Unintentional vs. intentional impacts

1
Unintentional vs. intentional impacts
No impact strategy
Attackers strategy maximizing the expected damage
2
Basic Definitions
lowest-level part of system, which is
characterized by its inherent value, availability
and performance distribution
ELEMENT
quantitative measure of task performing intensity
of element or system (capacity, productivity,
processing speed, task completion time etc.)
PERFORMANCE
collection of elements with the same
functionality connected in parallel in
reliability logic-diagram sense
COMPONENT
3
Basic Definitions
technical or organizational measure aimed at
reduction of destruction probability of a group
of system elements in the case of attack
PROTECTION
action aimed at preventing simultaneous
destruction of several elements in the case of
single attack (can be performed by spatial
dispersion, by encapsulating different elements
into different protective casings, by using
different power sources etc.)
SEPARATION
group of system elements separated from other
elements (and possibly protected) so that a
single external impact destroying elements
belonging to a certain group cannot destroy
elements from other groups
PROTECTION
GROUP
object that imitates protected group of system
elements, but does not contain any element (the
total damage caused by the destruction of any
false target is much lower than the damage caused
by the destruction of any protection group)
FALSE TARGET
4
Defense strategy
Damage
g
Destruction probability
Protection
v
False targets
Impact probability
p
Disinformation
5
Defense Strategy
b g F
dF
Protection cost for each PG
False targets deployment
Element distribution among PG
Attack Probability
Destruction Probability
Damage
Defense Strategy Cost
6
Expected damage model
Attack probability
Protection vulnerability
p
v
g
Equipment losses
Cumulative performance of the group
Expected damage
System performance reduction
Failures
Functional losses
7
Expected Damage Cost
Performance Distribution
Functional losses
Unsupplied demand
Loss of demand
8
Expected Damage Cost
Protections and infrastructure
Destruction of false targets
Functional losses
Elements
System destruction
Optimal defense strategy
Limited defense budget
Unlimited defense budget
9
Single attack strategy
Perfect knowledge about the system
p1
No knowledge about the system
Imperfect knowledge about the system
p
Spi1
10
Multiple attack strategy
Unlimited resource
Limited resource perfect knowledge about the
system
Limited resource imperfect knowledge about the
system
p
Spigt1
11
Attackers Strategy
Single Attack
Multiple Attacks
Perfect attackers knowledge about the system
12
Attackers Strategy
Single Attack
Multiple Attacks
No knowledge about the system
Unlimited resource
Limited resource (E attacks)
Imperfect knowledge about the system