Extreme Events II: Poverty and Conflict

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Extreme Events II Poverty and Conflict

• November 7, 2007

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Reminders

• Abstract due Friday
• You can skip the financial crises readings -- but
  still come to class on Friday

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Readings for Today

• Collier Breaking the Conflict Trap Chapters 1
  and 6

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Overview

• Reading Quiz
• Lecture on Conflict and poverty
• Case Study of Darfur, Sudan

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Interstate Wars Since 1945, including wars of
independence (WI)
Africa Algeria WI, 1954-1962 Angola WI
1961-1975 Cameroon WI 1955-1960
Eritrea-Ethiopia 1998-2002 Guinea-Bissau WI
1962-1974 Kenya WI, 1952-1963 Madagascar WI
1947-48 Mozambique WI 1965-1975 Tunisia
1952-54 Asia Afghan-Soviet War 1979-1988
Cambodia 1970-1979 India-China, 1962
India-Pakistan 1971 Indonesia WI, 1945-49
Korean War 1950-53 Laos 1960-73 Vietnam WI,
Vietnam War and wars with Cambodia and China,
1946-1975, 1978-79, 1987 Latin
America Argentina-Britain (Falklands/Malvinas),
1982, plus US intervention in Dominican Republic
1965 El Salvador civil war 1979-90 Guatamala
1954 Haiti 1991-94 Nicaraguan civil war
1981-88 Panama 1989 Middle East Iran-Iraq
1980-1988 First and Second Gulf Wars 1991
2003-present Israel and its neighbors 1948-49,
1956, 1967-70, 1973, 1982-present
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Civil Wars Ongoing or Ended in Last 10 Years
Africa Angola, 1995-1997, 1998-2002 Burundi,
1988-1991, 1993-2001 First Congo War, Zaire etc,
1996-1997 Second Congo War, DRC, 1998-present
Republic of the Congo, 1997, 1998 Côte d'Ivoire,
1999-2000, 2002-present Liberia, 1989-1996,
1999-present Rwanda, 1990-1997 Sierra Leone,
1991-2002 Somalian Civil War, 1991-present
Sudanese Civil War, Sudan, 1983-present Darfur
from 2003 Uganda, 1987-present Asia Cambodia,
1978-1993, 1997-1998 East Timor/Indonesia,
1975-1999 Nepalese People's War, Nepal,
1996-present Philippines (Mindanao), 1972-1996
Sri Lanka (Tamil succession), 1983-2001 Latin
America Colombia, 1964-present Guatemala,
1960-1996 Chiapas, Mexico, 1994-present Middle
East Afghanistan, 1992-2002 Kurdistan, Iraq,
Kurdish Democratic Party, Patriotic Union of
Kurdistan, 1961-1970, 1988-2003 Israel,
1967-present Yemen, 1979-1989, 1994,
2000s Former Socialist Countries First Chechen
War (1994-1996) Second Chechen War
(1999-present), Chechnya, Russia Georgian Civil
War, Abkhazia, South Ossetia in Georgia Yugoslav
wars, Yugoslavia, 1991-1995, 1996-1999, 2001
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Civil War as Development in Reverse

• Link to growth
• The diversion of resources from investment and
  consumption to fighting
• The destruction
• The targeting of infrastructure (Iraq)
• The looting of assets and crops the economics
  and political terror of insurgency
• Human deaths
• Refugees and internally displaced people (IDP)

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Combat deaths over half accounted for by Chinese
Civil War (1946-49) Korean War (1950-53)
Vietnam War (1955-75) Iran-Iraq War (1980-88)
and Afghan Wars (1978-2002), but.
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Humanitarian Dilemmas I

•   Humanitarian principles and the political
  concerns of the NGOs and donors
• Aid to those in need based on objective
  assessment
• Non-discriminatory
• Delivery should be transparent and monitored to
  avoid diversion (Korean case again)
• Direct contact with affected populations
• including nutritional and other health
  assessments (weight to age, weight to height,
  height to age)

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Humanitarian Dilemmas II

• In North Korea, a hard state that consistently
  sought to limit access of monitors
• In civil war settings
• Central governments can oppose humanitarian
  operations seen as assisting rebels and
• Rebels will seek to control aid flows to
  themselves and control camps
• Is humanitarian relief possible in civil conflict
  settings? And if not, who will
• Mediate the dispute
• Enforce agreement
• and provide population protection in the
  interim?
• War termination as a humanitarian issue

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Conflict History

• First Sudanese Civil War (1955-1972)
• Second Sudanese Civil War (1983-2005)
• 2.2 million killed, 4 million internally
  displaced people
• 9/11 stimulates US engagement
• Framework agreement signed in 2002 restarted both
  talks and re-opened humanitarian operations in
  the South
• lthough access was frequently denied by both
  government and rebel forces
• Comprehensive Peace Agreement, January 9, 2005
  federalism and revenue-sharing (oil)
  representation and application of Sharia
• UN Mission in Sudan (7000 troops)but fighting
  has resumed
• Darfur (2003-present)

