Title: AWB Limited - International Roadshow
1Investor Presentation June 2005
2AWB - a snapshot
- Australian Wheat Board created in World War I,
privatised in 1999 and listed as AWB Limited
(AWB) on Australian Stock Exchange in August 2001 - Market capitalisation of 1.5 billion revenues
of 9 billion (including Pool revenue) and
shareholder funds in excess of 1 billion - Consistently out performed the SP / ASX 200
since listing - Markets wheat to more than 50 countries
- Australian footprint includes more than 430
outlets across Australia with a spread of more
than 2,700 staff reaching about 100,000 farmers
3What we have achieved
B class shareholders
4Our scorecard to date
Net Profit Production volume
Return on average equity
Earnings per share Dividend per share
Share price since listing
At least 27 cps, subject to normal seasonal
conditions on the east coast
Pre goodwill amortisation
5What we have achieved
- Acquired Landmark in August 2003 for around 825
million enterprise value - Integration of Landmark 95 complete
- EBIT enhancements for 2003/04 of 13 million
exceeded target of 5-10 million. On track to
achieve 20 - 25 million this year. - Established fertiliser joint venture ELF
- AWB constructed 21 grain centres with a total
capacity of over 3 million tonnes - Strategic focus on customer management,
introduction of CMS system - Successful development of international business
Geneva, India - Sold 2.5 million tonnes to China, the first
significant sale since 1996 - Positioned to tap into growing Asian markets
- Progressive business expansion
6What we are today
Merch 1.2b sales
7Business characteristics
Business Stream Drivers
Pool Management Services Manages the pooling and global marketing of Australian wheat Manages grain from point of delivery to point of consumption AWB National Pool receival tonnes AUD/USD exchange rate US wheat price per tonne
Rural Services (Landmark) Major supplier of agribusiness products and services including merchandise, fertiliser, livestock, wool marketing, real estate, finance and insurance Seasonal conditions Livestock prices and volume Wool prices and volume Crop production
Grain Acquisition Trading Responsible for domestic grain trading Exporting non-wheat grains such as canola and sorghum Tonnes sold wheat and other grains Other origin grains sold Margins per tonne
8Business characteristics (contd)
Business Stream Drivers
Finance Risk Management Provides harvest finance against majority of grain delivered to the AWB National Pool Range of price risk management products for growers, domestic and international customers through AWB RiskAssist AWB National Pool receival tonnes AWB National Pool Payment Options take-up Average wheat price Loan book interest rate
Supply Chain Other Investments Manages supply chain infrastructure to move grain from paddock to international customers AWB National Pool receival tonnes Receival volume through grain centres Price per storage
9AWB Strategy
10Targets will be achieved by implementing three
dominant business strategies
AWBs overarching goal is to implement an
Integrated Business Model...
11Three growth areas
- Fertiliser and merchandise are the main areas
targeted for growth - Cross selling
- Leverage buying power in the network
- Improve merchandise and supply chain effectiveness
Leading position in Australian rural services
- Increase product base build on AWBs natural
advantage to provide a wider range of products,
better interest rates, and streamline credit
processes - Specific areas targeted for growth include
lending, deposits, wealth management and general
insurance
Leading rural financial services and insurance
provider
- Continue to focus on mandate to maximise grower
returns - Expand the suite of commodities, origins and
risks managed - Strengthen the differentiated position for
Australian wheat
Australias leading global grain trading business
12The way ahead
To be both the primary producers and end-use
consumers business partner of choice
- Acquisition expected to achieve target 15 ROE by
FY2005 - EPS accretive in FY 2004 and by more than 35 in
FY2006 - of PBT not related to Australian wheat gt20 in
2004/05 - Landmark will diversify AWBs earnings base and
reduce volatility of AWBs earnings - AWB Group will achieve 15 ROE in the medium term
- Stable dividend policy
- Strengthen core business, in particular preserve
and enhance the value of the Single Desk system - Grow and diversify to improve the quality of the
earnings base and reduce wheat harvest volatility
13Outlook
14Outlook 2004/05
- Earnings
- AWBs 2005 earnings forecast is expected to be
comparable to 2004 earnings, assuming improved
seasonal conditions on the east coast to
compliment the excellent start in the west - Dividend
- Increase in interim dividend to 16 cents per
share, fully franked - Final dividend expected to be no less than 11
cents per share, fully franked - Full year dividend to increase from 25 cents per
share in 2004, to at least 27 cents per share in
2005
15Outlook - global wheat market
- Production is slightly down and stocks remain
