Summary of the

1

• Summary of the Group of 7 National Laboratory
  Directors Recommendations for the Future of
  Nuclear Energy
• Craig F. Smith
• Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
• 15 November 2004

2
Three issues are driving concerns related to the
global uses of nuclear technology.
International Stability

• National Security

• Demand increases on resources
• Unreliable fuel supplies
• Population and standard of living growth
• Proliferation of WMD

• Cost reliability of fuel energy
• Infrastructure vulnerability
• Terrorist Activities
• Proliferation of nuclear dirty weapons

• Environmental Integrity
• Particulate emissions
• Greenhouse gas emissions
• Global warming
• Water supply quality/quantity

3
Energy demand growth is occurring globally, and
the greatest growth rates will be in the
developing world

Energy stress will involve fuel suppliers, power
generation, transportation of fuel, and energy
distribution infrastructures
4
Internationally there are ongoing plans for
nuclear energy expansion

• 33 Countries with nuclear power plants
• Worldwide 366 GWe installed, 35 GWe currently
  under construction (2/year growth rate)
• China has the most aggressive program
• -- Chinas nuclear energy plan -- Chinas fast
  reactor plans
• Present 6.1 GWe Experimental 25MWe
  (2006)
• 2020 32 GWe Prototype300-600 MWe(2020)
• 2030 45-50 GWe Large 1000-1500 MWe
  (2025)
• 2050 240 GWe Modular 4-6x300 MWe (2025)

Managing nuclear materials and proliferation is
becoming increasingly complex, requiring a
modernized international approach.
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Several National Laboratory Directors have joined
forces to consider the global role of nuclear
energy

• Initially, a group known as the Tri-Lab met to
  consider the global future of nuclear energy. The
  Tri-Lab consisted of the Directors from LLNL,
  LANL and ANL
• Subsequently the Tri Lab was expanded to include
  ORNL, INEL,and SNL (6-Lab) and, most recently,
  PNNL (7-Lab).
• In July 2002, the 6-Lab Directors sent a letter
  detailing their vision to Secretary Abraham
  entitled Enabling a Global Nuclear Future.
• In April 2003, the Lab Directors sent Secretary
  Abraham an Action Plan entitled Nuclear Energy
  Power for the 21st Century.
• More recently, the 7-Laboratory group sponsored
  a Decision-Makers Forum on Nuclear Energy, and
  has initiated collaborative discussions with
  their Russian national laboratory counterparts

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The Six Seven National Lab Directors Developed an
Action Plan that Supports a Strong US Nuclear
Energy Program

Vision Sustainable peace, prosperity, and
environmental quality, enabled through immediate
U.S. leadership in the global expansion of
nuclear energy systems
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The 6(7)-Lab Nuclear Energy Action Plan Goal 1
addresses environmental security.

• Goal 1 Reduce air pollution and global climate
  risk and improve energy security by meeting an
  increasing fraction of future US and world energy
  needs through safe and economic nuclear energy
  solutions

Provide incentives to encourage industry to order
a new nuclear power plant by 2008
Demonstrate hydrogen production in an advanced
reactor by 2010-2012 One pound of nuclear fuel
250,000 gallons hydrogen equivalent
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Goal 2 addresses spent fuel and radioactive
waste.

• Goal 2 Achieve a 90 reduction of reactor waste
  requiring repository disposal by 2050 by
  significantly reducing the amount of uranium,
  plutonium, and minor actinides in disposed waste

Construct a fast-spectrum reactor prototype by
2020 for electricity production and nuclear
materials management
Construct pilot recycle and waste form facilities
by 2010 to reduce waste
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Goal 3 focuses on the reduction of proliferation
risk.

• Goal 3 While expanding the use of nuclear
  technology world wide, reduce the threat of
  nuclear weapons proliferation

Enable cradle-to-grave services through advanced
materials management and very efficient
exportable reactors
Demonstrate nuclear fuel recycle in an advanced
reactor by 2020
Demonstrate a global nuclear materials management
system by 2020
10
The US and Russian Lab Directors met in Vienna to
discuss their respective views on the future of
Nuclear Energy

• The Directors agreed on the importance of
  energy to international security, economic
  prosperity, and global stability nuclear energy
  must be considered a key component of future
  global energy systems
• A proactive approach to development of global
  nuclear energy has the potential to offer a safe,
  abundant and clean energy source while directly
  dealing with the issue of nuclear materials
  management and weapons proliferation
• A comprehensive and integrated international
  plan for the development and deployment of
  nuclear energy is needed.

