Alternative%20Growth%20Futures%20Studio

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Alternative Growth FuturesStudio

• University of Colorado at Denver
• Sponsors
• Custer Heritage Committee
• San Isabel Foundation
• Sonoran Institute

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Alternative Growth Futures Studio

• The following is a presentation of a growth
• modeling study on Custer County, Colorado.
• The study
• Explores historical growth trends.
• Presents methods for analyzing growth pressures.
• Models growth based on statistical analysis.
• Presents alternative visions for future growth.
• Graphically displays specific growth scenarios
  utilizing GIS (Geographic Information Systems).

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Alternative Growth Futures Studio

• Project explore alternative development
  scenarios for Custer County
• Model create and analyze digital maps of growth
  options

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Custer CountyThe past

• In 1870, Custer County had almost no year round
  residents.
• By 1893, over 9,000 people called Custer County
  their home.
• It will happen again ...

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Custer CountySince 1990

• The countys population has more than doubled.
• 88 of all privately held land has been sold.
• 45 of land buyers purchased 35 acre parcels.
• Over 12,000 acres have been developed.

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Custer CountyThe future

• By the year 2025
• Population is likely to increase to 8,147
• 4,122 new homes are likely to be built
• The county will be more urban than it is today.
  There will be a stoplight!

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Alternative Growth FuturesObjectives

• To present methods for analyzing growth and
  development pressures.
• To define alternative visions for future
  development within the county.
• To make forecasting tools available to the
  county.

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Alternative Growth FuturesAssumptions

• The year 2025
• Population (currently 3,760 residents) will
  increase to 8,147 residents
• There will be 4,122 new households
• 7,047 of all residents (86) will live in
  unincorporated parts of the county

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Statistical Model

• Evaluates historical patterns of development
• Ranks all parcels according to development
  probabilities
• Projects growth into the future based on
  scenarios
• Basis for policy simulation

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Alternative Growth FuturesScenarios

• Four development scenarios describe
  anticipated growth to the year 2025
• Historical Patterns
• Open Space and Agricultural Protection
• Cluster
• Current Market Trends
• ALL SCENARIOS ASSUME THE SAME NUMBER OF NEW
  HOUSEHOLDS.

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Alternative Growth FuturesScenarios
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Historical Patterns Scenario

• Averages historical development patterns across
  the county
• Ranks parcels according to probability of
  development

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Open Space and Agricultural Protection Scenario

• Development locations constrained by resource
  values
• Resource values defined by agricultural lands,
  natural habitat and water availability
• Agriculture Habitat Water
• Hayfields TE Habitat Yield
• Rangeland Game Habitat Depth
• Low Slopes Rare Plants

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Cluster Scenario

• Increases density of new development
• Constrains location of growth by resource
  protection

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Cluster Development

• A well-planned cluster development concentrates
  development in suitable areas of a subdivision
  while preserving surrounding lands with highest
  resource value.

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Cluster Development
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Effects of Cluster Development
Density Options for a 40-Unit Subdivision
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Effects of Cluster Development
Density Options Countywide
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Cluster Development

• Potential to
• Accommodate projected future population
• Decrease infrastructure requirements.
• Preserve ranchland and open space.

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Current Market Trends Scenario

• Captures current market preference for larger lot
  development.
• Average density of 35 acres / dwelling unit.
• Assumes zoning change to permit PUDs

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Impacts to Local Resources

• Acreage lost to development (based on Current
• Market Trends Scenario)
• Resource Acreage Lost
• Hayfields 29,873
• Rangeland 93,632
• TE Species Habitat 17,635
• Game Species Habitat 10,601

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Current Development 3-D Flythrough of Custer
County
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Current Market Trends Scenario 3-D
Flythrough of Custer County
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Alternative Growth FuturesSummary

• Most of the private land in the county will be
  developed by 2025 under current market trends
• Current land markets favor development outside of
  towns at very low density (average lot sizes of
  between 15 and 40 acres)

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Alternative Growth FuturesSummary

• It may be impossible to sustain a viable ranching
  economy in the county without strengthening
  zoning protections.
• Higher density development permits the county to
  absorb the same number of homes while protecting
  natural resources.

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• What is important to you?