Notes on National Product and Income Account

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Table 2 Cyclical Behavior of the US Economy Deviations from Trend of Expenditure Components, 1954I-1991II Table 2 Cyclical Behavior of the US Economy Deviations from Trend of Expenditure Components, 1954I-1991II Table 2 Cyclical Behavior of the US Economy Deviations from Trend of Expenditure Components, 1954I-1991II Table 2 Cyclical Behavior of the US Economy Deviations from Trend of Expenditure Components, 1954I-1991II Table 2 Cyclical Behavior of the US Economy Deviations from Trend of Expenditure Components, 1954I-1991II Table 2 Cyclical Behavior of the US Economy Deviations from Trend of Expenditure Components, 1954I-1991II Table 2 Cyclical Behavior of the US Economy Deviations from Trend of Expenditure Components, 1954I-1991II Table 2 Cyclical Behavior of the US Economy Deviations from Trend of Expenditure Components, 1954I-1991II Table 2 Cyclical Behavior of the US Economy Deviations from Trend of Expenditure Components, 1954I-1991II
Cross-Correlation of Output with Cross-Correlation of Output with Cross-Correlation of Output with Cross-Correlation of Output with Cross-Correlation of Output with Cross-Correlation of Output with Cross-Correlation of Output with Cross-Correlation of Output with Cross-Correlation of Output with
Variable SD X(-3) X(-2) X(-1) X X(1) X(2) X(3)
GDP 1.72 .38 .63 .85 1 .85 .63 .38
C 1.27 .57 .72 .82 .83 .67 .46 .22
I 8.24 .38 .59 .79 .91 .76 .50 .22
G 2.04 -.03 -.01 -.01 .04 .08 .11 .16
Exp 5.53 -.29 -.10 .15 .37 .50 .54 .54
Imp 4.88 .31 .45 .62 .72 .71 .52 .28
Data Source NIPA. All data are deflated and HP filtered Data Source NIPA. All data are deflated and HP filtered Data Source NIPA. All data are deflated and HP filtered Data Source NIPA. All data are deflated and HP filtered Data Source NIPA. All data are deflated and HP filtered Data Source NIPA. All data are deflated and HP filtered Data Source NIPA. All data are deflated and HP filtered Data Source NIPA. All data are deflated and HP filtered Data Source NIPA. All data are deflated and HP filtered
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Table 1 Cyclical Behavior of U.S. Labor Market Aggregates, 1954I-1991II Table 1 Cyclical Behavior of U.S. Labor Market Aggregates, 1954I-1991II Table 1 Cyclical Behavior of U.S. Labor Market Aggregates, 1954I-1991II Table 1 Cyclical Behavior of U.S. Labor Market Aggregates, 1954I-1991II Table 1 Cyclical Behavior of U.S. Labor Market Aggregates, 1954I-1991II Table 1 Cyclical Behavior of U.S. Labor Market Aggregates, 1954I-1991II Table 1 Cyclical Behavior of U.S. Labor Market Aggregates, 1954I-1991II Table 1 Cyclical Behavior of U.S. Labor Market Aggregates, 1954I-1991II Table 1 Cyclical Behavior of U.S. Labor Market Aggregates, 1954I-1991II Table 1 Cyclical Behavior of U.S. Labor Market Aggregates, 1954I-1991II Table 1 Cyclical Behavior of U.S. Labor Market Aggregates, 1954I-1991II Table 1 Cyclical Behavior of U.S. Labor Market Aggregates, 1954I-1991II Table 1 Cyclical Behavior of U.S. Labor Market Aggregates, 1954I-1991II
Cross-Correlation of Real GDP with Cross-Correlation of Real GDP with Cross-Correlation of Real GDP with Cross-Correlation of Real GDP with Cross-Correlation of Real GDP with Cross-Correlation of Real GDP with Cross-Correlation of Real GDP with Cross-Correlation of Real GDP with Cross-Correlation of Real GDP with Cross-Correlation of Real GDP with Cross-Correlation of Real GDP with Cross-Correlation of Real GDP with
Variable Volatility (SD) X(-5) X(-4) X(-3) X(-2) X(-1) X X(1) X(2) X(3) X(4) X(5)
Real Gross Domestic Product 1.72 -.02 .16 .38 .63 .85 .85 .63 .38 .16 -.02
Hours (Household Survey) 1.49 -.10 .05 .25 .46 .70 .86 .85 .74 .58 .38 .17
Employment 1.09 -.17 -.03 .16 .38 .63 .83 .88 .80 .65 .46 .25
Hours per Worker 0.54 .07 .20 .36 .49 .64 .70 .58 .42 .28 .12 -.02
GDP/Hours 0.87 .12 .23 .33 .47 .50 .51 .22 -.01 -.24 -.32 -.34
Average Hourly Real Compensation (Business Sector) 0.93 .35 .39 .41 .43 .41 .35 .25 .16 .05 -0.7 -.18
