Potential Climate Impacts on Fisheries

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Integrated Ecosystem Research in the Bering
Sea Bering Ecosystem Study (BEST) Bering
Integrated Ecosystem Research Program (BSIERP)
Summary presentation, Mike Sigler, June 12, 2008
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Outline

• Bering Sea Importance
• Integrated Ecosystem Programs
• Understanding of the Bering Sea
• Understanding benefits stock assessments

J. Thedinga, AFSC
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California fits into the Bering Sea
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Alaska Feeds the Nation
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Alaska Seafood Products
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Protected, Endangered Threatened Species
Bearded seal
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Subsistence Harvests
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Tourism
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Marine Transportation, oil and gas exploration
and production
http//geology.com/articles/northwest-passage.shtm
l
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Phyllis
Bering Sea and Loss of Sea IceClimate Cold
Pool Extent
1982-1986
2002-2006
175
170
165
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Temperature ( C)
Mueter Litzow (unpublished)
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Climate Predictions from IPCC Analysis
Winter (NDJFM) Ocean Temperature Anomaly
(Relative to 1980-99 mean) IPCC A1B emissions
scenario
Prediction of minimum summer ice extent from
selected IPCC runs and actual ice extent (red)
Courtesy of J. Overland
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Bering Sea Climate and Ecosystem Programs
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Mike
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Bering Sea Integrated Ecosystem Study (BSIERP)
and Bering Ecosystem Study (BEST)
Humans
Humpback and fin whales
Kittiwakes and murres, fur seals, walrus
Commercial/subsistence fish Pollock, cod,
arrowtooth flounder
Forage species Juvenile pollock,
capelin, myctophids
NPZ Infauna
Ichthyoplankton, Bivalves, euphausiids,
gastropods, Copepods polychaetes
Atmosphere/ocean
Climate Scenarios
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Bering Sea Understanding
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Ice, Wind, Bloom and Copepods
Early Ice Retreat Late Bloom, Warm
Water Large Copepod Biomass
Late Ice Retreat Early Bloom, Cold
Water Small Copepod Biomass
Hunt et al. 2002
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Summer Copepod Abundance
Warm years
(Smith Vidal, 1986)
Courtesy of Napp and Shiga
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Continued production in summer and fall important
Winds renew nutrients depleted by spring bloom
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Young-of-the-year pollock abundance, BASIS survey
Mike
Cold, 2006-2007
Warm, 2004-2005
Small fish but fat. Big zooplankton, euphausiids
Big fish, but not fat. Cannibalism, small
zooplankton.
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Recent weak year classes
Warm, low zooplankton
Cold
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Competition between piscivorous fish, fur seals,
murres and kittiwakes for forage fish
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Trophic interactions
Arrowtooth flounder abundance is increasing in
the Bering Sea

• Piscivorous fish, birds and seals
• Planktivorous fish and whales

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Competition between forage fish and baleen whales
for zooplankton
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Location Matters - Place-based foragers
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People

• Local and Traditional Knowledge
• Fishermen (economics)

M. Sigler, AFSC
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VERTICALLY-INTEGRATED MODEL
Only first-named PI is listed with project
title remaining PIs listed in note (e.g. s9).
Haynie. Economic and spatial fishery predictions
Irons. Seabird telemetry
Lauth. Bottom trawl survey
Farley. Surface trawl survey
Kultez. Seabird broad-scale
Wilson. Acoustic survey
Byrd. Seabird colony-based
Horne. Surface trawl survey acoustics
Kitasky. Seabird stress
Aydin. Upper trophic level (FEAST)
Ciannelli. Pollock and cod distribution
Friday. Whale broad-scale
Aydin. Functional foraging response
Trites. Fur seal telemetry
Wilson. Forage distribution
Ream. Fur seal colony
Sigler. Hot spot persistence
Benoit-Bird. Patch dynamics
Jay. Walrus telemetry
Heintz. Seasonal bioenergetics
Hillgruber. Ichthyoplankton surveys
Harvey. Euphausiids
Grebmeier. Benthic epifauna
Gibson. Lower trophic level (NPZ)
Sherrs. Zooplankton
Grebmeier. Benthic infauna
Moran. Primary production
Gradinger. Ice algae
Stoecker. Microzooplankton
Coyle. Mesozooplankton
Stabeno. Biophysical moorings
Hollowed. Ocean conditions
Moran. Carbon export
Hermann. Spatial ocean (ROMS)
Weingartner. Ocean conditions
Devol. Sediment nutrient flux
Sonnerup. Ocean conditions
Wu. Iron supply
Bond. Climate Downscaling.
Sambrotto. Nitrogen supply
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Integrated Ecosystem Studies Not for the faint
hearted
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Three Predictions Regarding Health and Function
of Ecosystem
For more informationhttp//bsierp.nprb.org/
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BEST BSIERP Projects
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Specific Studies (subset)
Picket fence of biophysical moorings
J. Napp, AFSC and P. Stabeno, PMEL
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Seasonal Surveys

