Arctic
• White Trident Mission deploys buoys for
  USIABP/IABP over the Arctic from a C-130 (Final
  drop AUG07 / exploring alternatives for FY08 and
  beyond)

9
Absolute Maximum Ice Extent animation using
entire NIC dataset for March 1972-2004
10
NIC Ice Thickness ProxySeasonal Change
11
Arctic Aircraft Altimeter CampaignMarch 2006
Laurence Connor Dave McAdoo-NOAA/LSASeymour
Laxon Andy RidoutUCLBill Krabill-NASA

• Envisat / GLAS Under-flight on NASA P-3
• Instruments
• Airborne Topographic Mapper
• (ATM) Laser Altimeter
• Cameras
• Delay-Doppler Snow Radars

Objective Learn how well the Envisat Radar
Altimeter measures sea ice freeboard
12
AAA Campaign March 27, 2006
Greenland
Envisat/RA2
ATM Coverage
Canada
13
Microwave Radar
Laser Altimeter
Snow
Snow
Floe
Floe
Refrozen Lead
Open Lead
14
Lead / Floe Example
ATM Crosstrack Mean
RA2 Floe
Alongtrack Smoothed
RA2 Lead
Elevation (m)
Alongtrack Distance (m)
15
Refrozen Lead
Floe
600 meters
16
2007 APL Ice CampEM Bird Ice Thickness
Distribution

• Other Thickness
• Observations
• ICESat
• Airborne LA
• EM-31
• Drill holes
• Gavia AUV
• ULS

(Courtesy of Christian Haas Stefan Hendricks)
17
Operational Transition and
Validation PIPS 3.0 Underway

• PIPS 3.0 improvements
• Multi-category, linearly remapped ice thickness
• Energy-based ice ridging
• New ability to predict areas of lead
  opening/closing for the warfighter, ice edge
  location, ice thickness and ice drift
• NIC and CIS (under NAIS) are providing validation
  of PIPS 3.0 output for operational use

Category 1 0.000 0.644 Category 2 0.645
1.391 Category 3 1.392 2.470 Category 4 2.471
4.567 Category 5 4.568 9.333
18
Global Climate Model Simulationsof Summer Sea
Ice Extent
(Stroeve et al. 2007)
19
Perennial Sea Ice Extent
Time-series of area of perennial sea ice extent
estimated by a drift age model (March average)
and satellite-derived ice concentration data and
observed by QuikSCAT scatterometer
(3/21/2003-3/22/2007) within the model domain.
20
Buoy-based Age of Sea Ice
Sep 1987
Russia
Russia
Sep 2006
Alaska
Arctic Ocean
Canada
Age OW 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 Years

• More older, thicker ice.
• Later onset of melt, earlier onset of freeze.
• Winter and summer forcing is more important.

• Less older, thicker ice.
• Earlier onset of melt, more absorbed insolation,
  later onset of freeze, longer melt season
• POSITIVE FEEDBACKS!

(Rigor et al., 2007)
21
QuikSCAT Mapping ofMultiyear Sea Ice Loss
22
IABP Buoy Distribution and Tracks
23
Seasonal Ice Beacons, Ocean Buoys, and
Deployment Alternatives Needed
24
NOAA SBIR Inexpensive AirborneExpendable Ice
Buoys (AXIB)

• Provides a lower cost aircraft droppable seasonal
  buoy (with surface deployment capability)
• Basic sensors/measurements include surface air
  temperature, surface pressure, GPS location, and
  Argos transmitter
• Operation in ice and open water through
  freeze/thaw cycles
• LBI, Inc. awaiting result of SBIR phase II
  competition

Provide alternatives to airborne drops over MYI
25
Boeing P-8A Poseidon

• The U.S. Navy plans to purchase 108 P-8A to
  replace its fleet of P-3 aircraft.
• Long-range anti-submarine warfare, anti-surface
  warfare, intelligence, surveillance, and
  reconnaissance aircraft
• Expected to influence how the U.S. Navy's
  maritime patrol and reconnaissance forces train,
  operate, and deploy
• Preliminary design review, September 2005
• Flight-test delivery of first aircraft, 2009

http//www.boeing.com/defense-space/military/p8a

• Initial operational capability and expected
  full-production decision, 2013

26
Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2005 Record Minimum
Siberia
Greenland
Arctic Ocean
North Atlantic Ocean
Pacific Ocean
North America
(http//NASA.GOV)
27
New Arctic Sea Ice Extent Minimum?
Northern Sea Route
Siberia
Greenland
Trans Polar Route
Arctic Ocean
Northwest Passage
North Atlantic Ocean
Pacific Ocean
North America
28
NIC Hemispheric Ice Extent Charts
29
IPAB Buoy Distribution and Tracks
30
Questions?