States of Concern

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States of Concern

• Predicting Foreign Policy Behavior

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Which states pose greater threats than others?

• Commonly used criteria
• Rogue states States that ignore international
  norms and international law
• Revisionist states States that seek to upset
  the status quo
• Failed states States that lack government
  authority due to collapse, extreme poverty or
  civil war

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I. Rogue States

• Characteristics
• Ignore international law
• Build weapons of mass destruction
• Sponsor terrorism
• Violate the human rights of their own people
• Which states meet these criteria?

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Rogue States The American View (1998)
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Compare 1998, 2002, 2005 speeches

• 1998 Rogue States -- Iran, Iraq, Libya (85 of
  mentions)
• Other mentions Sudan, North Korea, Serbia, Cuba
• 2002 Axis of Evil -- Iran, Iraq, North Korea
• Beyond the Axis of Evil Speech (2002) Libya,
  Syria, Cuba
• 2005 Outposts of Tyranny Cuba, Iran, North
  Korea, Belarus, Zimbabwe, Myanmar

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1. Who ignores international law?

• What is the only country which managed to violate
  the Chemical Weapons Convention, the
  Nonproliferation Treaty, and the Biological
  Weapons Convention all at the same time?
• North Korea, but
• Iran is probably trying

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1. Who ignores international law?

• What is the only state opposing an anytime
  anywhere inspection system under the Biological
  Weapons Convention, similar to the one that
  already exists under the Chemical Weapons
  Convention?
• United States

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1. Who ignores international law?

• Which two states have not ratified the most
  widely and rapidly ratified human rights treaty
  in history, the UN Convention on the Rights of
  the Child?
• Somalia and
• United States

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1. Who ignores international law?

• What is the only country which has failed to
  ratify at least one of the following treaties
  Chemical Weapons Convention, the Nonproliferation
  Treaty, and the Biological Weapons Convention?
• Israel

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2. Who has WMD?
Suspected Arsenals 9 Nuke, 5 Biological, 10
Chemical
?
?
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3. Who sponsors terrorism?

• Which state sponsored the following act?
• After a prominent dissident escapes the country
  and proceeds to criticize his government back
  home, that government sends a secret agent with
  an umbrella. The umbrella has a tiny poison
  capsule in its tip. The dissident is
  accidentally poked with the tip of the umbrella
  and dies the next day.
• Bulgaria (while still Communist)

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3. Who sponsors terrorism?

• Which state sponsored the following group?
• An Islamic fundamentalist group fighting a civil
  war has the nasty habit of tying down prisoners,
  pouring gunpowder on their eyeballs and setting
  it alight. However, when it isnt killing other
  groups in the civil war, it targets the military
  forces of a hated enemy. Its state sponsor gives
  it tons of weapons, including portable missiles
  for shooting down aircraft. It continues this
  aid even after the group targets a civilian
  airliner.
• United States (Gulbuddin Hekmatyar)

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3. Who sponsors terrorism?

• Which state sponsored the following group?
• This militia fought a vicious many-sided civil
  war, with tactics including car bombs that killed
  hundreds of civilians. Its sponsor provided it
  with weapons and intelligence. In fact, its
  sponsor established refugee camps for its
  opponents and allowed this group to enter the
  camps the militia then indiscriminately
  slaughtered everyone it could find. The
  government continued its sponsorship for years
  following these massacres, even after the end of
  the civil war.
• Israel (the Phalange militia in Lebanon)

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3. Who sponsors terrorism?

• Pakistan (Kashmiri insurgents)
• India (Tamil insurgents, Hindu fundamentalists)
• Iran (Hezbollah)
• Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, Eritrea
• DRC, Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi, Angola, Namibia,
  Congo Republic, etc.
• Lets just say Africa
• Wait a minute Central America too
• and Asia, North America, South America,
  Australia (!), and Europe
• Problem Just about everyone has provided some
  aid to terrorists / freedom fighters

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4. Which states violate human rights?

• Autocracies Repress dissent, rig elections,
  imprison or murder opponents, far more likely to
  commit democide
• Notable democracies
• Israel Assassinations, detention without trial,
  denial of voting rights, torture
• United States Execution of juveniles (until
  2005), secret and indefinite detention without
  trial, abuse of prisoners
• India Selective enforcement of law, support for
  fundamentalist mobs, torture
• Europe Migrants, Refugees, Ethnic minorities
• Japan Racial discrimination, Secret executions

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5. Conclusions

• Many states ignore international law, including
  prominent democracies such as the US
• Even more states sponsor terror in some form
• Similarly, most states violate human rights
  although mass killing is rare among democracies
• Only WMD narrows the field substantially and
  this field also includes prominent democracies
• Summary Rogue state is not a useful concept
  for predicting differences between states
  perhaps we need something else to predict
  state-level foreign policy behavior

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II. Are some states more aggressive?
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A. Power

• Great powers fight more but also cooperate more
  (foreign aid, support for IGOs, etc)
• Power cycle theory
• Relative power follows a cycle
• Certain points on the cycle create war risk
  (because they involve changes in expectations
  about the future)

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c. Evidence for Power Cycle Theory
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c. Evidence for Power Cycle Theory

• Some inflection points correspond to major wars

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c. Evidence for Power Cycle Theory

• Some inflection points correspond to major wars
• Prediction US, Japan, Russia near danger zones

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B. Regime Democracy makes a difference

• War initiation. Democracies
• May be slightly less likely to wage war in
  general
• Are less likely to initiate war
• Rarely fight other democracies
• Turn to covert means when overt means are
  unpopular
• Warfighting. Democracies at war
• Win battles and wars more frequently
• Suffer fewer casualties
• Undermine enemy morale by taking prisoners
• Are not notably better at extracting resources to
  fight wars

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3. War Termination. Democracies

• Are more likely to accept a draw once war is
  underway
• Are more likely to win short wars than long ones
• Reduce war involvement as casualties mount
• Punish leaders for wars even successful ones!

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C. Other state-level theories of war

• Status Inconsistency States demand respect
  (difficult to measure)
• Nationalism May lead to irredentist demands
  (anecdotal, counterexamples)
• Militarism Prepare for war ? war (requires
  dyadic analysis of arms races)

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D. Conclusions Which states are aggressive?

• Watch out for powerful countries at critical
  points
• Democracies start fewer wars but fight just as
  often as autocracies
• Evidence for status inconsistency, militarism and
  diversionary war is weak
• Intangibles like nationalism are difficult to
  measure and evaluate

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III. Using the Theories to Prioritize
Relationships

• Which relationships are most important?
• System level Beware rising challengers and
  declining hegemons
• Dyad level Beware mixed-regime dyads and
  contiguous rivals
• State level Beware great powers and autocracies

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A. Mapping Power

• Go ahead and indicate countries you think should
  be vital based on their power

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1. Population 2005
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1. Population 2050
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2. Economics GDP Per Capita
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2. Economics Hunger
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3. Military Spending
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3. Military WMD
?
?
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3. Military Spending as GDP
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4. Resources Oil
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B. Relations with the US

• Which countries should receive high priority due
  to relationships with America?

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1. Military Aid
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2. Bases and Troops
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3. Trade
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C. Flashpoints Current and Recent Wars
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Questions

• What criteria should determine Americas areas of
  interest?
• Which ten countries best meet those criteria?
• Should the US change its current foreign policy
  towards any or all of these ten?