China

1
Chinas One Child PolicyInadvertent
Demographic ConsequencesBig Time

• Nicholas Eberstadt
• Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy
• American Enterprise Institute
• eberstadt_at_aei.org
• Testimony before the Lantos Commission on Human
  Rights
• U.S. House of Representatives
• November 10, 2009

2
What are the Unintended Adverse Consequences of
Coercive Anti-natal Population Policy in China?

• 1) Unnatural Imbalances Between Males and
  Females, Today and Tomorrow With Unpredictable
  Consequences
• 2) Coming Pressures on Manpower Availability and
  Labor Force Composition The End of The Current
  Chinese Growth Formula
• 3) Acceleration of Chinas Already-Rapid Pace of
  Population AgingAnd Minimal Guarantees For
  Chinas Impoverished Elderly
• 4) Speeding Radical Transformation of Chinas
  Family Structure Destination Unknown

3
What are the Unintended Adverse Consequences of
Coercive Anti-natal Population Policy in China?

• 1) Unnatural Imbalances Between Males and Females

4
The Rise and Rise Of Gender Imbalance in
ChinaSex Ratio of Births and Sex Ratio of the
Population Age 0-4 China, 1953-2005 (boys per
100 girls)
Year of Census or Survey Sex Ratio of Births Sex Ratio of the Population Age 0-4
1953 -- 107.0
1964 -- 105.7
1982 108.5 107.1
1990 111.4 110.2
1995 115.6 118.4
1999 117.0 119.5
2005 118.9 122.7
Source Lavely, William. First Impressions of the
2000 Census of China. Available electronically at
http//csde.washington.edu/pubs/wps/01-13.pdf,
accessed 10/15/02. Unpublished data, Chinese
Academy of Social Sciences, Institute for
Population and Labor Economics, 2008.
5
Where Are The Girls?Chinas Sex Ratio at Birth
by Province, 2005 (boys per 100 girls)
Source 2005 China One Percent Population Survey.
6
Leave Nothing To ChanceAfter The First
BirthSex Ratio at Birth by ParityChina, 1990,
2000, and 2005 Censuses (boys per 100 girls)
Source Judith Banister, Shortage of Girls in
China Today Causes, Consequences, International
Comparisons, and Solutions, 2003. Shuzho Li,
Imbalanced Sex Ratios at Birth and Comprehensive
Intervention in China, (Conference Paper, Fourth
Asia Pacific Conference on Reproductive and
Sexual Health and Rights, United Nations
Population Fund, Hyderabad, India, October 29-31,
2007).
7
Will Affluence Cure Chinas Girl Shortage?Sex
Ratio vs. GDP per Capita China, 1953-2005 (boys
per 100 girls)
Sources Lavely, William. First Impressions of
the 2000 Census of China, Available
electronically at http//csde.washington.edu/pubs
/wps/01-13.pdf (accessed October 15, 2002). 2005
China One Percent Population Survey. Angus
Maddison, Per Capita GDP, Historical Statistics
for the World Economy 1-2003 AD, table 3,
http//www.ggdc.net/maddison/ (accessed July 31,
2008).
8
Will Education Cure Chinas Girl Shortage?Sex
Ratio at Birth vs. Adult Female Illiteracy Rate
by Province China, 2005
Source 2005 China One Percent Population Survey.
9
Dimensions of Chinas Coming Bride
ShortageEstimated And Projected Sex Ratio Ages
20-39 And Absolute Surplus of Males Ages
20-39China, 2000-2030
Source Population Division of the Department of
Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations
Secretariat, World Population Prospects The 2006
Revision and World Urbanization Prospects The
2005 Revision, http//esa.un.org/unpp,
Friday, June 29, 2007 medium variant
projections.
10
An Example of a Current Bride ShortageSex
Ratios in Germany, Ages 18-34 (2004)
Source Steffen Kröhnert and Reiner Klingholz,
Not am Mann Von Helden der Arbeit zur neuem
Unterschicht? Berlin-Institut, May 2007,
http//www.berlin-institut.org/studien/not_am_mann
.html (accessed December 12, 2007).
11
An Example of Current Correlates of Bride
ShortageVoting for Extreme Right Parties in
Germany (2005)
Source Steffen Kröhnert and Reiner Klingholz,
Not am Mann Von Helden der Arbeit zur neuem
Unterschicht? Berlin-Institut, May 2007,
http//www.berlin-institut.org/studien/not_am_mann
.html (accessed December 12, 2007).
12
What are the Unintended Adverse Consequences of
Coercive Anti-natal Population Policy in China?

• 2) Mounting Pressures on Manpower Availability
• and Labor Composition

13
No Repeat Performances..Adult Population 15
by Age Group China, 1970-2030 (estimated and
projected, thousands)
Source Population Division of the Department of
Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations
Secretariat, World Population Prospects The 2008
Revision, http//esa.un.org/unpp, Wednesday, May
13, 2009 21234 PM. Note medium variant
projections
14
Wanted Young Trained TalentPopulation 15-24
China, 1970-2030(estimated and projected)
Source Population Division of the Department of
Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations
Secretariat, World Population Prospects The 2006
Revision and World Urbanization Prospects The
2005 Revision, http//esa.un.org/unpp, Tuesday,
May 08, 2007 84622 AM.
15
What are the Unintended Adverse Consequences of
Coercive Anti-natal Population Policy in China?

