EMOSIA: European MOdel for ATM Strategic Investment Analysis

1
EMOSIA European MOdel for ATM Strategic
Investment Analysis

• ATC Maastricht
• 2005 Seminars, 1 February
• Bernard Lacroix
• EUROCONTROL

2
Why EMOSIA?

• To take the best informed decision for an ATM
  investment knowing that
• There are no facts about the future, only
  uncertainties
• The decision making process can be long through
  multiple phases
• There is a long lead time for investment
• Many stakeholders are involved

3
EMOSIA is a CBA approach

• Consisting of
• Processes, models and output
• Based on
• More than 10 years of experience
• Industry best practice
• Stakeholders consensus
• Offering
• A platform for informed decision-making
• A common language for cost and benefit analyses

4
How EMOSIA works?
Steps
Output
Process
5
An example of sensitivity analysis with EMOSIA

• The two top uncertainties contribute to more than
  90 of the swing in project value whilst the
  remainder contribute to only 10
• EMOSIA focuses on what really matters by
  identifying the most critical variables to the
  success of the project

Project value (In Million of euros)
70
60
80
90
100
Uncertainties
Equipage cost savings
ANS charge savings
Cost per min of delay
Flight efficiency gain
Cost per flight min
Delay saving
6
An example of risk analysis with EMOSIA

• EMOSIA weighs the risk of the decision by
  integrating the uncertainties of the project in a
  range of expected values
• EMOSIA allows to compare a project portfolio with
  regard to their respective values and their
  respective risk

7
EMOSIA is already used

• EUROCONTROL and European Commission projects, for
  example
• Data link implementation in Europe (LINK2000)
• Advanced surveillance and data link applications
  (CASCADE)
• CAMES
• Collaborative-ATM (C-ATM)
• SEAP
• AENA
• MEDINA

8
Whats so special about EMOSIA?

• Takes uncertainty into account
• Provides consistency
• Provides traceability
• Has strong buy-in from stakeholders
• Is efficient and flexible
• Is suited from early in ATM project life-cycle

9
EMOSIA, a Team work
You can count on us

• Bernard Lacroix
• Bernard.Lacroix_at_eurocontrol.int
• 32 (0) 2 7293601

• Paula Leal de Matos
• Paula.Leal-de-Matos_at_eurocontrol.int
• 32 (0) 2 7294689

EUROCONTROL Strategy and Performance Rue de La
Fusee, 96 B-1130 Brussels, Belgium
www.eurocontrol.int