ICT research for Climate Change

1
Climate Change The science
UNDP-GEF CBA Workshop June 30 2009
Michael A. Taylor Climate Studies Group,
Mona Department of Physics University of the West
Indies, Mona
2
QUIZ 1
Context

• Weather, climate, climate variability, climate
  change all these terms are sometimes confusing.
• A. Yes
• B. No
• C. Not really, but remind me anyway about
  them.

Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
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Weather and Climate

• Weather
• Day to day (short term) changes in meteorological
  parameters rainfall, temperatures, pressure,
  etc.
• Often perceived in terms of extreme events heat
  waves, downpours, cold spells .
• Climate
• Commonly defined as the average weather. Mean
  and variability of weather over a periods of time
  ranging from months to thousand/millions of
  years.
• That concerning the status of the entire Earth
  system, (atmosphere, land, oceans, snow, ice and
  living things) which serve as the global
  background condition for determining weather
  patterns (IPCC 2007)

Context
Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
4
Variability and Change
Context
Regular
Long Term
Why Change?
Trendy
Irregular
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
5
Variability and Change
Context

• In any climate timeseries multiple timescales of
  variation exist.
• Climate Variability - Regular, Irregular, Long
  Term
• Timescales that are short term seasonal,
  annual, interannual (every few years), even
  decadal. ENSO, AMO, PDV
• Good harbinger for climate change impacts.
• Climate Change Trendy
• Distinct changes in measures of climate lasting
  for a long period of time e.g. major changes in
  temperature, rainfall, snow, or wind patterns
  lasting for decades or longer.
• Variability and Change and Weather Extremes
  interrelated.
• Will examine climate change.

Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
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QUIZ 2
Context

• Possible contributors to Climate Change include
• A. Changes in the earths orbit
• B. Volcanic eruptions
• C. Burning of fossil fuels
• D. All of the above

Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
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Climate can change due to...
Context
Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
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Greenhouse gases?
Context
Purpose Glass house to keep plants warm during
winter.
Why Change?
How Change?

• How works?
• Suns rays hit the glass
• Some rays immediately reflected
• Some pass through glass and reach plants. Inside
  gets hot.
• Heat cannot escape due to glass.
• Glass very important!!!

More Change?
We Change?
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Greenhouse gases?
Atmosphere around earth is like the glass!!!
Context
Why Change?

• How works?
• Solar radiation hits atmosphere
• 30 reflected. 70 reaches the earth
• Earth warms and gives off heat.
• Certain gases in atmosphere prevent most of heat
  escaping. E.g. CO2, methane, H2O, ozone, nitrous
  oxide
• Called greenhouse gases!!!

How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
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Greenhouse gases?
Context
Greenhouse effect is not a bad thing warm
(habitable) earth!! Problem Since the Industrial
Revolution humans have added a significant amount
of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere by burning
fossil fuels, cutting down forests and other
activities.
Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
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Greenhouse gases?
Context
Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
CO2 A 36 Increase from pre-industrial times.
Almost all of the increase is due to human
activities (IPCC, 2007) .
CH4 Now 148 above pre-industrial levels. (IPCC,
2007) .
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Greenhouse gases?
Context
Radiative Forcing How the energy balance of the
earth-atmosphere system is altered by factors
that affect climate.
Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
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Greenhouse gases?
UNDP_GEF CBA
Context
Why Change?
How Change?
IPCC (2007) It is extremely unlikely (lt5) that
the global pattern of warming during the past
half century can be explained without external
forcing, and very unlikely that it is due to
known natural external causes alone.
More Change?
We Change?
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QUIZ 3
Context

• Which of the following changes has been observed
  in the last century
• A. Warmer temperatures
• B. More rain
• C. Less rain
• D. All of the above
• E. None of the above

Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
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Global Warming
Context
Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
Global warming is an average increase in
temperatures near the Earths surface and in the
lowest layer of the atmosphere.
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Global Warming
Context
Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
IPCC Global warming is unequivocal! There is a
greater than 90 percent chance that most of the
warming we have experienced since the 1950s is
due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions
from human activities.
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Temperatures
Context

• Global mean surface temperatures continue to
  rise.
• Earth is 0.75 degrees warmer than in 1860.
• 11 of the last 12 years rank among the 12
  warmest years on record since 1850.
• 7 of 8 warmest years on record have occurred
  since 2001.
• In last 30 years, the rate of warming across the
  globe has been approximately 3 x greater than the
  rate over the last 100 years.

Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
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Temperatures
Context
Why Change?

• The warming trend is seen in both daily maximum
  (day time) and minimum (night time) temperatures.
• Minimum temperatures increasing at a faster rate
  than maximum temperatures.
• Land areas have tended to warm faster than ocean
  areas.
• Winter months have warmed faster than summer
  months.

How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
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Sea Level Rise
Context

• Primary factors driving current sea level rise
  include
• the expansion of ocean water caused by warmer
  ocean temperatures
• melting of mountain glaciers and small ice caps
• (to a lesser extent) melting of the Greenland Ice
  Sheet and the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
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Sea Level Rise
Context

• IPCC (2007)
• Most of the Pacific and Atlantic basins are
  experiencing average to above-average sea level
  rise.
• the rate of observed sea level rise increased
  from the mid 19th to the mid 20th century. During
  the 20th century, sea level rose at an average
  rate of  4.8 to 8.8 inches per century (1.2-2.2
  mm/year)
• Satellite measurements estimate that sea level
  has been rising at a rate of 9 to 15 inches per
  century (2.4-3.8 mm/yr) since 1993.

Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
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Rainfall
Context
Rainfall patterns changing.

• IPCC (2007)
• Significant changes in amount, intensity,
  frequency and type of precipitation.
• Trends vary widely by region and over time.
• Precipitation strongly modulated by variability
  e.g. ENSO.
• Globally there has been no statistically
  significant overall trend in precipitation over
  the past century.

Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
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Rainfall
Context
Rainfall patterns changing.

• IPCC (2007)
• Precipitation has generally increased over land
  north of 30N from 1900-2005, but has mostly
  declined over the tropics since the 1970s.
• Wetter in eastern North and South America,
  northern Europe and northern and central Asia,
  but drier in the Sahel, southern Africa, the
  Mediterranean and southern Asia.
• More precipitation now falls as rain rather than
  snow in northern regions.

Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
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Rainfall
Context
Proportion of heavy rainfall is increasing over
many land areas
Why Change?

• IPCC (2007)
• There has been an increase in the number of heavy
  precipitation events over many areas during the
  past century, as well as an increase since the
  1970s in the prevalence of droughts especially
  in the tropics and subtropics.
• The long-term record emphasizes that patterns of
  precipitation vary from year to year, and even
  prolonged multi-year droughts are usually
  punctuated by a year of heavy rains for instance
  as El Niño influences are felt.

How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
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Extreme Events
Context

• IPCC (2007)
• Since 1950, the number of heat waves has
  increased and widespread increases have occurred
  in the numbers of warm nights.
• The extent of regions affected by droughts has
  increased as precipitation over land has
  marginally decreased .
• Generally, numbers of heavy daily precipitation
  events that lead to flooding have increased, but
  not everywhere.
• In the extratropics, variations in tracks and
  intensity of storms reflect variations in major
  features of the atmospheric circulation, such as
  the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?

• Tropical storm and hurricane frequencies vary
  considerably from year to year, but evidence
  suggests substantial increases in intensity and
  duration since the 1970s.

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Caribbean Example
Context
Why Change?

• Study done at UWI and NCDC
• Tmax, Tmin, rainfall station data. 1950-2000
• Looking if climate extremes have changed in
  Caribbean in recent history.

