Photovoltaic Solar Energy Futures

1
Photovoltaic Solar EnergyFutures

• Presented to the
• Minnesota Futurists
• 16 May 2009
• Dick Saunders and David Keenan

2
But first a word from our sponsor

• The Futurist Tool
• of the day
• Trend Analysis and Extrapolation

3
Trend Analysis Extrapolation

• A Method Everyone Uses
• Trend analysis involves the use of any of a
  variety of techniques based on historical data.
• Trend analysis involves several processes. One
  process is spotting an emerging trend, that is,
  identifying a change in the world around us.
• Now you need to do some analysis to see what the
  nature of the trend is and what its implications
  might be.
• You could first look at historical data

http//crab.rutgers.edu/goertzel/futuristmethods.
htm
4
Trend Analysis Extrapolation
5
Trend Analysis Extrapolation

• Trend analysis requires that you do more than
  simply extrapolate the trend forward.
• You have to ask, what is causing this trend, and
  will those causes continue indefinitely?
• Are there upper limits to the trend?
• What other forces may affect the trend?
• At this point trend analysis relies more on
  subjective judgment rather than objective
  extrapolation of historical data.
• Assuming that the future will be like the past or
  that past changes will continue in the same
  direction and rate is a perfectly sensible way to
  begin trying to understand the future.
• It can not, however, be the end of our endeavors,
  or we would end up with absurd results.

http//crab.rutgers.edu/goertzel/futuristmethods.
htm
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Trends to Analyze in This Talk

• Solar Cells
• Market size
• Market share
• Sales
• Units
• Power produced
• Cost per power delivered

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Agenda

• The Sun
• Solar Cells
• Background
• How they work
• Types
• Markets
• Costs
• Countries
• Companies
• Questions

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Now on with the show
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Energy from the Sun

• About half the incoming solar energy reaches the
  Earth's surface.
• The Earth receives 174 petawatts (PW) (1015
  watts) of incoming solar radiation at the upper
  atmosphere. Approximately 30 is reflected back
  to space while the rest is absorbed by clouds,
  oceans and land masses.
• Earth's land surface, oceans and atmosphere
  absorb solar radiation, and this raises their
  temperature. Sunlight absorbed by the oceans and
  land masses keeps the surface at an average
  temperature of 14 C.
• By photosynthesis green plants convert solar
  energy into chemical energy, which produces food,
  wood and the biomass from which fossil fuels are
  derived.

http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energy
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Breakdown of incoming solar energy
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FileBreakdown_of_the
_incoming_solar_energy.svg
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Energy from the Sun

• Yearly Solar fluxes Human Energy Consumption
• The total solar energy absorbed by Earth's
  atmosphere, oceans and land masses is
  approximately 3,850,000 exajoules (EJ) (1018
  joules) per year. (70 of incoming sunlight)
  
  (1 Joule energy required to
  heat one gram of dry, cool air by 1 C)
• Primary energy use (2005) 487 EJ (0.0126)
• Electricity (2005) 56.7 EJ (0.0015) Therefore
  a good target
• 2002, more energy in one hour than the world used
  in the year.
• Photosynthesis captures approximately 3,000 EJ
  per year in biomass.
• The amount of solar energy reaching the surface
  of the planet is so vast that in one year it is
  about twice as much as will ever be obtained from
  all of the Earth's non-renewable resources of
  coal, oil, natural gas, and mined uranium
  combined.
• As intermittent resources, solar and wind raise
  issues.

http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energy
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Solar Cells Background

• 1839 - French physicist A. E. Becquerel first
  recognized the photovoltaic effect.
• Photovoltaic convert light to electricity
• 1883 - first solar cell built, by Charles Fritts,
  coated semiconductor selenium with an extremely
  thin layer of gold to form the junctions.
• 1954 - Bell Laboratories, experimenting with
  semiconductors, accidentally found that silicon
  doped with certain impurities was very sensitive
  to light. Daryl Chapin, Calvin Fuller and Gerald
  Pearson, invented the first practical device for
  converting sunlight into useful electrical power.
  Resulted in the production of the first practical
  solar cells with a sunlight energy conversion
  efficiency of around 6.
• 1958 - First spacecraft to use solar panels was
  US satellite Vanguard 1

http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell
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PV Solar for Electricity

