Technologiniai pokyciai ir energetikos perspektyva

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Technologiniai pokyciai ir energetikos
perspektyva

• Valentinas Snitka

Rinka ar politika Lietuvos energetikoje,
Vilnius,lapkricio 28, 2005
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Solving the Energy Problems
Im going to talk not about today EnergyThe
time horizon, Im talking, may be 10-20-30 years
but, We need to take to start
immediately to effectively address the problem.
We simply need to change our way of thinking
that is the first step.  Our thinking have to
respond to reality, if not, we will face danger
tomorrow.
International Security Security of Energy
Supplies, Vilnius July 26, 2005
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Content

• Introduction the essence of the moment
• Complexity, Innovation Clusters and Global
  networks
• Fifth Shumpeter wave
• Disruptive technologies - nanotechnology
• From fossil fuel economy towards distributed
  power (World Without Wires)
• Distributed systems more stable, more secure

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Strategija priemoniu visuma tikslams pasiekti
Priemones turi atspindeti objektyvia realybe
Taigi pasauli turim suvokti toki koks jis yra,
bet ne toki kurio modelis musu galvoje dar nuo
vakar
Problema koks tas pasaulis iandien, rytoj ?
LIETUVOS (musu, galimybes) GALIMYBES???
KUR CIA TECHNOLOGIJOS ? ENERGETIKA ?
KOKIOS? Tik gamybines ? AR IR SOCIALINES?
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MOMENTO ESME !!!
GYVENAME PEREJIMO LAIKOTARPI
I mechanistinio i organini pasauli NUO naftos
perdirbimo i paskirstytos energijos tinklus
PASAULIO NERAMUMAI (IR GAMTINIAI) TAI TIK
PATVIRTINA !!!
Formuojasi nauja pasaulio tvarka, ekonomika,
energetika
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VYKSTA SISTEMOS TRANSFORMACIJA
VAROMOJI JEGA ??
NAUJA TECHNOLOGINE BANGA !!!
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The Classical Worldview The world as a
machine The whole is a sum of parts It still
does to this day
Everything is going linearly and predictable
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Tomorrow The Age of Complexity The world as a
quantum field patterns
The whole of parts is more than the sum of parts

• - New order
• Networks
• Uncertainty
• - Turbulence in Society

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PASAULIS NERA TOLYGUS
Nauju iniu kurimo ir inovaciju klasteriai
RUSIJA
Globalios ekonomikos varikliai tinklu mazgai
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TINKLAI LEMS RYTOJAUS EKONOMIKA
Microsoft Networking
www.microsoft.com/partner/channelbuilder
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We live in a networked developing world Distrib
uted and locally produced energy supply
systems emerge
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Global network Emerging?
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KAS APIE ENERGETIKA?
AR ITAS MONSTRAS AMINAS ?
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KAS APIE ATOMINE ENERGETIKA?
IZRAELIS - IRANAS
ESME SISTEMOS KOKYBEJE
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PASAULIO METABOLIZMAS
Biological machinery Energy Food
ECOLOGY Economy of Nature
                                               
                                            
Man-made machinery Energy Fossil fuel
ECONOMY
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Economy Energy Market
                                               
                                            
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Shumpeters Waves
Info Bio Nano
Every cycle was stimulated by new disruptive
technology and lasted about 50 years
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TIESU LAUYMAS
We have to rebuild our industry
Industrialism gone economy
We have to develop new economy New manufacturing
will be based on converging (Info, Bio, Nano)
technologies
What we have to understand is, the big picture,
that we are in the midst of a global paradigm
shift from a fossil fuel (non-renewable) based
economy to a renewable energy based economy and
that this transition will take at least 50 years
or more and that the time to start is
NOW.
International Security Security of Energy
Supplies, Vilnius July 26, 2005
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Nanotechnology Focusing on Energy Generation
SAULE VANDENILIS
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World Without Wires
A New Blueprint?
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(No Transcript)
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But,
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Nanotechnology Building High-Impact very
low-cost, lightweight, flexible, polymer
photovoltaic materialsmanufactured roll-to-roll
SUOMIJA POPIERIAUS PRAMONES INOVATYVUMAS
At the end of the decade, the electronics
industry is going to look quite different. Its a
chance for a lot of companies that havent been
involved in semiconductors to be involved. - ABI
Research
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Nanotechnology starts distributed ecological power
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Partners Venture and Corporate
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Government and Military
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Summary

• Paradigm shift from silicon to plastic
• Disruptive nanotechnology
• Scalable roll-to-roll manufacturing process
• Based on environmentally acceptable materia
• Proven business model and strategy
• Large rapidly growing global markets
• Funded by VCs in US and Europe
• World-class scientific teams in US and Europe
• Visibility on product and RD revenue