How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
Peterson, T. C., M. A. Taylor, et al., 2002
Recent changes in climate extremes in the
Caribbean region, J. Geophys. Res., 107(D21)
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Caribbean Example
Context
Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?

• Frequency of cool days and nights decreasing

• Frequency of Hot days and hot nights increasing
  (nights gt days)

• Trendlines significant at 1 level
• Frequency of cool days and nights decreasing
• True for rest of world.

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QUIZ 4
Context

• A climate model is
• A. A tool to help us determine future
  climates
• B. A person hired by IBM to show their
  product
• C. A person hired by Mac to show their
  product

Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
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Climate Models
Context

• COMPUTER MODELS
• A set of physics based equations to describe
  processes of atmosphere.
• Prescribed boundary and initial conditions.
• Start with real time and simulate into future
  (most times to end of century).
• Can produce projections of rainfall, temperature,
  wind, pressure, cloud cover, humidity and a suite
  of other variables for a day, month, or a year in
  the future.

Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
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Climate Models
Context

• Regional Climate Models (RCMs)
• Use outputs from GCM as boundary conditions
• Horizontal resolution 25-50 km
• Small islands can be resolved.

• General Circulation Models (GCMs)
• Horizontal resolution 250-600 km
• 10-20 vertical layers in the atmosphere
• As many as 30 ocean layers

Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
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Emission Scenarios
Context
Why Change?
How Change?

• To generate projections with the climate models
  we have to make up stories about how the world
  will evolve in the future.
• SCENARIOS STORYLINES

More Change?
We Change?
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Emission Scenarios
Context

• Most common IPCC Special Report of Emissions
  Scenarios (SRES)
• Storylines depend on what population growth,
  energy use, economic development and technology
  could look like in the future.
• A and B families are created to represent
  different storylines with similar attributes.
• Storylines give us estimate of future greenhouse
  gas concentrations.

Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
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Emission Scenarios
Context

• B1 (Low Emissions)
• Population peaks mid-century and declines
  thereafter
• Rapid change towards a service and information
  economy
• Introduction of clean and efficient technologies

• A2 (High Emissions)
• Continuously increasing population
• Regionally oriented economic development
• Technological change more fragmented

Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?

• A1B (Intermediate Emissions)
• Global population peaks in mid-century and
  declines thereafter
• Rapid economic growth
• Balance across fossil and non-fossil energy
  sources

None involves the stabilization of concentrations
of greenhouse gases!!
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Projections
Context
Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
Models Scenarios Future Climate
Projection A potential future evolution of a
quantity or set of quantities. Not the same as a
Prediction since projections involve some
assumptions about the future and are therefore
open to a great deal of uncertainty.
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Temperatures
Context
Why Change?
How Change?
Emission Scenarios
More Change?
We Change?
Commitment No increase in greenhouse gas
concentrations from 2000
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Temperatures
Context
Why Change?
Near-term warming projections are little affected
by different scenario assumptions. By 2030 change
lies in narrow range of 0.64C to 0.69C .
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
End of century Commitment 0.6
degrees Best-Worst 1.5 5 degrees
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Temperatures
Context
Why Change?
Geographic patterns show greatest temperature
increases at high northern latitudes and over
land, with less warming over the southern oceans
and North Atlantic.
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
Global mean surface temperatures End of century
(A18 medium emissions scenario)
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Rainfall
Context
Regional changes (/-) of up to 20 in average
rainfall Generally, robust large-scale patterns
precipitation generally increases in the tropical
precipitation maxima, decreases in the subtropics
and increases at high latitudes as a consequence
of a general intensification of the global
hydrological cycle.
Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
But Model projections for extremes of
precipitation show larger ranges in amplitude and
geographical locations than for temperature.
The response of some major modes of climate
variability such as ENSO differs from model to
model.
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Sea Level Rise
Context

• Sea level will continue to rise in the 21st
  century because of thermal expansion and loss of
  land ice.
• Sea level rise was not geographically uniform in
  the past and will not be in the future.

Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?

• Projected warming due to emission of greenhouse
  gases during the 21st century will continue to
  contribute to sea level rise for many centuries.
• Sea level rise due to thermal expansion and loss
  of mass from ice sheets would continue for
  centuries even if radiative forcing were to be
  stabilised.

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Extremes

• Type, frequency and intensity of extreme events
  are expected to change as Earths climate
  changes.
• Changes could occur even with relatively small
  mean climate changes.
• Changes in some types of extreme events have
  already been observed .

Context
Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
Other Heat waves become more frequent and longer
lasting in a future warmer climate. Increased
summer dryness and winter wetness in most parts
of the northern middle and high
latitudes Precipitation tends concentrated into
more intense events, with longer periods of dry
in between . Evidence from modelling studies
that future tropical cyclones could become more
severe, with greater wind speeds and more intense
precipitation.
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Caribbean Example
Context
Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
End of century temperature change (PRECIS RCM)

• Irrespective of scenario Caribbean expected to
  warm
• Warming between 1and 5 degrees.
• Warming greater under A2 scenario
• Warming consistent with projections for other
  parts of the globe

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Caribbean Example
Context
Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
End of century rainfall change (PRECIS RCM)

• For both scenarios Caribbean is in general drier.
• Up to 30 drier.
• Drying more severe under A2 scenario
• Far north Caribbean however could be wetter

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QUIZ 5
Context

• In light of all this, should we be concerned?
• A. Yes
• B. Absolutely yes
• C. Yeah Man!
• D. This is a rhetorical question, right?

Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
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Confidence
Context

• In light of everything, should we change how we
  operate?
• Perhaps depends on how confident we are about
  the projected changes.
• Confidence in the models comes from the
  following
• Model fundamentals are based on established
  physical laws, such as conservation of mass,
  energy and momentum, along with a wealth of
  observations.
• Models ably simulate important aspects of the
  current climate. Reasonable skill in
  representing important features of the general
  circulation across shorter time scales, and
  aspects of seasonal and interannual variability.
• Models ably reproduce features of past climates
  and climate changes.
• Over several decades models have consistently
  provided a robust and unambiguous picture of
  significant climate warming in response to
  increasing greenhouse gases.

Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
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Confidence
Context
So Though models still show significant errors
(mainly due to important small-scale processes
not being represented explicitly in models) there
is considerable confidence that they are able to
provide credible quantitative estimates of future
climate change, particularly at larger scales.
Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
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Impact will be widely Felt...
Context
Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
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Caribbean example
Context
Dengue
Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
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Caribbean example
Context
Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
Hot ? Wet ? Dengue
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Caribbean example
Context
Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
Linkage to El NiñoDue to rainfall and
temperature changes
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Caribbean example
Context
Why Change?
Estimated that a future 2 degree rise in
temperature will cause an increase in incidence
of dengue in the Caribbean region.
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
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Summary
Context
Why the Change? Greenhouse gas forcing has very
likely caused most of the observed global
warming over the last 50 years. How has the
Change been manifested to date? Global mean
surface temperatures continue to rise. Eleven of
the last 12 years rank among the 12 warmest
years on record since 1850. Other changes in
precipitation patterns, sea levels and extreme
events have also been observed. Will there be
More Change in the future? Even if
concentrations of radiative forcing agents were
to be stabilised, further committed warming and
related climate changes would be expected to
occur.
Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
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Summary
Context
Should We Change our mode of operating? We
live in a climate sensitive world. This makes us
vulnerable to climate variability and change. It
would be foolish to continue to operate as
normal. We must begin to consider appropriate
actions to enable quality lifestyles in the
future.
Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
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QUIZ 6
Context

• Is this the end of this talk?
• A. Yes
• B. Yes
• C. Yes
• D. No, lets start it all again

Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
We Change?
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END
Context

Why Change?
How Change?
More Change?
Thank You
We Change?