• Photovoltaics
• For the 2 billion people without access to
  electricity, it would be cheaper to install solar
  panels than to extend the electrical grid. (The
  Fund for Renewable Energy Everywhere)
• Providing power for villages in developing
  countries is a fast-growing market for
  photovoltaics. The United Nations estimates that
  more than 2 million villages worldwide are
  without electric power for water supply,
  refrigeration, lighting, and other basic needs,
  and the cost of extending the utility grids is
  prohibitive, 23,000 to 46,000 per kilometer in
  1988.
• A one kilowatt PV system each month
• prevents 150 lbs. of coal from being mined
• prevents 300 lbs. of CO2 from entering the
  atmosphere
• keeps 105 gallons of water from being consumed
• keeps NO and SO2 from being released into the
  environment
• in Colorado, or an equivalent system that
  produces 150 kWh per month

http//www.solarenergy.org/resources/energyfacts.h
tml
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How Solar Cells Work

• Photons in sunlight hit the
  
  solar panel and are absorbed
  
  by
  semiconducting materials,
  
  such as silicon.
• Electrons (negatively charged)
  
  are knocked
  loose from their
  
  atoms, allowing them to flow
  
  through the
  material to
  
  produce electricity.
• An array of solar cells
  
  converts solar energy
  into a
  
  usable amount of
  
  direct current (DC)
  electricity.

http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FileSilicon_Solar_ce
ll_structure_and_mechanism.svg
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Solar Cells Background

• Three generations of solar cells
• Solar Cells are classified into three generations
  which indicates the order of which each became
  important.
• At present there is concurrent research into all
  three generations while the first generation
  technologies are most highly represented in
  commercial production, accounting for 89.6 of
  2007 production.

http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell
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Solar Cells Background

• First Generation Single Junction Silicon Cells
• 89.6 of 2007 Production
• 45.2 Single Crystal Si
• 42.2 Multi-crystal SI
• Large-area, high quality and
  
  single junction devices.
• High energy and labor inputs which
  
  limit significant progress in reducing
  
  production costs.
• Single junction silicon devices are
  
  approaching theoretical limit efficiency
  
  of 33. Achieve cost parity with fossil
  fuel
  energy generation after a payback period
  
  of 57 years. (3.5 yr in Europe)
• Single crystal silicon - 16-19 efficiency
• Multi-crystal silicon - 14-15 efficiency

Silicon Cell Average Efficiency
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell and
www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sept 08
17
Solar Cells Background

• Second Generation Thin Film Cells
• CdTe 4.7 CIGS 0.5 of 2007 Production
• New materials and processes to improve efficiency
  and reduce cost.
• As manufacturing techniques evolve, production
  costs will be dominated by constituent material
  requirements, whether this be a silicon
  substrate, or glass cover. Thin film cells use
  about 1 of the expensive semiconductors compared
  to First Generation cells.
• The most successful second generation materials
  have been cadmium telluride (CdTe), copper indium
  gallium selenide (CIGS), amorphous silicon and
  micromorphous silicon.
• Trend toward second gen., but commercialization
  has proven difficult.
• 2007 - First Solar produced 200 MW of CdTe solar
  cells, 5th largest producer in 2007 and the
  first to reach top 10 from of second generation
  technologies alone.
• 2007 - Wurth Solar commercialized its CIGS
  technology producing 15 MW.
• 2007 - Nanosolar commercialized its CIGS
  technology in 2007 with a production .
  capacity of 430 MW for 2008 in the USA and
  Germany.
• 2008 - Honda began to commercialize their CIGS
  base solar panel.
• CdTe 8 11 efficiency (18 demonstrated)
• CIGS 7-11 efficiency (20 demonstrated)
• Payback time lt 1 year in Europe

http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell and
www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sept 08
18
Solar Cells Background

