CARIBBEAN SEA ECOSYSTEM ASSESSMENT CARSEA Project Summary

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CARIBBEAN SEA ECOSYSTEM ASSESSMENTCARSEAProje
ct Summary

• Angela Cropper
• The Cropper Foundation

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• CARIBBEAN SEA STATES AND THEIR CLAIMED
  EEZs
• many actors with overlapping interests in and
  outside the region impact on this LME
• Intended audience of CARSEA Inter-governmental
  bodies and regional decision makers

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Time information

• 1. Condition and Trend Assessment
• 1. Fish production 1950-2000
• 2. Amenity (Tourism) 1990-2003
• 3. Biodiversity (Coral Reefs) 1977-2002 4.
  Desalinated water 1992-2000
• 5. Climate regulation (Cyclones) 1900-2000
• 2. Scenarios 2004-2050

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Provisioning Services
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St Lucia
Barbados
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Fisheries jobs, income and fish protein

• 504,913 jobs
• US1.6 billion in exports
• 7 of total protein consumption in Caribbean

Will Caribbean fisheries collapse? If they do
what are the likely effects on human wellbeing?
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Desalinated Water

• 667,053 m3/d from 15 Caribbean countries
• 3 of world total desalinated water
• US 317 million in sales revenue generated
• What is the cost-benefit of investment in
  desalination technology compared with investment
  in watershed management?

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Amenity value service
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Tourism jobs and income

• Direct impact
• 567,870 jobs
• US 6.5 contribution to GDP
• Indirect impact
• 1,857,000 jobs (12 of total employment)
• US 23.1 billion contribution to GDP (13 of total
  GDP (1 in the world relative to size)
• How can the Caribbean capture more of the
  resource rents locally without the negative
  effects of mass tourism?

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Biodiversity service Long-term region-wide
declines in Caribbean coral cover
What are the consequences of the decline in
Caribbean coral cover for human wellbeing?
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Caribbean Scuba Dive Tourism

• Caribbean attracts 57 of world scuba dive tours
• Most Scuba Dive tours in the Caribbean have
  shifted to the Netherland Antilles due to better
  coral reef health as a consequence of the
  establishment of MPAs

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Selected Trends Tropical Cyclone activity in
the Caribbean 1901-2000
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Trans-Atlantic Sahara dust clouds May 11th 2003
as recorded by the TOMs satellite
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Population living within 100 km of coast
(1995)
Insular Caribbean 99.9 Central
America 41.5 South America 48.7
After CIESIN, Columbia University
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CARSEA SCENARIOS

• Approach used to develop story-lines for the
  Caribbean Sea (CARSEA)
• Part I Stakeholder involvement (conducted
  separately in small breakout groups)
• Assess the current knowledge and current state of
  the system
• List key historical eras, key actors, external
  forces affecting the region, and ecosystem
  services.
• Identify a focal issue or issues
• List hopes and fears for the future to determine
  focal questions that might drive scenario
  development
• Identify alternative trajectories and branch
  points
• Identify key sources and threats to the
  resilience of the region (ability to adapt to
  coming surprises). We developed focal questions
  for Caribbean marine ecosystems based on What is
  the biggest concern for the region in the future?
  What are the factors that do or can make this
  region more able to cope with whatever the future
  brings?
• Build scenarios
• Ask breakout groups to come up with a set of
  storylines, based on the focal questions and
  considering the major eras and vulnerabilities of
  the region. They were asked to do this in 1 hour
  to create a sense of urgency. Each group was then
  asked to present their set of scenarios to the
  entire group in a Plenary.

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• Part II Refine and test the scenarios (conducted
  by a single small focus group)
• 5. Assess the scenarios
• Are there certain themes emerging? Can we come
  up with a set of 4 or so that seem to make sense
  together? What are the critical contrasts among
  the scenarios? What are the recurring themes? Are
  the trends/events plausible? What trends/events
  are useful for illustrating key themes or
  concepts? Does the set address the focal
  question.
• 6. Shocks and surprises Come up with a list of
  shocks and surprises that might happen and ask
  how the world would respond under each of the
  scenarios.
• 7. Use this analysis to refine a final set of
  scenarios.
• We discussed the major drivers in the region and
  constructed the stories around them packaged as
  clusters of issues. In the final analysis we
  choose from the large set of possible scenarios,
  those that addressed the focal questions whether
  they fell neatly into the quadrants or not. We
  also discussed the key tipping points that might
  change the direction of any storyline. These
  tipping points included a regional governance
  framework, fisheries collapse etc.

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Four Scenarios for Caribbean Sea

• Neo-Plantation economy
• Exploitation, short-term gain vs long-term costs
• Quality over Quantity
• know your own limits, Niche tourism
• Diversify Together
• Regional Cooperation and diversification
• Growing Asymmetries
• Selective permeability, FTAA

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Exploring uncertainty-Focal questions

• What governance mechanisms for the Caribbean Sea
  can be used to reduce economic, social and
  environmental vulnerability of the region
• How can economic activity be organized and
  managed so that natural resource benefits are
  distributed equitably relative to the costs?
• Will current trends in the decline of Caribbean
  Sea coastal and marine ecosystems exceed
  ecological thresholds that may result in
  significant consequences for human well-being?

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CARSEA Scenario Storylines
Quality Over Quantity
Neo-Plantation Economy
Focus Niche

Growing Asymmetries

Focus Free Trade Area
Focus Regional Cooperation
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- an investment led boom 2007-2017- sow the
seeds of a subsequent bust in 2040
Tourism in the Neo-Plantation Economy
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Growing Asymmetries
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• Major Findings
• Only the Quality over Quantity Scenario benefits
  ecosystems through its explicit policies and
  institutions to address the environment,
  otherwise there will be high negative impacts on
  ecosystems.

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Relationship between MA Global Scenarios and
CARSEA Regional Scenarios