Ort, Datum

1
UNFCCCGeneral and cross-cutting issues -
summary of the discussions -Workshop on
emissions projectionBonn, Germany 6-8 September
2004

• Hans-Joachim Ziesing

2
Presentations

• The following countries made presentations at
  this session
• - Australia- Austria- Belgium- Bulgaria-
  Denmark- European Commission- Germany- Japan-
  New Zealand- Norway- Slovenia
• The exchange of experience through these
  presentations and subsequent discussions was very
  useful and important.

3
Consistent definition of projection scenarios

• A 'with measures' scenario should be provided
  and be in accordance with the definitions in the
  UNFCCC reporting guidelines.
• Beside this it seems to be necessary to have a
  common understanding of what "with measures"
  are.

4
Preparation of scenarios

• The 'with measures' scenario should include all
  policies and measures currently in place,
  irrespective of whether their primary objective
  was the mitigation of GHG emissions or not.
• Those Annex I Parties that wish to provide GHG
  projections data for a 'without measures' and/or
  a 'with additional measures' scenario, should
  make every effort to ensure that the GHG
  mitigation policies and measures included in
  these scenarios are clearly identified and the
  information on how these measures are modeled is
  transparent and sufficient.

5
Transparent presentation of information on
projections

• The need of more transparancy of information on
  projections provided in the presentations was
  discussed.
• GHG projections data both on a sectoral and on a
  gas-by-gas basis should be provided.
• The secretariat will present a template for a
  table to provide this information.

6
Consistency with the latest available GHG
inventory

• Due to time-scale problems it will probably not
  be possible to assure the consistency with the
  latest available GHG inventories.
• Beside this no significant inconsistencies are
  expected. So this seems not to be a very
  important issue.
• It is important to use a finalised version of the
  inventory.

7
Availability of information on modelling
approaches and key assumptions

• The need of presenting the projection models and
  modelling approaches in a transparent way and to
  make a defined set of key assumptions obligatory
  for the National Communications were discussed.
• Such information, presented within reasonable
  space limitations, would provide an insight to
  the reader on the methods/models used and would
  contribute to the transparency of the national
  communications.
• Summary information on the methodologies, models
  and key assumptions used for projections
  therefore should be provided.

8
Incorporation of technological progress

• In most technological orientated models the
  technological progress is directly incorporated
  in the different techniques used in this models.
• The most common method of integrating
  technological progress into GHG projections was
  by using exogenous assumptions on changes in
  model parameters due to technological progress.
• Methods that represent technological progress
  endogenously seem to require further development.

9
Integration of cross-country factors, impacts on
other countries, and international market
developments into national GHG projections

• Developing GHG projections is primarily a
  national exercise that relies on available
  national socio-economic data.
• From the information that is currently available
  no assessment can be made on whether and to what
  extent such factors are taken into consideration
  when GHG projections are prepared.
• Annex I Parties may wish to identify those areas
  of their economy that could be mostly affected by
  such factors and explore what effects these
  factors would have on their GHG projections.

10
Methods for assessing the uncertainty in
projected GHG emissions

• The most preferred method for estimating the
  uncer-tainty in projected GHG emissions has been
  sensitivity analysis.
• The workshop emphasized the value of uncertainty
  analysis and recommends such analyses as an
  element in GHG projection.
• The workshop discussed the advantage for using a
  common set of defined parameters for sensitivity
  analyses.

11
Applicability and comparative advantages of
various types of models

• National presentations revealed a wide diversity
  of the models and methods used for GHG
  projections.
• It is not possible to indicate whether any
  modelling type could be particularly useful for
  a given aspect of GHG projection modelling.
• Use of a single model or a single approach for
  many countries was found to be not feasible and
  useful for many reasons.
• It was agreed that there is a need to improve the
  transparency of the information provided in the
  national communications.

12
Possible means to facilitate comparability of
national GHG projections

• It was discussed that the availability of
  information on a key set of assumptions (GDP
  growth, population growth, fuel prices,
  electricity exports/imports etc.) could improve
  the comparability of GHG projections across Annex
  I Parties.
• The idea of using the same data for some
  parameters, such as oil prices on the
  international market or global macroeconomic
  trends, was discussed, although the
  implementation of such idea may be difficult.

13
Projection of macroeconomic costs and impacts of
climate-related measures

• The UNFCCC guidelines do not require information
  on such projections.
• Obtaining such information is a complex task, the
  results of which require significant analysis and
  interpretation.
• Current collaborative research efforts to compare
  such information from different models have shown
  that results are model-dependent to a large
  degree.
• Those Annex I Parties that wish to provide such
  information should also provide information on
  how these costs and impacts were estimated.

14
Other general and cross-cutting issues

• Proposal was made to discuss
• Methodologies on implementing Win/Win policies
  and Measures
• Methodology on assessing terms of trade and
  socio-economic impacts on individual developing
  countries
• Methodology on assessing the impacts on
  developing countries of policies already
  implemented by Annex I Parties
• Methodologies to improve the guidelines for the
  preparation of national communications by Annex I
  Parties to include all activities related to the
  impact of response measures as been adopted under
  decision 5/CP.7
• Methodologies on assessing the spillover effects
  of Annex I response measures on non-Annex I
  countries.
• It was requested that the secretariat should
  ensure that the report reflects the discussions
  on these issues

15
To help the dissemination of methodologies please
indicate ...

• the information on the website, where your
  projections/models/methods are presented
• give this informations to the UNFCCC secretariat,
  which
• will pass this informations to all the
  participants