Nuclear Famine

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Nuclear Famine

• Jeannie Rosenberg, MD
• Huntingdon, QC
• PGS Healing the Planet
• Montreal, Sept 25 2009

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Credits

• Steven Starr
• International Network of Engineers and Scientists
  Against Proliferation
• Physicians for Global Survival
• PowerPoint slides prepared with the assistance of
• Alan Robock
• Department of Environmental Sciences
• Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey USA

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Alan Robock site

• http//climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/nuclear/

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The Year without a Summer

• 1816

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Nuclear Holocaust
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Methodology of Research

• Comprehensive peer reviewed studies done at
  Rutgers, the University of Colorado-Boulder and
  UCLA
• Multiple 10 year simulations done using state of
  art techniques and equipment
• Employed the same NASA climate model used for the
  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

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Primary Findings

• Less than 1 of the global nuclear arsenal
  detonated in large cities will cause catastrophic
  disruptions of global climate and massive
  destruction of the protective stratospheric ozone
  layer
• The climatic consequences of a large nuclear war
  or even a pre-emptive nuclear strike would
  make the Earth uninhabitable for humans

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Largest conventional bomb
44 tons TNT
Hiroshima-size nuclear weapon 15,000
tons TNT Smallest strategic nuclear
weapon 100,000 tons TNT Large U.S.
strategic nuclear weapon 1,300,000
tons TNT Largest known strategic nuclear weapon
100,000,000 tons TNT
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• Megaton one million
  tons of TNT Mt
• India-Pakistan
  War 1 ½ Mt
• 
  World War II 3 Mt
• High-Alert U.S. and Russian weapons
  1185 Mt
• Total deployed U.S. and Russian weapons 2700
  MT

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• Global warming since 1880 (in blue ) compared to
  predicted temperature drops from nuclear war

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Canadian wheat production after small drops in
average surface temperature

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India-Pakistan nuclear war

• 100 Hiroshima-size weapons ½ WW II or 0.05 of
  deployed U.S.-Russian weapons
• 5 million tons of smoke rises 50 km above cloud
  level into the stratosphere
• Global temperatures drop to little Ice-Age
  levels significant reduction in precipitation
• 25-40 of ozone destroyed at mid-latitudes,
  50-70 destroyed at northern high latitudes

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India-Pakistani conflict using 100
Hiroshima-size nuclear weapons
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Change in average surface temps 2 years after
India-Pakistan nuclear war
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Change in global precipitation 1 year after
India-Pakistan nuclear war
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How could nuclear war start?

• Escalation of a local war
• Accident

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Annihilation by Accident
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• Megaton one million tons of TNT
  Mt
• 
  World War II 3 Mt
• High-Alert U.S. and Russian weapons
  1185 Mt
• Total deployed U.S. and Russian weapons 2700
  MT

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• Operational nuclear arsenal has 1000 times the
  explosive power of all the bombs detonated in
  World War II
• High-alert arsenals 300 times explosive power
  of WWII

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Launch-on-Warning (LoW)

• the Cold War policy of launching a retaliatory
  nuclear strike while the opponent's missiles or
  warheads are believed to be in flight, but before
  any detonation from the perceived attack has
  occurred
• Under LoW the decision to launch is made solely
  on the basis of electronic EWS data

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What Are High-Alert Nuclear Weapons?

• Missiles with nuclear warheads that can be
  launched in 2 to 15 minutes
• Missiles that cannot be recalled and require 30
  minutes or less to reach their targets
• Most land-based U.S. and Russian Intercontinental
  Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) are on high-alert,
  along with some submarine-launched missiles
  (SLBMs)

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False Alarms
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20 Mishaps That Might Have Started Accidental
Nuclear War by Alan F. Phillips, M.D

• PGS website (PGS.ca)
• Resources
• Abolition of nuclear weapons
• Articles

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Prevention
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Steps to Eliminate High-Alert Weapons

• Eliminate Launch-on-Warning Policy
• De-Alert Nuclear Weapon Systems

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De-Alerting Nuclear Weapons

• De-alerting is the introduction of physical
  changes to nuclear weapon systems to slow down
  the launch process
• De-alerting can be used to rapidly implement
  existing arms control agreements
• Many ways to implement de-alerting block silo
  lids, pin back firing switches, removing warheads
  from missiles

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Eliminate Launch-on-Warning Policy

• Launch-on-Warning policy can be eliminated by
  Presidential decree
• NO retaliation ordered ONLY on the basis of
  electronic EWS data
• Policy of RLOAD Retaliatory Launch Only After
  Detonation would prevent accidental nuclear war
  based upon a false warning

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Nuclear war is a Climate Change issue

• Even a small local nuclear war would cause
  catastrophic global cooling, drought, and famine.
• Progress made on global warming would be made
  meaningless by a nuclear war.
• Taking nuclear missiles off Launch on Warning
  would greatly reduce the risk of accidental
  nuclear war.

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