Mark Judd Scott Wilson

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Mark JuddScott Wilson

• The DfT Air Passenger Forecasting Model
• Taking Forward the 2003 UK Air Transport White
  Paper

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2003 UK White Paper

• Last Aviation White Paper was Airports Policy
  published in 1985
• Runway Capacity to Serve the South East (RUCATSE)
  started in 1990 to consider an additional runway
  in the South East. The options suggested were
  rejected in 1995
• Clear excess demand for Air Traffic but no new
  runway in South East (except London City) since
  World War II
• Provide a clear framework for the development of
  Air Transport over the next 30 years.

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Proposals in the White Paper

• Maximum use of existing infrastructure
• Increased capacity through new runways at
• London Stansted
• London Heathrow (subject to environmental
  impacts)
• Birmingham
• Edinburgh
• London Gatwick (if and only if environmental
  conditions at LHR are not met)

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South East Proposals

• The additional runways at Stansted and Heathrow
  have significant economic benefits
• The dominant costs are those associated with
  global emissions, the costs associated with LAQ
  and noise are in comparison negligible
• LAQ issues at Heathrow may prevent expansion
• Possibility of a congestion charge to reduce
  surface access traffic volumes
• Need to encourage the use of public transport for
  surface access journeys

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DfTs Model

• The DfT model considers passengers from each
  district in the UK flying to each region of the
  World
• The demand for Air Travel is also decomposed
• By Range - Domestic, Short Haul and Long Haul
• By Passenger Type - Business and Leisure
• By Flight Type - Scheduled, Charter and No Frills
  Carrier (NFC)
• The model contains a new route generator and also
  can be calibrated to represent a wide variety of
  growth scenarios
• Latest version of model takes account of changes
  in the aviation market since 2000, eg high NFC
  growth

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DfTs Air Passenger Forecast Model

• Multinomial Logit Model using Generalised Cost
  parameters to assign passengers to airports.
• Generalised costs include
• Surface Access Costs
• Frequency and Range of available Flights
• Fares on specific routes
• Shadow Costs (Fare premia)

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Model Details

• The Model calculates the probability that a
  specific airport is used given the type of demand
  and the regional origin of the demand.
• Business passengers have a much higher value of
  time than leisure passengers.
• This allows the aggregation of figures by airport
  and analysis of the origin of passengers at a
  specific airport.

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Users

• Government
• DfT, Treasury, Defra
• Civil Aviation Authority
• Airports
• Regional Bodies (Govt offices, SEEDA, tie)
• Consultants

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Unconstrained Demand Forecasts

• In 2003 demand for air travel was 200 mppa.
• In 2004 demand was 216 mppa
• The mid point forecast is for demand to reach
• 400 mppa by 2020
• 500 mppa by 2030

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Basis for Demand Forecasts

• Unconstrained forecasts have no limits on
  passenger capacity or Air Traffic Movements
  (ATMs) at airports or in airspace
• Econometric forecasts based on historic data back
  to early 1970s
• Domestic and Foreign Economic Growth
• World Trade
• Air Fares
• Exchange Rates
• Increasing market maturity is assumed
• Income elasticity of demand for air travel
  decreases over time
• Price elasticity of demand has lesser impact

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Assumptions

• Real GDP growth assumptions ( change p.a.)
• UK W Europe OECD NIC LDC
• 2002-15 2.25 2.1 2.7 5.0 4.9
• 2016-20 2.25 2.1 2.7 3.0 4.0
• Most significant determinant Market maturity
  means declining income elasticities over time
• Business markets often constant elasticities'
  log-log models
• Leisure markets often declining elasticities

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Performance of 1991, 1994 and 1997 forecasts at
all UK airports
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Recent Composition of Demand

• Demand Gap due to economic slowdown and Foot
  Mouth, 9/11 and SARS after 2001
• Growth to 2004 in line with 2000 National
  Forecast
• Rapid recent growth in NFCs
• No growth in scheduled services both domestic and
  international 2001-2003
• Some recovery of scheduled and long haul services
  2004
• Signs of market maturity for domestic NFCs

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The SPASM Process
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Results Generated from SPASM
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Modelling the Relationship Between Demand and
Plane Size
Plane Size151
Plane Size92
Plane Size34
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Implications of Demand Forecasts

• Economic Benefits are maximised when new runway
  capacity is located in areas where high levels of
  demand are most prevalent
• This is largely due to the lion share of benefits
  being the benefits to passengers
• Generated Passengers are those who could not
  previously travel but can after development due
  to lower generalised costs
• Spillover Passengers who previously had to travel
  to less preferred airports can now travel from
  more suitable airports decreasing their
  generalised costs of travel
• Existing Passengers benefit from a greater
  frequency of flights now available

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Total UK Air Traffic Demand by District and Use
of Heathrow
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Environmental Impacts

• Local Issues
• Competing Land Uses
• Noise Pollution
• Local Air Quality (LAQ)
• Global Issues
• Global Emissions including Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
  Emissions

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Departure Track Calculation

• SPASM ATM by seat band forecasts
• Current fleet mix at each airport for each seat
  band and class of traffic
• Fleet replacement model for each seat band
• Annual to July Factors
• 16 hour arrival and departure pattern by route
• Availability of SIDs from each runway

LHR Easterly Ops
LHR Westerly Ops
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Heathrow Noise Contours
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Local Air Quality

• Ambient levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and
  particulates (PM10) are due to come under
  mandatory EU limits in 2010 and 2005
  respectively.
• Problems due to these limits are likely to arise
  at Heathrow where there are already high NO2
  levels
• These emissions are not solely attributable to
  aircraft movements as surface access and ground
  movement traffic contribute strongly.
• There is a need to target both types of
  contributor through efficiency improvements
  airside and encouraging substitution from private
  to public vehicles for surface access journeys.

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Heathrow NO2 Emissions Contour Map
m
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The Path Ahead

• Project Sustainable Development of Heathrow and
  Project Stansted G2
• BAA's Heathrow Mixed Mode Proposals
• Prepare to include aviation in a European
  Emissions Trading Scheme
• Monitor and encourage blight and noise mitigation
  schemes
• Airport Master Plans
• 2006 White Paper Review

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• Thank you