Adrian%20Simmons

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Monitoring and forecasting atmospheric
constituents European initiatives for provision
of climate and air-quality information

• Adrian Simmons
• European Centre for Medium-Range Weather
  Forecasts
• with acknowledgments to all colleagues in GEMS

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GMESGlobal Monitoring for Environment and
Security

• a European initiative for the implementation of
  information services on environment and security
• jointly supported by the European Commission and
  the European Space Agency
• fostering the development of five services
• Atmosphere
• Land
• Ocean
• Emergency Response
• Security

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Atmospheric services for Europe
Weather forecasting services
Climate information services
GMES atmospheric services
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GMES atmospheric services Services related to
the chemical and particulate content of the
atmosphere
National and European weather agencies
Global distributions and net sources/sinks of
greenhouse gases and aerosols
European air quality Long-range transport Sand
and dust storms Solar energy resources Exposure
to UV radiation
National and European environmental agencies
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Global and regional Earth-system Monitoring using
Satellite and in-situ data

• A 32-partner European project, developing
• global modelling and data assimilation for
  greenhouse gases, reactive gases and aerosols
• a global production system, including
  surface-flux estimation of greenhouse gases
• collaborative regional modelling, analysis and
  forecasting of air quality for Europe
• Strong ECMWF and National Met Service involvement
• 10.5 people at ECMWF, 9 NMS partners
• 11 NMS partners in follow-on

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GEMS tasks at ECMWF

• Project coordination (Adrian Simmons)
• Reactive gases (Antje Dethof, Johannes Flemming,
  Luke Jones)
• Couple IFS with global CTMs, carrying O3, CO,
  NO2, SO2 and HCHO
• in the IFS, and develop data assimilation
• Aerosols (Angela Benedetti, Johannes Kaiser,
  Jean-Jacques Morcrette)
• Implement in IFS, based on externally-produced
  parameterizations, and develop data assimilation
• Greenhouse gases (Richard Engelen, Soumia Serrar)
• Introduce CO2 and CH4 into global ECMWF weather
  forecast model (IFS) and develop data
  assimilation
• Acquisition of global data, and provision of
  support for regional air-quality forecasting
  (Miha Razinger, Martin Suttie)
• Near-real-time and retrospective (2003-2007)
  running of integrated global system (Everyone)

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Three types of result from global GEMS system

• Model simulation
• Extended sequence of 12-hour forecasts
• Meteorological variables are reset to analysed
  values from ECMWF archives
• GEMS composition variables are carried over from
  preceding 12-hour forecasts
• Used as basis for first set of near-real-time
  forecasts
• Control
• Data assimilation for meteorological variables,
  with 6h or 12h cycling
• No data assimilated for GEMS composition
  variables
• Similar to model simulation, with differences due
  to different meteorological analyses and possibly
  cycling period
• Assimilation
• Data assimilation for meteorological variables
  and (some) GEMS composition variables, with 6h or
  12h cycling

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Coupled IFS-CTM reactive-gas forecasting system
0 3
6 9
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Chemical Transport Model
IFS
Meteorology
3 CTMs MOCAGE, MOZART and TM5
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Real-time forecasts (without reactive-gas
assimilation)
H6 to H72 From 00UTC Friday 6 June 2008
Surface carbon monoxide
http//gems.ecmwf.int
Surface ozone
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Comparisons with ozonesonde data
Hohenpeissenberg
2 May 2007
4 June 2007
9 July 2007
System without data assimilation overestimates
ozone in the stratosphere and near the surface,
but captures layering in the UTLS
Carlos Ordóñez and Jean-Pierre Cammas
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Mean CO from 15 to 30 July 2003 from assimilation
of MOPITT total-column data
Control
Assimilation
Assimilation - Control
Unit 1018 molec/cm2
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Comparison of 850 hPa CO and O3 from MOZART CTM
with MOZAIC aircraft data for Frankfurt,Summer
2003
heatwave
heatwave
measured
CO
measured
Ozone
modelled
modelled
O3 (ppb)
CO (ppb)
July August

July August

Martin Schultz, Olaf Stein, Carlos Ordóñez
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Assimilation of MOPITT total-column CO data
Control
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Comparisons with MOZAIC data impact of
assimilation
Houston (3 profiles)
Frankfurt (18 profiles)

• Assimilation for January 2003 of
• SCIAMACHY total ozone
• MIPAS ozone profiles
• SBUV ozone layers
• GOME ozone profiles
• improves fit of tropospheric ozone profiles to
  MOZAIC data

Assimilation
Control
MOZAIC
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European heat-wave 2003 (from 2003-2007
reanalysis)
Ozone
Temperature
7d-mean measured ozone (ppb) 14-16UTC Bottesford,
Leicestershire www.airquality.co.uk
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European heat-wave 2003 (from 2003-2007
reanalysis)
Ozone
Temperature
7d-mean measured ozone (ppb) 14-16UTC Bottesford,
Leicestershire www.airquality.co.uk
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(No Transcript)
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Real-time forecasts
06UTC 36h
Without assimilation
Assimilating O3 data from OMI, SBUV,
SCIAMACHY AOD from MODIS To come CO from
IASI O3, NO2 from GOME-2, NRT fire from
SEVIRI and MODIS
With assimilation
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Real-time forecasts
06UTC 30h
Without assimilation
Assimilating O3 data from OMI, SBUV,
SCIAMACHY AOD from MODIS To come CO from
IASI O3, NO2 from GOME-2, NRT fire from
SEVIRI and MODIS
With assimilation
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Distributed system for regional air quality
forecasts