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World leaders recognize that a new approach is
needed, and that non-proliferation must be a
major emphasis

• The DOE Laboratory Directors concluded that
• The time has come to develop a comprehensive and
  realistic plan to ensure the development and
  deployment of nuclear energy. It must preserve
  access to nuclear energy for all countries of the
  world, and in parallel, reduce the risks of
  nuclear arms proliferation, nuclear terrorism
  and hazardous impacts on environment and
  population health.
• US and Russian Lab Directors are working jointly
• Presidents Bush and Putin, as well as Director
  General ElBaradei of the IAEA, have all called
  for this new paradigm. Our organizations, who
  developed this world-changing energy source 50
  years ago, must take this challenge together.

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Major Concerns Continue Despite the Successes of
the NPT Regime

• DESPITE THE SUCCESSES OF THE NPT REGIME..
• Previous Threshold States Have Signed the NPT
• South Africa (the first nation to actually
  disassemble a nuclear weapons stockpile)
• Argentina
• Brazil
• Cuba
• Algeria
• South Korea
• Taiwan
• All of the successor states of the FSU have
  signed the NPT
• The last two holdout nuclear weapons states
  France and China, signed the NPT in 1988 and
  1992, respectively
• India and Pakistan are entering into cooperation
  agreements
• NEVERTHELESS, MAJOR PROLIFERATION CONCERNS
  CONTINUE.
• North Korea
• Iran
• Libya

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Any Future Approach Must Address
Non-Proliferation Concerns

• The 4 Non-Proliferation Cornerstones
• Assured fuel supplies for economic stability
• Assured waste fuel take back
• Robust international monitoring system
• Agreed enforcement norms
• ALL 4 HAVE BOTH TECHNICAL and POLICY ASPECTS

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Any approach must comprehensively address the
challenges faced by nuclear power

• Issues and challenges for nuclear power
• Controlling nuclear material (proliferation)
• Spent Nuclear Fuel
• Excess Defense Materials (Pu and HEU)
• Research reactor fuels (HEU)
• Radiological sources
• Addressing nuclear waste
• Ensuring safety of materials and facilities
• Achieving economic competitiveness for nuclear
  power

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New Science and Technology must be deployed
internationally

• Enhanced safeguards for implementation of
  additional protocol
• New paradigm for fuel cycle supplier/user states
• Build on existing agreements with NPT and IAEA
• Manage fresh fuel supplies and waste returns
• Advanced nuclear systems are essential
• -- Reactors (long life cores, deep burn, etc.)
• -- Advanced Fuels (unattractive for diversion)
• -- Fuel cycles (controls, actinide consumption)
• -- Integrated safeguards (sensors, information
  technologies)
• -- Waste management (cost effective, material
  efficient)

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For example, the Small Secure Transportable
Autonomous Reactor (SSTAR) offers a novel approach

• SSTAR is a concept being jointly developed by
  LLNL, ANL and LANL
• Sealed core no on-site refueling
• Transportability entire core and reactor
  vessel remain as a unit
• Long-life Core target is 30-year core life
• Simple integrated controls minimum operator
  intervention or maintenance required
• Local and remote observability rapid detection
  response to perturbations
• Minimum industrial infrastructure required in
  host location
• Very small operational (and security) footprint

• TO BE COMPLETED

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Conclusions

• Nuclear energy is expanding globally, resulting
  in increased complexity for managing nuclear
  materials and proliferation risk.
• The need for a new international approach is
  recognized by the worlds leaders and now
  requires the technologists input.
• New science and technology will underpin any new
  approach
• Not all countries will need, nor can they afford
  full fuel cycle capabilities resulting in
  supplier/user relationships.
• International stability will require all of these
  actions.

It is incumbent upon the major nuclear powers to
provide leadership in technology for defining a
modern cradle-to-grave approach for managing
nuclear materials, globally.