• Third Generation Multi-junction Cells
• Third generation technologies aim to enhance poor
  electrical performance of second generation
  (thin-film technologies) while maintaining very
  low production costs.
• Current research is targeting conversion
  efficiencies of 30-60 while retaining low cost
  materials and manufacturing techniques. They can
  exceed the theoretical solar conversion
  efficiency limit for a single energy threshold
  material, 31 under 1 sun illumination and 40.8
  under the maximal artificial concentration of
  sunlight (46,200 suns).
• Approaches to achieving these high efficiencies
  including the use of multijunction photovoltaic
  cells, concentration of the incident spectrum,
  the use of thermal generation by UV light to
  enhance voltage or carrier collection, or the use
  of the infrared spectrum for night-time
  operation.
• Typically use fresnel lens (3M) or other
  concentrators, but cannot use diffuse sunlight
  and require sun tracking hardware
• Multi-junction cells 30 efficiency (40-43
  demonstrated)

http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell and
www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sept 08
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Global Cumulative PV Power
http//www.epia.org/fileadmin/EPIA_docs/publicatio
ns/epia/Global_Market_Outlook_Until_2013.pdf
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Global Annual PV Market
http//www.epia.org/fileadmin/EPIA_docs/publicatio
ns/epia/Global_Market_Outlook_Until_2013.pdf
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Solar Cell Market Estimate
-- First Generation -- -- Second
Generation -- - Third Gen -
SEMI PV Group March 2009 from source Yole
Development
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Global Annual PV Market Outlook
http//www.epia.org/fileadmin/EPIA_docs/publicatio
ns/epia/Global_Market_Outlook_Until_2013.pdf
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Solar PV Market Outlook
by 2030 8.9 of Global Energy, 1,864 GW
Production Capacity, 2,646 TWh Electricity
SEMI PV Group March 2009 from source EPIA Solar
Generation V Sept 08 www.epia.org
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Cost Projections
/kWh
Grid parity where PV cost are equal to
residential electricity costs is expected to be
achieved first in southern European countries and
then to move north
1.35
1.07
0.81
0.54
0.27
0.13 ---
www.epia.org EPIA Solar Generation V Report Sept
08
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Cumulative installed solar electric power by 2007

• 1st Germany 3.8 GW
• 2nd Japan 1.9 GW
• 3rd US 814 MW
• 4th Spain 632 MW

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World's largest photovoltaic (PV) power plants
(12 MW or larger)
1
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_power_st
ations
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Large systems in planning or under construction
Under construction Proposed
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_power_st
ations
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Spain

• Blessed with almost year-round sunshine, Spain's
  socialist government is trying to capitalize on
  this natural resource.
• In an effort to encourage private individuals and
  companies to install solar power, Spain
  introduced subsidies of 0.42 per kilowatt per
  hour (0.57/KWhr) (feed-in tariff and off-grid
  subsidies)
• But the Spanish government is considering
  reducing this subsidy in September, a move which
  is likely to face opposition from within the
  solar energy industry.
• 2007 26,800 employees in Spanish solar companies

http//www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jul/09/
solarpower.renewableenergy 9 July 2008
www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep 2008
29
Olmedilla Solar Park
60 MWp photovoltaic park installed by Nobesol
with modules from Silikin
http//www.siliken.com/clientes_proyectos/instalac
iones/ficha?contentId572
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Germany

• 10,000 companies, including installers work in
  solar PV
• 80 companies are cell and module makers
• 42,000 employees
• Sales were 5.7 B including 2.5 B in exports
• The feed-in tariff
• 2008 German utilities pay 0.47 to 0.68/kWh
  depending on type and size of system for new
  solar systems
• Utilities pass cost to consumers Germany
  average is 1.65/month

www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep 2008
31
Waldpolenz Solar Park