tight - New crop conditions around the world are good
- FSU rebound after poor 2003/04 crop has
contributed to increasing major exporter carry
out stocks - Markets have retraced from highs of 367 cents per
bushel set in mid March to around 310 cents per
bushel - 21-23 million tonnes is expected from 2005/06
domestic harvest subject to improved seasonal
conditions on the east coast - Current conditions in WA are excellent
- Solid performance in international grain trading
business
16Outlook other commodities
- Livestock
- Beef prices expected to tail off with increased
export competition from North and South America - Lamb prices set to remain positive with increased
demand from export markets - Real Estate
- Rural real estate market remains promising
- Financial Services
- Strong medium term growth is forecast for the
financial services business - Merchandise Fertiliser
- Merchandise Fertiliser sales dependent on rain
on the east coast
17Going forward
- Despite a difficult outlook, we are confident
that Australian agriculture can be globally
competitive - We have comparative advantage
- Freight advantage to Asian region
- Progress on trade reform will improve market
access - AWB and Landmark can continue to capitalise on
opportunities with our business model
18APPENDICES
- 1. 2005 Half Year Results
- 2. Wheat prices, futures global supply
- 3. Rural services
- 4. Financial services
- 5. IFRS update
19APPENDIX 1 2005 Half Year Results
20Solid result in a tough environment
Financial Result - half year ended 31st March
2005
Outside Equity Interests
21Half year highlights
- Net profit after tax of 91.3 million, up 69,
underlying net profit after tax of 66.6 million,
down 3 - Earnings per share of 26.6 cents, with an interim
dividend of 16 cents per share (fully franked) - Profit on sale of investment in Futuris of 55.2m
(41.8m after tax) - Landmark integration on track to deliver year two
synergy targets - Pool performed well given tough global
environment - Expansion of international trading with a new
office in New Delhi, India - Harvest loan book peaked at 1.1 billion
- Landmark lending book was nearly 1.3 billion
- Increased merchandise and fertiliser sales by 6
nationally - Establishment of strategic partnership in
fertiliser with Elders WMC Resources
22demonstrating strength through diversification
Despite a 17 decrease in wheat production over
2003/04 harvest, earnings have dropped by only 3
NPAT pre significant items
23Strong yield for shareholders
Shareholder Summary
AWB continues to be a strong yield stock
24Statement of financial performance
25Statement of financial position
26Cashflow
million 6 months to 31 March 2005
Profit before tax Depreciation amortisation Profit on sale of n/c assets Other non-cash items Increase in working capital balances Finance options for growers Tax paid Payments for ppe (net) Proceeds on sale of investments (net) Proceeds from issue of shares Net increase in interest bearing liabilities Dividends paid 117.7 41.2 (58.4) (5.7) (300.0) (184.8) (42.9) (1.5) 151.7 8.3 300.0 (38.0)
Net decrease in cash held (12.4)
property, plant equipment
27Capital expenditure
million For the 6 months ended 31-Mar-05 For the 6 months ended 31-Mar-04 Change
Grain centres construction 5.0 3.8 32
System Development Other Plant Equipment 19.0 10.7 78
New building costs - 7.2 -100
Total 24.0 21.7 11
Depreciation 22.6 22.7 -
28Pool Management Services
million (EBIT) For the half year ended 31-Mar-05 For the half year ended 31-Mar-04 Change
Pool Management Services 11.4 11.8 (3)
- 2004 Wheat Marketing Review findings showed that
the Single Desk is being well managed by AWB - Following recommendations from the review, the
performance based remuneration model has been
refined - As out-performance is reported, Pool Management
Services expects improved earnings in the second
half of 2005 - Strong sales performance
challenging environment strong performance
29Trading
million (EBIT) For the half year ended 31-Mar-05 For the half year ended 31-Mar-04 Change
Grain Acquisition Trading 32.7 59.5 (45)
- Trading operates on a fund of funds basis
- There has been a return to more normal freight
market conditions - AWB Geneva continues to be a strong revenue
platform for the group - New office opened in New Delhi, India
- Australia grain trading reduced its EBIT
contribution on lower volumes and margins (mainly
due to seasonal conditions) - Livestock trading (previously managed in the
Landmark business) contributed strong revenue
growth to the Group
presence in both domestic and international
grain markets
30Supply Chain Other Investments
million (EBIT) For the half year ended 31-Mar-05 For the half year ended 31-Mar-04 Change
Supply Chain Other Investments (2.5) 0.1 -
- Receivals through the Grain Centres were down 0.5
million tonnes to 1.3 million tonnes due to
adverse seasonal conditions coupled increased
competitive pressures - Melbourne Port Terminal and overseas investments
(Five Star Flour Mills in Egypt and AWB Zennoh in
Japan) maintained their EBIT contributions at a