• 10 regional air-quality models run daily
• on common European domain
• with common ECMWF meteorological forcing and
  boundary values from global GEMS system
• with common emissions
• with common GRIB2 output format
• Output sent to ECMWF for
• archiving
• derivation of ensemble forecast products
• web display
• validation
• Near-real-time provision of national air-quality
  data (under MoUs) for validation of forecasts
• to ECMWF in common BUFR format

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Comparison of four model test-release simulations
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The first three members of the GEMS regional
ensemble
EURAD-IM
3-day forecasts of surface NO2 from 00UTC 11
January 2008
MOCAGE
NAME-AQ
http//gems.ecmwf.int
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Ensemble regional forecast products
http//gems.ecmwf.int
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Successive daily 63h ozone forecasts from CHIMERE
http//gems.ecmwf.int
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Successive daily 63h ozone forecasts from
MOZART-IFS
http//gems.ecmwf.int
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Verification over past week
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Total column ozone
EPS/TOMS 4 Sept 2003
GEMS
PROMOTE/TEMIS
12UTC 4 Sept 2003
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UV-radiation products Biologically effective dose
UV-radiation processor incorporated in ECMWF
model in collaboration with A. Arola, FMI Web
plots show biologically effective dose for total
sky and clear sky Increased over Antarctic
Peninsula due to ozone hole in this example
http//gems.ecmwf.int
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Aerosol model development

• Model includes
• Sea salt (3 bins, with parametrized source)
• Desert dust (3 bins, with parametrized source)
• Black carbon and organic matter (hydrophilic
  and hydrophobic, with specified sources)
• Sulphate aerosol (with specified precursor
  emissions)
• Separate scheme for stratospheric aerosols
• Development (validation, improved modelling and
  emissions) is ongoing

Olivier Boucher and colleagues
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Real-time forecasts (without aerosol data
assimilation)
http//gems.ecmwf.int
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Aerosol forecasts compared with AERONET data
Forecast
AERONET
No aerosol data assimilated
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Comparison of GEMS simulated and analysed aerosol
optical depth with MODIS and MISR for July 2003
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Saharan dust outbreak 6 March 2004
Model simulation
Assimilation
MODIS
Aerosol optical depth at 550nm (upper) and
670/675nm (lower)
SEVIRI
Cape Verde Dakar
AERONET
Assimilation
Simulation
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Case study Fire emissions in August 2007
Observed Fire Radiative Power (from SEVIRI on
Meteosat) is converted to emitted aerosol. Run
at 25km global resolution rather than 125km
standard GEMS global resolution. Joint work with
FREEVAL project (M. Wooster, G. van der Werf, ).
26 August 1000
2007-08-25 1205
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Near-real-time fire emissions
From SEVIRI FRP and MODIS hot spots
http//gems.ecmwf.int
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Mean column CO2 from assimilation of AIRS
radiances
January 2003
July 2003
January 2004
http//gems.ecmwf.int
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Modelling challenges
TRANSCOM-4 model comparisons
Bias (ppm) in CO2 simulation
Law et al. (2008)
N. Hem stations
S. Hem
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Sensitivity of analyses to land-surface fluxes
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CO2 flux inversion from AIRS data assimilation
Cumulated surface flux increments derived from
first CO2 analyses for January-November
2003 Positive values imply flux into atmosphere.
(gCm-2)
Change in RMS fit to GLOBALVIEW-CO2 (2006) data
from use of incremented fluxes from latest
analysis in LMDZ transport-model simulations
(ppm)
Peter Rayner, Frédéric Chevallier
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Envisaged evolution of the coreGMES Atmospheric
Service
GEMS EC-funded GMES project developing new
systems 2005 - 2009
PROMOTE ESA-funded GMES project delivering user
services 2004 - 2009
MACC Monitoring Atmospheric Composition
Climate A pilot pre-operational GMES Atmospheric
Service 2009 - 2011
Operational core GMES Atmospheric Service 2012 -
........
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MACC Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and
Climate

• A 48-partner successor to GEMS and the ESA-funded
  GMES Service Element project PROMOTE

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In conclusion

• GEMS systems are implemented and work
• with near-real-time assimilation just starting
• with clear scope for ongoing scientific and
  technical improvement
• Primary usage is of satellite data on composition
  for assimilation
• and of in-situ data on composition for
  validation
• with new satellite data (GOSAT, OCO, ) eagerly
  awaited
• with scope for some active use of in-situ data
• Plans are in place for the follow-on project
  MACC, with more formalised product delivery and
  user interaction
• but contract negotiations with European
  Commission continue
• Long-term operation of observing and
  assimilation/modelling systems still needs to be
  secured
• but preparations are progressing well