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Ethnic Makeup

• West Darfur, population 1.7 million
• Ethnically mixed
• Fur, Masalit, and Zaghawa--mostly sedentary
  cultivators--are majority
• but with other African and Arab minorities
• Including Arab pastoralists (camels and cattle)
• Note predominantly Muslim not a
  religious/sectarian conflic, unlike South
• Sustained drought and desertificantion increased
  competition for grazing rights and land,
  previously settled through traditional
  mechanisms
• But these mechanisms were weakened to
  disadvantage of local tribes under Nimieri
  government
• Common pattern of civil conflict center-local
  grievances

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Conflict History II

• Communal hostilities begin in 1998-99 triggered
  by early (ie. seasonal) movements of pastoralists
  and flocks from North Darfur
• February 2003, rebels Darfur Liberation Front,
  then Sudan Liberation Front/Army and Justice and
  Equality Movement attack government military
  installations
• Government of Sudan responds
• Used aerial bombardment campaigns in support of
  ground attacks on civilians by Sudanese army, but
  in conjunction with
• Organized Arab (Jingaweit or Janjaweed) militias
  which attack villages, steal food and cattle,
  rape women, force residents to flee, and then
  destroy villages

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Darfur

• During four crucial months--October 2003 to late
  February 2004--banned humanitarian assistance
• Therefore, not until mid-2004 with signing of
  preliminary humanitarian ceasefire does
  assistance begin in earnest
• and interrupted periodically to this day by
• Lack of cooperation from central government
• Attacks and harassment of aid workers, primarily
  by government forces but also rebels (12 killed
  and five missing in second half of 2006)
• Banditry and theft
• Ongoing conflict, including up to the present

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The Numbers

• Total conflict-affected in Darfur and Eastern
  Chad 4 million
• Internally-displaced 1.85 to 2 million
• Internally-displaced in camps
• Darfur 2 million
• Chad 235,000
• Excess deaths (all causes) 100,000-400,000,
  depending on time frame and method (GAO report)

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Elements of a Complex Emergency

• Logistics, logistics, logistics
• Food
• World Food Program organizing appeals and
  delivery trucking, including through partners
• US a major contributor
• Health establishing surveillance and early
  warning system and epidemiological bulletins
• Nutrition surveys and supplemental/therapeutic
  feeding centers acute malnutrition at 25
• Water and sanitation wells, handpumps, but also
  direct delivery
• Child protection and education (1,200 temporary
  schools)
• Non-food items (NFIs)
• Livelihood programs
• Agriculture and rehabilitation with returnees

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The Political-Military Dimension

• April 2004 ceasefire mediated by Chad Sudanese
  government and two rebel groups (Sudanese
  Liberation Army and Justice and Equality
  Movement)
• Establishes ceasefire commission with outside
  monitors
• But common pattern fight while negotiating
• African Union Mission in Sudan (AMIS)
• provide civilian protection, disarm Janjaweed,
  facilitate humanitarian assistance
• Supported by US, EU and Canada
• but overwhelmed by limited capacity (7000
  troops by May 2006) and recurrent government
  offensives (November 2004-January 2005)

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The Violence Escalates

• From August 2005, an escalation of violence
  against AMIS (African Union Mission in Sudan),
  humanitarian workers as well as civilians
• And the spread of the conflict to Chad
• While the political process of negotiations is
  stalled by
• Failure of clear vision of talks what is the
  goal for Darfur?
• Absence of outside pressure to conclude
• Division within rebel movements themselves, which
  are competing with one another, always prolonging
  conflict (Iraq)
• Dwindling resources for EU-AU effort

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Peace Accord

• May 2006. Peace agreement reached with one key
  faction of the SLM/A on
• Power sharing
• Wealth sharing
• Security, including both disarming of Janjaweed,
  monitored and verified by African Union Force
  (enhanced May 2005) and integration of rebels
  into Sudanese army and police
• But other factions and displaced people refuse
• Government resumes attacks
• Rejecting parties have regrouped--with support
  from Chad and Eritrea--into a new National
  Redemption Front
• and fighting has begun among factions, with the
  SLM/A now siding with the government

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A Complication the UN and the ICC

• The UN Commission of Inquiry appointed under UN
  Resolution 1564 (January 2005)
• Not genocide in international legal sense
  (although US during first Bush administration had
  said it was)
• but argues for referral to the International
  Criminal Court which the Security Council does
  (with US abstaining because of its general
  reservations about the Court)
• Sudan refuses, sets up its own courts to try war
  criminals internally but not surprisingly no
  trials for crimes since 2003
• But ICC names first two suspects, February 2007
  and the GOS vehemently rejects any jurisdiction
• cut the throat of any international officialwho
  tries to jail a Sudanese official in order to
  present him to the international justice.

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Current State of Play

• UNSC Resolution 1706 of August 2006 extends
  mandate of UNMIS
• UNMIS is currently at 10,000, resolution calls
  for up to 20,000 more
• AU force was threatened with expulsion in
  September, but AU extended its mandate in
  November
• A Hybrid UN-AU force still being built, with
  support from US but resistance from government of
  Sudan
• New peace accord May 2007, involving Chad and
  Saudia Arabia
• October 2007, more peace talks, more violence