Overview of NIP Research Project

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Overview of NIP Research Project

• 1. Effectively use RS data in species
  distribution modeling and decision support
• Partition locality data and environmental layers
• Modeling Andean bird species distributions
• Conservation planning
• 2. Simulate the impacts of climate change on
  species distributions
• 3. Evaluate hypotheses explaining variability in
  species richness
• Correlates mammal richness across spatial scale
• Effects of disease on amphibian richness pattern
• 4. Train ecologists, evolutionary biologists and
  conservation biologists to use species
  distribution models with RS data

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Conservation in the Colombian Andes

• Catherine Graham Jorge Velasquez

Department of Ecology Evolution Stony Brook
University, NY
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Colombian Andes
9-11 land protected Opportunistic and expert
criteria site selection
1800 bird species 220 endemic species
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Andean Biodiversity
Natureserve range maps of Grallaria species in
Colombia
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Questions

• How well do current protected areas conserve
  avian diversity?
• What additional areas are required to conserve
  current diversity?
• To what extent might the parks of today be the
  parks of tomorrow?

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Data compilation

• Species all endemic (218) and threatened birds
  (86)
• Sources Project Biomap (89 museums), DataAves,
  ProAves, literature, personal observations and
  communications
• Georeferencing IGAC, Paynter Taylor (1992),
  NIMA database, RS imagery

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Distribution modeling
Point localities
Environmental layers (1 km2) Bioclimatic layers
Vegetation (RS) variables Topographic
variables Bioregions
MAXENT (Phillips et al. 2006)
Prediction of Species Distribution
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Species distribution model
Semnornis ramphastinus
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• Models published on Google Picasa webpage
• Got feedback from 18 ornithologists from Colombia
• 550 comments incl. 254 new localities for 102
  species

http//picasaweb.google.com/jivelasquezt/ModelosDe
DistribucionDeAvesDeColombiaV1
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Importance of different types of variables in
models
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Geographic patterns
threatened
endemics
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Set representation targets
After Rodrigues et al. 2002
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Current Gap Analysis
Protected Areas
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New Areas

• Coastal ecosystems and lowlands of SNSM
• Junction of Magdalena and Cauca rivers
• Darien
• Cordillera Occidental
• Southwest of Nariño
• Nechí watershed
• Cordillera Central
• West slope of Cordillera oriental

Planning unit size 5 km2
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What sites require urgent protection?
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Distribution Modeling for Future Prediction
Point localities
Environmental layers (1 km2) 15 Bioclimatic
layers Cut by Bioregions
Future climate layers
Present climate layers
Current
HadCM3 model 2050
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Range shift in Grallaria alleni.
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Range sizes decrease
Increase
Decrease
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Range Overlap (current ? future) is 45
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Many species are predicated to move to higher
elevations
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Predicted similarity of species composition
(Jaccard) across time varies
Green more similar Purple less similar
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Potential possible extinctions
15 spp.
9 spp.
1 spp.
1 spp.
2 spp.
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Different climate change models provide different
results
Total possible extinctions
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Representation in protected areas will decrease
Protected
Partial Gaps
Gaps
Percent target achieved by current protected
areas Representation target 2000 km2
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Conclusions

• 27 and 20 species are predicted to become extinct
  in HadCM3 models A2 and B2. However, other models
  predict as little as 3 extinctions.
• Species more vulnerable to extinction due to
  climate change in Colombia are the ones with
  marginal ranges or endemic to isolated mountains
• Number of conservation gaps will increase in the
  future and some non-gap species will become
  partial gaps.

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Future Directions

• Evaluate conservation priorities now and in the
  future (projected climate/remote-sensing land
  use change).
• Assess variation in environment experienced by
  individual species currently to better
  parameterize models
• Use demographic modeling to better predict
  species persistence
• Continued integrated training

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Acknowledgments

• NASA NIP
• UCLA team (Tom Smith, Sassan Saatchi, Wolfgang
  Buermann, Bob Wayne, etc.)
• Project BioMap - particularly Conservation
  International and Darwin Initiative and the 89
  museums visited
• ProAves (Colombian NGO) DataAves (database of
  avian observations)
• Special thanks to all collectors, museums,
  birdwatchers that contributed directly or
  indirectly to make this research possible