Regional sustainability AnthBiolEconNRM 694

1
Regional sustainabilityAnth/Biol/Econ/NRM 694

• Terry Chapin
• Craig Gerlach
• Josh Greenberg
• Scot Rupp
• TA Nikke Tozzi

2
Class schedule

• Tuesday, Thursday
• 200-330
• 138A Irving II

3
Course Goals

• Develop basic principles of sustainability
• Discuss application of these principles to 6
  issues (Forestry, global change, etc.)
• Apply these principles to high latitudes through
  development of plans
• Fairbanks
• Alaska
• Circumpolar North

4
Course structure

• First 5 sessions
• 4 classes on disciplinary roots of sustainability
• General discussion on the integration of these
  disciplinary perspectives
• Next 12 weeks
• Two weeks for each of 6 topics
• Team of 2 instructors plus 2-3 students will
  design the course structure for each topic
• An important goal is to consider applicability to
  sustainability plans at different scales

5
Student Evaluation

• Class participation 30
• Essential to make the class work
• Reading annotations 30
• Preparation of a sustainability bibliography
• Sustainability plans 40
• Major product of the class

6
Readings

• Keep number of readings feasible
• Identify reasons for reading
• Annotation assignments on readings
• Develop annotated bibliography
• Need class feedback on how to make readings as
  useful as possible

7
Issues to be addressed

• Major sustainability issues
• Sustainable forestry
• Sustainable agriculture
• Socio-ecological Integration Cities to
  wilderness
• Sustainable fisheries
• Global change
• System collapse and reorganization
• Class approach Student teams participate in
  teaching

8
Development of Sustainability Plans

• Local Scale
• North Star Borough Plan
• Regional Scale
• UAF responsible for developing plan for
  sustainable development
• Circumpolar Scale
• Polar Chapter of Millennium Assessment

9
Resilience Alliance

• http//www.resalliance.org

10
Mechanisms and processes of resilience vs. goals

• Some sustainability goals
• Equality or fairness
• Freedom from poverty
• Some properties of most natural systems
• High infant mortality
• Resources dominated by a few individuals
• Repeated episodes of massive mortality

11
First assignment

• Find two definitions of sustainability or
  resilience (and create your own definition of one
  of these terms)
• Send these definitions to Nikke with the
  literature citation by Jan. 28
• Background for discussion on Jan. 30

12
Sustainability Baggage

• It has NOT played a strong role in ecological
  theory
• Often equated with equilibrium concepts
• We now recognize that most ecosystems are not in
  equilibrium with current conditions
• Product of past history
• Always responding to past events over multiple
  time scales
• But have certain attributes that persist

13
Context of sustainability

• Concept has emerged in the context of ecological
  management at the ecosystem scale
• Maintenance of ecological goods and services that
  are valued by society
• Goods e.g., food, fiber, water
• Services e.g. water purification, flood control,
  aesthetics
• It has always been used in an interdisciplinary
  context

14
Chapin et al. 2002
15
Gunderson and Holling 2002
16
Gunderson and Holling 2002
17
Chapin et al. 2002
18
What makes ecosystems resilient to change?

• Negative feedbacks tend to maintain ecosystems in
  current state
• Thermostat on a furnace
• Positive feedbacks tend to push ecosystems toward
  some new state
• Nuclear reaction
• Ice-albedo feedback (high-latitude warming)

19
Ecosystems are complex mixtures of positive and
negative feedbacks
Chapin et al. 2002
20
Limitations to this approach??
21
Limitations to this approach??

• Short-term perspective (years to decades)
• Ignores surprises
• Ignores multiple stable states

22
Chapin et al. in press
23
Gunderson and Holling 2002
24
Gunderson and Holling 2002
25
Hypothesis

• Factors that enhance the short-term
  (years-to-decades) sustainability of systems
  reduce their long-term resilience

26
Hypothesis

• Factors that enhance the short-term
  (years-to-decades) sustainability of systems
  reduce their long-term resilience
• Implication There may be a tradeoff between
  sustainability and resilience

27
Hypothesis

• Factors that enhance the short-term
  (years-to-decades) sustainability of systems
  reduce their long-term resilience
• Implication There may be a tradeoff between
  sustainability and resilience
• Hypothesis based on induction
• If true, is there a general mechanism

28
Gunderson and Holling 2002
29
What is scientific basis of adaptive cycle?

• Inductive rather than deductive
• Based on complex system theory
• Unclear whether metaphor or mechanism

30
Successional changes in boreal forest after fire
31
Temporal and spatial scales matter 1. Rapid,
small-scale processes provide mechanism of
larger-scale processes 2. Slow, large-scale
processes are constants that provide context
for faster, smaller-scale processes
Chapin et al. 2002
32
Gunderson and Holling 2002
33
Gunderson and Holling 2002
34
Surprises are inevitable

• What properties of systems enable them to
  accommodate surprises that we cannot foresee?

35
Recipe for resilience???
36
Recipe for resilience???

• Maintain social, institutional, and ecological
  diversity
• Maintain controls over slow variables
• Expect interactions across temporal and spatial
  scales
• Expect thresholds and non-linear responses to
  changes in drivers
• Opportunities for innovation (learning)

37
Gunderson and Holling 2002
38
Clearing for agriculture in W. Australia altered
climate 30 less ppt over farmlands 10 more
ppt over heathlands Why?
Photo S. Chambers
39
Land clearing changes energy balance Higher
albedo (less energy absorbed) More ET from
irrigation (cools surface) Less sensible heat
(less convective uplift
Chapin et al. 2002
40
What enhances regional sustainability?

• Processes that enhance negative feedbacks and
  minimize likelihood of runaway positive feedbacks
• Look for surprises
• Processes that operate at regional scales over
  decades to centuries
• Scales often overlooked by management