Empirical Modeling and Knowledge TransferUniversity of Colorado

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The Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling
Empirical Model Chain
The Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling
empirical model chainconsists of models drawn
from a wide variety of sources with the goalof
providing sun-to-Earth predictions for space
weather research andapplications. The major goal
of this chain is to provide a commonframework
for empirical models. In this way additional
models can beeasily integrated, compared, and
validated by members of industry,government, and
the broader research community. The chain
currentlyconsists of the WSA solar-wind
propagation model that uses solarmagnetogram
measurements to specify the solar-wind velocity
and otherquantities near Earth. Using the
velocity as an input driver are twoenergetic
electron models, an Ap index model, and a dB/dt
model.
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Knowledge Transfer and Empirical Modeling Team

• D. Baker (CU/LASP)
• R. Weigel (CU/LASP)
• D. Vassiliadis (NASA/GSFC)
• A. Klimas (NASA/GSFC)
• R. McPherron (UCLA)

• G. Siscoe (BU)
• N. Crooker (BU)
• H. Spence (BU)
• H. Singer (SEC/NOAA)
• T. Onsager (SEC/NOAA)
• N. Arge (SEC/NOAA)

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Outline of Chain
ACE Measurements
MeV Electron Flux
L1-Earth Propagation
r V B
External Field
Solar Boundary Measurements
SW Propagation
Surface dB/dt
Ap
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Sharing Knowledge with Space Physics Community

• Common framework allows for rapid addition of new
  models and ensemble prediction
• Models are presented to research community on a
  web site with documentation and links to other
  resources

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Leveraging Community-Developed models
Earth
Weimer L1-Earth Propagation Model
Tsyganenko External Field model
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Sun-to-Earth Modeling and Forecasts
Earth
Wang-Sheely Model modified by Arge
Sun
Mount Wilson Observatory Solar Magnetograms
Solar Wind Velocity
CISM Energetic Electron Models
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Sun-to-Earth Modeling and Forecasts
Earth
Wang-Sheely Model modified by Arge
Sun
Mount Wilson Observatory Solar Magnetograms
Solar Wind Velocity
CISM Surface dB/dt Model
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