• The Waldpolenz Solar Park is built on a surface
  area equivalent to 200 soccer fields, the solar
  park will be capable of feeding 40 megawatts into
  the power grid when fully operational in 2009.
• In the start-up phase, the 130-million-euro (201
  million) plant it will have a capacity of 24
  megawatts, according to the Juwi group, which
  operates the installation.
•  
• The facility, located east of Leipzig, uses
  state-of-the-art, thin-film technology. Some
  550,000 thin-film modules will be used, of which
  350,000 have already been installed. The direct
  current produced in the PV solar modules will be
  converted into alternating current and fed
  completely into the power grid.
• After just a year the solar power station will
  have produced the energy needed to build it,
  according to the Juwi group.

http//www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3430319,0
0.html
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Waldpolenz Solar Park
http//www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3430319,0
0.html
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Waldpolenz Solar Park
http//lumbergusa.com/main/Bild/sp_pv_07/Brandis-W
aldpolenz-Fotomont.jpg
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United States

• 2007 - PV production grew in all areas of US
  market
• US leads development of thin-film technology
  accounting for nearly half the global production
• 2007 about 50,000 employees
• CA dominates with 60 of installed capacity
• Various state Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)
  and Federal Investment Tax Credits (ITC) are
  incentives.
• Solar America Initiative making progress on goal
  to bring PV costs to grid parity by 2015

www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep 2008
35
Renewable Energy Consumption in the US Energy
Supply, 2007
http//www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page
/trends/highlight1.html
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Chart Data
http//www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page
/trends/figure1_1.xls
37
US Solar Industry Data
Solar energy represents less than 1 of the U.S.
energy mix. However, as a result of growing
awareness about reliable, off-the-shelf
technology, concerns about rising costs, energy
security and supplies, and new state and federal
incentives, deployment of solar energy has
exploded since 2005.

• Size of U.S. Market2008 - U.S. had about 8,800
  megawatts (MW) of installed solar capacity.
• 1,100 MW of photovoltaics (PV),
• 418 MW of utility-scale concentrating
  solar power,
• 485 MWTh (megawatts thermal equivalent) of
  solar water heating systems
• 7,000 MWTh of solar pool heating systems.
• Ranking of U.S. Market Cumulative installed
  solar electric power by 2007. 1st Germany
  3.8 GW, 2nd Japan 1.9 GW, 3rd US 814 MW, 4th
  Spain 632 MW
• Growth of U.S. Market 2008 - more than 18,000
  individual PV systems were installed. Totaled 342
  MW 292 MW was grid-connected.
• Growth of U.S. Manufacturing 2008 domestic PV
  cell manufacturing capacity grew 65 percent to
  685 MW and production grew 53 percent to 414 MW.
  (Results preliminary) (Source Greentech Media
  Research and the Prometheus Institute)

www.seia.org/cs/about_solar_energy/industry_data
and www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep
2008
38
Nellis AFB Solar panels
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FileNellis_AFB_Solar
_panels.jpg
39
GM installs world's biggest rooftop solar
panels

• The largest rooftop solar power station in the
  world is being built in Spain. With a capacity of
  12 MW of power, the station is made up of 85,000
  lightweight panels covering an area of two
  million SqFt.
• Manufactured in rolls, rather like carpet, the
  photovoltaic panels are to be installed on the
  roof of a General Motors car factory in Zaragoza,
  Spain.
• General Motors, which plans to install solar
  panels at another 11 plants across Europe,
  unveiled the 50M (68M) project yesterday. The
  power station should be producing energy by
  September.
• The panels will produce an expected annual output
  of 15.1 million kilowatt hours (kWh) - enough to
  meet the needs of 4,600 households with an
  average consumption of 3,300kWh, or power a third
  of the GM factory. The solar energy produced
  should cut CO2 emissions by 6,700 tons a year.
• Energy Conversion Devices who makes the panels,
  said it would be the largest rooftop solar array
  in the world.

