PREDICATE

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PREDICATE
Mechanisms and Predictability of Decadal
Fluctuations in Atlantic-European Climate
An RD project funded by the European Union
under Framework 5
Rowan Sutton Centre for Global Atmospheric
Modelling University of Reading
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Decadal Variability of the North Atlantic
Oscillation
PREDICATE
Thanks to Martin Visbeck Heidi Cullen
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Economic Impacts of Climate Variability
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Climate Risk and Strategic Planning

• Much of the work on climate change scenarios has
  focused
• on timescales of 50-100 years.
• But for many businesses the longest timescales
  considered
• in strategic planning are much shorter 1-30
  years.
• There is thus a clear need for the best possible
  information
• about potential climate scenarios, and their
  relative
• probabilities, for these decadal time
  horizons.
• This is the need that the PREDICATE project is
  addressing

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Uncertainty on decadal timescales in current
climate forecasts
Northern European temperatures
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The Causes of Decadal Climate Variations

• Changing external forcings, e.g.
• Rising levels of greenhouse gases
• Variations in solar output
• Internal variability of the climate system
• In the atmosphere alone
• In the atmosphere-ocean system
• In other components of the climate system,
• e.g. the biosphere.

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PREDICATE Objectives

• To assess the predictability of decadal
  fluctuations in Atlantic-European
• To improve understanding and simulation of
  mechanisms via which ocean-atmosphere
  interactions cause decadal climate fluctuations
• To improve the European capability for
  forecasting decadal fluctuations in
  Atlantic-European climate by developing
  forecasting systems
• To work with targeted user groups to assess the
  potential benefits from future decadal forecasts

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PREDICATE Partners
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Partners

1. CGAM - Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling,
   Reading, UK
2. UKMO - The Met. Office, Bracknell, UK
3. MPI - Max-Planck Institut fur Meteorologie,
   Hamburg, Germany
4. LODYC - Laboratoire dOceanographie Dynamique et
   de Climatologie, Paris, France
5. NRSC - Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing
   Research Centre, Bergen, Norway
6. ING - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica, Bologna,
   Italy
7. DMI - Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut,
   Copenhagen, Denmark
8. CERFACS - European Centre for Research and
   Advanced Training in Scientific Computation,
   Toulouse, France

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Work Packages
WP1 Mechanisms and predictability of decadal
fluctuations in the atmosphere WP2 Mechanisms of
decadal fluctuations in the Atlantic ocean WP3
Decadal climate predictability and
prediction WP4 Interaction with user community