• Abundance, bioenergetics
• Biophysical moorings
• Ocean conditions

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Standard NOAA Fisheries Surveys
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Measure euphausiid abundance (Ressler and
deRobertis)
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Ichthyoplankton Surveys (Hillgruber,
Duffy-Anderson, Napp, Matarese, Eisner)

• Walleye pollock, Pacific cod and arrowtooth
  flounder
• Distribution, abundance, and transport

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USCGC Healy
Phyllis
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Euphausiid growth, diet and demographics (Harvey,
Lessard, Pinchuk)
Animal collections in ice and open water (AT
NIGHT)
Potential Prey Copepods and nauplii, protists,
phytoplankton, detritus, ice algae
Biochemical Age estimation
Lipid Biomarkers
Shipboard Feeding Experiments (at night)
Demographic structure
Diet History Nutritional Status
Culture prey
Growth Rate and Egg Production
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Sea Ice Algae abundance and production
(Gradinger, Bluhm, Iken)
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Primary production and export to benthos (Moran,
Lomas)
Key - Diatoms, Zooplankton, Flagellates
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Effects of benthic macrofauna on nitrogen cycling
(Shull and Devol)
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Seabird broad scale surveys (Kuletz)
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Cetacean broad scale surveys (Friday, Moore,
Zerbini, Clapham)
N89 CV0.68
N41 CV0.53
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• COLONY TELEMETRY STUDIES (Byrd, Irons, Roby)
• Reproductive success (e.g. chick growth,
  fledging weight, fledging success)
• At sea foraging locations and forage trip
  duration

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Patch Dynamics Study - Pribilof and Bogoslof
Islands (Trites, Kitasky, Benoit-Bird, Heppel)
Satellite tags, diet and prey
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Patch dynamics St. Lawrence Island (Jay and
Grebmeier)
Walrus - satellite tags, diet and prey
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LTK communities (Huntington et al.)

• Harvest surveys
• Interview knowledgeable elders
• Community view of ecosystem

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Approach Testing a priori hypothesesHypotheses
-gt Conceptual model -gt Statistical model
Retrospective Analyses (Mueter and Kruse)
Timing of bloom
Wind mixing
Pollock survival
Summer entrainment
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Benefits of Understanding Climate and Ecosystem
Links through an Integrated Ecosystem Program-
Stock assessment and quota recommendations-
Location matters
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Bering Sea Pollock Year Class Strength
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Bering Sea Pollock Biomass
Quota dropped 30
Spawning exploitation rate
Prey for predators
Understanding recruitment decline
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Wilderbuer et al. 2002, Prog. Oceanogr. 55235-246
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Age -0 Pollock
Age 1 Pollock
Age 1 pollock
Location matters Climate impacts on spatial
distribution and niche partitioning?
Capelin
Age 0 pollock
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Location Matters - Place-based foragers
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Three Predictions Regarding Health and Function
of Ecosystem
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• For more information
• Bering Sea Integrated Ecosystem Research
  Program/Bering Ecosystem Study (BSIERP/BEST)
  funded by the North Pacific Research Board and
  the National Science Foundation -
  http//bsierp.nprb.org/