http//www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jul/09/
solarpower.renewableenergy 9 July 2008
40
GM installs world's biggest rooftop solar
panels
http//www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jul/09/
solarpower.renewableenergy 9 July 2008
41
Japan

• 2002 - Basic Act on Energy Policy to secure
  stable energy supply, environmental suitability
  and use of market mechanisms
• By 2006, installed 1.2 GW for 350,000 homes
• 2008 New research initiative to improve yields
  from 10-15 to 40 and reduce cost from 0.48/kWh
  to 0.073/kWh

www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep 2008
42
China

• 2007
• National Renewable Energy targets
• 10 by 2010 (300 MW)
• 15 by 2020 (1.8 GW)
• Supplies 1,130 tons of polysilicon from 6
  companies
• Supplies 21,400 tons of silicon ingot from 70
  companies
• Number 1 PV panel producer 1.1 GW
• 50 PV panel companies including Suntech, Yingli,
  Hebei Jingao, Jiansu Linyang, and Nangjing CEEG
• 82,800 employees (6 times that of 2005)

www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep 2008
43
Top 10 PV Cell Producers
Until recently BP Solar was dominant
supplier. New Top 10 produce 53
of world total Q-Cells, SolarWorld -
Germany Sharp, Kyocera, Sharp, Sanyo
Japan Suntech, Yingli, JA Solar China Motech
- Taiwan
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BP Solar

• BP Solar to supply PV power systems for Wal-Mart
  in CA 22 April 2009
• Under a power purchase agreement (PPA), BP will
  finance, install and maintain the systems and
  Wal-Mart will have immediate access to clean
  electricity with no up front capital cost to the
  retailer.
• Will initially build 10 to 20 rooftop systems at
  Wal-Mart locations in California, and would work
  with the retailer to evaluate the potential for
  additional projects. Expects to complete the
  first set, 10 MW of installed solar power, within
  about 18 months.
• 2008 BP completed 4.1 MW solar systems for 7
  Wal-Marts Sams Clubs in CA.
• Since 1998, BP guarantees its modules for 25
  years.
• BP Solar, part of BP Alternative Energy, is a
  global company with about 2000 employees. With
  over 35 years of experience and installations in
  most countries, BP Solar is one of the world's
  leading solar companies.
• BP is one of the worlds largest energy
  companies, in more than 100 countries and over
  96,000 employees.

http//www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle.do?categor
yId9025044contentId7046577
45
BP axes 620 jobs from solar business

• 01 April, 2009 - BP to axe 620 jobs from its
  solar power business more than a quarter of
  that workforce in a move it said was part of
  the long-term strategy to "reduce the cost of
  solar power to that of conventional electricity.
• Two cell manufacture and module assembly plants
  near Madrid, will be shut with the loss of 480
  posts while module assembly will also be phased
  out at its Frederick facility in Maryland, US,
  with a further 140 redundancies.
• BP blamed the cutbacks on the credit crunch and
  lower-cost competition saying its global
  manufacturing capacity would still increase
  during this year and next via a series of
  strategic alliances with other companies.

http//www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/apr/01/
bp-solar
46
Q Cells SE

• 1999 founded, 2001 began with the production of
  silicon solar cells with 19 employees.
• By 2009, 2,600 employees (2007, 1700 employees)
• Now the largest solar cell manufacturer in the
  world. (since 2007)
• Continue to expand production in
  Bitterfeld-Wolfen, Germany and start
  construction of new Malaysian production
  facility.
• Alongside the monocrystalline and polycrystalline
  (90 of business) core business, we use a wide
  range of technologies to develop and produce
  thin-film modules. (thin-film - 25 share of
  smaller market)
• 2008 Sales 1.69 B 2007 Sales 1.16 B
  profitable
• QCE Frankfurt exchange

http//www.q-cells.com/en and http//www.google.co
m/finance?qFRA3AQCE
47
Sharp Solar

