Modelling across scales: the IMAGE model

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Modelling across scalesthe IMAGE model

• Tom Kram

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Structure of IMAGE 2.2

Change in GDP, population others (i.e.
scenario assumptions)
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Regional and spatial dimensions
17(19) world regions
box
0.5 x 0.5 grid
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Emissions and sources in IMAGE 2.2

• EMISSIONS
• CO2
• Methane
• Nitrous oxide
• Cl/F/Br gases
• CO
• NOx
• SO2
• VOC
• (BC/OC)

• SOURCES
• Energy consumption production (10 fuel types)
• Industrial processes
• Waste
• Animal husbandry
• (5 types of livestock)
• Agriculture
• (8 crop types)
• Land use / soils
• (19 land cover types)
• Natural sources

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Mitigation side-effects
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Decreased SO2 due to less CO2 impacts on T
Emissions
Concentrations
B1
CO2
B1_450
Rate of Temp. change
Emissions
SO2
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Side-effects of biomass energy
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More biomass less energy CO2, more LU CO2
Primary Energy Use Modern biomass
Total Primary Energy Use
A1FI
A1T
CO2 Emissions Land-use
CO2 Emissions Energy
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Clearly, more anthropogenic land-use because of
higher demand for modern biofuels
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(Regional) land cover change matters for climate
effect (A1b / North America)
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Linkage with ECBilt
IMAGE-ECBilt link GHG land cover patterns
IMAGE-ECBilt link GHG only
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Global change interrelated with air pollution A2
high energy use scenario
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(No Transcript)
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NOx emissions (kg N km-2 yr-1 related to
fertilizer application
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Future plans

• Enhanced multi-emission (reduction) module for
  IMAGE/TIMER
• Revisit reactive gas projections for SRES
• Add BC/OC, ammonia and natural VOCs
• Revisit emission trends and drivers
• Include atmospheric chemistry scheme in
  conjunction with climate model (Speedy) to assess
  continental scale ozone (co-op with MPI Mainz)

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Thank you for your attention
www.rivm.nl/ieweb or www.rivm.nl/image