Real Employee Compensation (NIPA)/Hours (Household Survey) 0.65 -.11 -.11 -.13 .06 .02 .10 .13 .14 .10 .08 .04
Cross-Correlation of Cross-Correlation of Cross-Correlation of Cross-Correlation of Cross-Correlation of Cross-Correlation of Cross-Correlation of Cross-Correlation of Cross-Correlation of Cross-Correlation of Cross-Correlation of Cross-Correlation of
Employment and Average Labor Productivity (X) 1.09 .73 .68 .57 .35 .09 -.15 -.32
Vacancies and Unemployment (X) 12.54 -.36 -.61 -.82 -.95 -.93 -.77 -.54
GNP and Labor Share (X) 1.07 -.61 -.73 -.78 -.74 -.48 -.22 -.00
Source Finn E. Kydland (1995), () Source M. Merz (1995) using CITIBASE data for the period 1959I-1988II, () Average Labor Productivity is defined as Real GNP over Employment Source Finn E. Kydland (1995), () Source M. Merz (1995) using CITIBASE data for the period 1959I-1988II, () Average Labor Productivity is defined as Real GNP over Employment Source Finn E. Kydland (1995), () Source M. Merz (1995) using CITIBASE data for the period 1959I-1988II, () Average Labor Productivity is defined as Real GNP over Employment Source Finn E. Kydland (1995), () Source M. Merz (1995) using CITIBASE data for the period 1959I-1988II, () Average Labor Productivity is defined as Real GNP over Employment Source Finn E. Kydland (1995), () Source M. Merz (1995) using CITIBASE data for the period 1959I-1988II, () Average Labor Productivity is defined as Real GNP over Employment Source Finn E. Kydland (1995), () Source M. Merz (1995) using CITIBASE data for the period 1959I-1988II, () Average Labor Productivity is defined as Real GNP over Employment Source Finn E. Kydland (1995), () Source M. Merz (1995) using CITIBASE data for the period 1959I-1988II, () Average Labor Productivity is defined as Real GNP over Employment Source Finn E. Kydland (1995), () Source M. Merz (1995) using CITIBASE data for the period 1959I-1988II, () Average Labor Productivity is defined as Real GNP over Employment Source Finn E. Kydland (1995), () Source M. Merz (1995) using CITIBASE data for the period 1959I-1988II, () Average Labor Productivity is defined as Real GNP over Employment Source Finn E. Kydland (1995), () Source M. Merz (1995) using CITIBASE data for the period 1959I-1988II, () Average Labor Productivity is defined as Real GNP over Employment Source Finn E. Kydland (1995), () Source M. Merz (1995) using CITIBASE data for the period 1959I-1988II, () Average Labor Productivity is defined as Real GNP over Employment Source Finn E. Kydland (1995), () Source M. Merz (1995) using CITIBASE data for the period 1959I-1988II, () Average Labor Productivity is defined as Real GNP over Employment Source Finn E. Kydland (1995), () Source M. Merz (1995) using CITIBASE data for the period 1959I-1988II, () Average Labor Productivity is defined as Real GNP over Employment
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The Stylized Facts about the Business Cycle

• Output
• fluctuations in GDP are persistent
• Expenditure
• consumption is procyclical and less volatile than
  GDP
• investment is procyclical and 5 times as volatile
  as GDP
• government expenditures are acyclical
• Productivity
• the average output per hour of work is somewhat
  procyclical and leads the cycle

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The Stylized Facts about the Business Cycle

• Labor Markets
• employment volatility accounts for 2/3 of the
  volatility of total hours
• hours-per-worker volatility accounts for 1/3 of
  the volatility of total hours
• employment is procyclical lags the cycle
• hors-per-worker are procyclical and lead the
  cycle
• total hours are procyclical and almost as
  volatile as GDP

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References

• Chapters 2 and 3 in Williamson
• Check-out the website of the National Bureau of
  Economic Research http//www.nber.org
• Check-out the book "Frontier of Business Cycle
  Research," ed. T. Cooley, 1995, Princeton
  University Press