• Subsidiary of Sharp Electronics, Osaka, Japan
• Produces silicon solar cells and thin film,
  leveraging silicon knowledge from LCD
  manufacturing
• 2008, capacity will reach 1.6 million square
  meters of thin-film modules, as we simultaneously
  build the world's largest thin film manufacturing
  complex, capable of 10 million square meters per
  year. And this gigawatt-scale factory is only the
  first to come. Katsuga City, Nara and Sakai City,
  Osaka, Japan
• Thin film efficiency 9, expecting 10 from GW
  factory line.
• Sharp powers more homes and businesses than any
  other solar mfg in the world. First mfgr to
  reach 2 GW cumulative production since mass
  production start in 1963
• Memphis, TN 100 MW manufacturing facility

http//solar.sharpusa.com/solar/solar_thin_film/1,
,3-6,00.html and http//www.sharpusa.com/files/sol
_dow_ThinFilm_101408.pdf
48
SunTech Power

• BEIJING, Jan 12, 2009 (Xinhua via COMTEX)
• Chinas solar product maker SunTech Power
  Holdings Co., Ltd. (STP.NYSE) recently laid off
  800 workers or 10 percent of its total employees
  and postponed its previous plan on recruiting
  2,000 people, said Shi Zhengrong, chairman and
  CEO.
• SunTech delayed plan to expand production
  capacity to 1.5 GW in 2009, which requires 2,000
  more employees.
• Plants in Wuxi and other areas are in normal
  operation with more than 50 capacity running,
  compared with 85 prior to financial meltdown.
• SunTech has received more than 800 MW of orders
  in 2009 including 650 MW from Europe. 2008
  overall orders of 500 MW.

http//www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock20N
ews/2119252/
49
SunTech Power

• Sales 1.9B 2008, 1.3B 2007 profitable
• Employees 6784
• STPNYSE
• Wuxi, China
• Worlds largest silicon cell maker
• Average conversion efficiency rates of their
  monocrystalline and multicrystalline silicon PV
  cells 16.4 and 14.9 respectively
• 10 May 2009 announces plan to build manufacturing
  plant in US, now shopping states for incentives

http//www.google.com/finance?qNYSESTP
50
Kyocera Solar

• US Solar Division Scottsdale, AZ
• Subsidiary of Kyocera, Kyoto, Japan (KYONYSE)
  13B 2008
• 2008 broke ground for new plant in Tianjin City,
  China to expand there from 60 MW to 240 MW by
  2011. First one in China 03
• 2012 total production capacity to be 650 MW from
  Japan, Mexico, the Czech Republic and Tianjin.
• Technology built on knowledge of fine ceramics,
  with metals, plastics, and electronics developed
  for copiers and printers

http//www.kyocerasolar.com/about/
51
First Solar

• TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 24, 2009--
  First Solar, Inc. (Nasdaq FSLR) today announced
  it reduced its manufacturing cost for solar
  modules in the fourth quarter to 98 cents per
  watt, breaking the 1 per watt price barrier.
• 2004 Began full commercial operation.
  Manufacturing capacity has grown to more than 500
  MW in 2008 and will double in 2009 to more than 1
  GW, the equivalent of an average-sized nuclear
  power plant.
• Escalating volumes accompanied by a rapid
  reduction in manufacturing costs. Manufacturing
  costs have declined from over 3 per watt to less
  than 1 per watt. Further significant cost
  reductions are possible.
• First Solar has industrys first and only
  comprehensive pre-funded, end-of-life module
  collection and recycling program, recycling more
  than 90 of each collected module into new
  products. (A serious issue due to
  Cadmium-Telluride)
• High throughput, automated lines that integrate
  each production step, from CdTe semiconductor
  deposition to final assembly and test, in one
  continuous process. This advanced manufacturing
  process transforms a piece of glass into a
  complete solar module in less than 2.5 hours.