• 3) Accelerating Chinas Population Aging
• Rapid Graying Ahead for a Still-Poor Society

16
Beijing Forgot About This Population
ExplosionEstimated and Projected Population
Aged 65China, 1980-2030
Source Population Division of the Department of
Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations
Secretariat, World Population Prospects The 2008
Revision, http//esa.un.org/unpp, Wednesday, May
13, 2009 21234 PM. Note medium variant
projections
17
Its Better To Be Old And RichPercent of
population 65 vs. Per capita GDP (PPP) China
and Selected Other Countries, 1950-2005
Source Population Division of the Department of
Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations
Secretariat, World Population Prospects The 2006
Revision and World Urbanization Prospects The
2005 Revision, http//esa.un.org/unpp, Monday,
January 26, 2009 33149 PM Angus Maddison,
Per Capita GDP PPP (in 1990 Geary-Khamis
dollars), Historical Statistics for the World
Economy 1-2006 AD, table 3, http//www.ggdc.net/
maddison/ (accessed January 27, 2009). Taiwan
Population Statistical Yearbook of the Republic
of China (Taiwan), Table 10. Age-specific
distribution of population, dependency
ratio,index of aging and median age, available
at http//eng.dgbas.gov.tw/lp.asp?CtNode2351CtUn
it1072BaseDSD36.
18
The Shape of Things To Come In Chinas
ProvincesProjected Population Structure,
2025Japan (un-shaded) vs. Heilongjiang
Province, China (shaded)
Male
Female
Source U.S. Census Bureau, International Data
Base, http//www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbagg
(accessed July 31, 2008), And U.S. Census Bureau,
International Programs Center, unpublished
projections.
19
Quick, What Makes US Social Security Look Like
Fort Knox?Coverage and Actuarial Balances of
Current Public Pension System USA, Japan, China
(percent)
Coverage Net Present Value Unfunded /GDP
USA 2008 881 38
Japan 2001 c. 1002 60-703
China 2003 c.16 125-150
Notes 1. Proportion of fully insured persons
20 in OASDI, 2008. 2. Mandatory participation
of persons 20 in basic plan. 3. Estimates for
burden post-2000 round of reforms. Sources
China Loraine A. West and Daniel Goodkind,
Population Aging and Social Safety Nets in
China Factors and Trends Affecting Policy
Trade-Offs. U.S. Census Bureau, International
Programs Center, April 2003 (unpublished paper)
Japan Hamid Faruqee and Martin Muehleiser,
Population Aging in Japan Demographic and
Fiscal Sustainability, IMF Working Paper
WP/01/40, April 2001, http//www.imf.org/external/
pubs/ft/wp/2001/wp0140.pdf USA Derived from U.S.
Social Security Administration, Annual
Statistical Supplement 2008 (March 2009), Table
4.c5, http//www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/statcomps/sup
plement/2008/4c.html 2009 OASDI Trustees Report
(March 24, 2004), Table VI.F4 and Chapter II.D,
http//www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2009
20
Who Will Take Care of Grandma in China?
Percentage of Age-60 Chinese Women with No Born
Sons by Year of Her 60th Birthday Illustrative
Calculations
Notes Calculations are illustrative, based upon
simplifying assumptions 1. Reported parity
distributions in 1990 census are accurate 2.
SRB as in previous graphic 3. SRB not
parity-specific 4. Childbearing completed by
age 35 for the 2025 cohort of 60-year old women
5) Posits the following distribution of
childbearing for the 2025 cohort of 60-year-old
women no children, 3 one child, 25 two
children, 65 three or more children,
7. Sources Derived from Feeney et. al. 1993,
op cit China National Bureau of Statistics 2002,
op cit.
21
What are the Unintended Adverse Consequences of
Coercive Anti-natal Population Policy in China?

• 4) Speeding The Radical Transformation of Chinas
  Family Structure

22
2500 Years Of Family Tradition Comes To An
EndProportion of single children in China,
2011-2030Adult Population, ages 25-49 years (,
projected),
Year Urban Rural
2011 24.31 2.73
2015 32.43 4.90
2020 42.50 7.92
2025 53.48 12.25
2030 58.45 16.36
Source Guo Zhigang, Liu Jintang, Song Jian,
Birth policy and family structure in the
future, Chinese Journal of Population Science
2002(1) 1-11.
23
How Do You Say Necropolis in Chinese?Recent
(2000) vs. Projected (2040) Population Structure
of Beijing
Source Baochang Gu, Low Fertility in China
Trends, Policy, and Impact (Presentation paper,
Seminar on Fertility Transition in Asia
Opportunities and Challenges, United Nations,
Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the
Pacific, December 18-20, 2006),
http//www.unescap.org/esid/psis/meetings/Fertilit
yTransition/Gu-China20_SFTA10.pdf (accessed
April 17, 2008).