www.firstsolar.com/
52
First Solar

• Sales 1.2B 2008, 504M 2007, profitable
• Employees 3524
• Tempe, AZ
• FSLRNASDAQ

finance.google.com
53
Motech Industries

• Modern Technology for a Sustainable World
• Founded 1981, Motech Solar started 1997
• 2003 Publicly trades 6244 Taiwan Exchange
• 2008 8th largest manufacturer 272 MW crystalline
  and multi-crystal silicon solar cells
• Plants in Tianan,Taiwan and Kunshan, China
• 2008 Sales 691M, profitable
• 1,331 employees

www.motech.com.tw
54
Shell dumps wind, solar and hydro power in favor
of biofuels

• Shell will no longer invest in renewable
  technologies such as wind, solar and hydro power
  because they are not economic, the Anglo-Dutch
  oil company said today. 17 Mar 09
• Sold US operations to SolarWorld - Germany

http//www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/mar/17/roy
aldutchshell-energy
55
SolarWorld AG

• SWV Frankfurt exchange
• 1,825 employees
• Bonn, Germany with production in Freiborg and
  Sweden
• 2006 acquired assets from Shell Solar which had
  been largest US solar products maker (fka Arco
  Solar and Siemens Solar)
• Camarillo, CA and Vancouver, WA
• 2007 acquired Komatsu silicon wafer production
  facility Hillsboro, OR
• Single and multi-crystalline silicon cells

http//www.google.com/finance?qFRASWV
56
Sun Power

• Founded 1985, purchased by Cypress Semiconductor
  in 2004, spun out in 2008. SPWRA and SPWRB NASDAQ
• HQs in San Jose and Geneva, Switzerland
• 12 polysilicon solar cell line in Philippines
  with capacity 314 MW/yr
• Expansion plan for 1 GW capacity by 2010
• High efficiency cells 21-23
• PGE plans 250 MW facility in CA by 2012
• FPL DeSoto Cty 35 MW facility due to open 2009
• Nellis 14 MW facility on line
• Sales 1.4B for 2008, 775M for 2007 profitable
• Employees 5,400

http//us.sunpowercorp.com/utility/
57
SunPower Solar Cell
http//us.sunpowercorp.com/utility/why-sunpower/be
st-technology/
58
Energy Conversion Devices / United Solar
Ovonics

• ENERNASDAQ
• Rochester Hills, MI
• Amorphous silicon thin film process on stainless
  steel
• Over 20 years, manufacturing capacity increased
  from 500 KW to 25 MW/yr
• Now 3 miles/day
• Sales 255M for 2008, 114M for 2007, slight
  profit 2008
• Employees 1090

http//www.uni-solar.com
59
Ovonics Roll-roll Process
http//www.uni-solar.com/uploadedFiles/Uni-SolarTe
chnologyandManufacturingProcessAppendix.pdf
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Silikin

• Since 2001, SILIKEN has obtained a significant
  share on the Spanish PV market and has installed
  more than 160 MW of solar PV energy, 240 GWh,
  the electricity consumption of more than 63,595
  homes.
• Number of employees Currently 700
  people.Valencia, Tenerife and Albacete, Spain
  and San Diego, CA
• Sales 152 million (207 million) in 2007.
• Peak power manufactured has become one of the
  main manufacturers of PV modules, supplying 92 MW
  to the market in 08.

http//www.siliken.com/quienes/historia?languageId
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Some Questions

• Will peak minerals (rising cost due to limits
  in availability) limit growth of thin film and
  third generation solar cells?
• Will demand growth in China and India limit
  growth in US?
• How about the impact of other national / regional
  subsidies?
• How will financial meltdown impact solar cell
  business?
• What competing technologies would upset the solar
  industry?
• How will cost and efficiency of 2nd and 3rd
  generation solar cells impact the businesses
  built on 1st generation technology?