similar level to the prior year - Efficiencies within the supply chain positively
impacts the Pool Services management fee
adverse seasonal conditions impact results
31Finance Risk Management
million (EBIT) For the half year ended 31-Mar-05 For the half year ended 31-Mar-04 Change
Finance Risk Management 21.8 21.8 -
- Contribution by Financial Services decreased
while Risk Management increased - Market share and margins were maintained in a
highly competitive environment, although wheat
production and export prices declined - AWBs risk management businesses (AWB Riskassist,
Basis Pool and the over-the-counter options desk
in AWBs Portland, USA office) provided increased
contribution to the result mainly due to
increased activity in Portland, USA office
highly competitive environment but still the
market leader
32Rural Services (Landmark)
million (EBIT) For the half year ended 31-Mar-05 For the half year ended 31-Mar-04 Change
Rural Services (Landmark) 35.3 32.9 7
- Higher earnings across all activities (other than
wool) plus the recognition of profit on the sale
of assets was partially offset by higher
overhead costs (predominantly incentive payments,
training and motor vehicle costs) - Merchandise and fertiliser sales increased by 6
- Livestock profitability remained comparable due
to higher cattle prices offset by reduced
volumes and lower sheep prices offset by
increased volumes - Real Estate sales increased through increased
prices driven by increased demand for prime
rural properties - Finance profitability increased 4 due to growth
in the loan book - Insurance profitability increased 3 due to 1
growth in gross written premium
lowest cost full service distribution network
33Corporate
million (EBIT) For the half year ended 31-Mar-05 For the half year ended 31-Mar-04 Change
Corporate (3.4) (13.3) 74
- Combination of head office costs offset by
miscellaneous revenue items - Corporate overheads decreased mainly due to
non-recurring integration and restructuring costs
associated with the Landmark acquisition incurred
in the prior year - Dividends from Futuris of 4 million
34EBIT summary of business operations
35Integration update
36On track to deliver year two synergy targets
Integrated Business Model generating new revenue
growth opportunities
Integration
1. Customer Management
Integrated customer management developed across
the distribution network combining systems and
processes to better understand and serve our
customers
Back office integration is complete, our focus
has shifted to implementation of the IBM
2. Product Development
New products and bundles being developed
incorporating products from across Landmark and
AWB range to better meet our customers needs
3. Channel Strategy
Channel management to optimise AWB-Landmarks
combined distribution network
37APPENDIX 2 Wheat prices, futures global
supply
38World wheat production
- World wheat production increased by 71 million
tonnes to record 625 million tonnes in 2004 after
consecutive problematic years in 2002 and 2003. - Initial USDA forecast for 2005 historically large
at 615 million tonnes - Second consecutive year of large crops forecast
across - EU-25 136 mmt in 04 followed by 128m forecast
this year - FSU 86m and 87m resp
- Major Exp 200m and 190m
- China 91m and 93m
- US crop forecast unchanged at 59 mmt
39World wheat production consumption
Source USDA 2005
40World wheat trade 5 major exporters
2004/05 2005/06 estimated Source USDA
41World stocks
- World wheat ending stocks have rebounded since
the 2003/04 historical low in 2004/05 and are
forecast unchanged in 2005/06 around 147-150mmt. - However of these stocks 35-40mmt are in China of
which forecasts have proved historically
unreliable. The trend erosion in world wheat
ending stocks is primarily due to forecast
declining Chinese stocks with major exporter
stocks building. - World stocks an unreliable indicator of price due
to Chinese stock uncertainty, reduced global
number of government controlled balance sheets
and importers and increased number of smaller
private sector importers using least cost
inventory management. - 5 Major exporter stocks continuing to build and
becoming burdensome forecast at 57mmt in 05/06
versus 55mmt in 04/05 and 38mmt in 03/04. - World feed demand increasing primarily in Europe
due to oversupply of wheat versus competing
feed-grains.
42Chicago futures
43Prices
- US wheat futures complex continues to price in a
modest risk premium versus historical fundamental
price models due to row crop weather market
uncertainty, long-only index fund participation
and weaker USD regime - USDA forecast 2005/06 major exporter and US wheat
fundamentals would suggest downside price risk
through Sep subject to US corn supply - APW National Pool 2004/05 EPR remains at 199 FOB
versus forecast 186 FOB for 2005/06 Pool
primarily due to stronger AUD
44The future
- Increased production and export supply from the
Russia and Ukraine likely over time - Exports from the Black Sea work initially into
the Mediterranean, then Africa and the Middle
East - This is one of the major drivers for AWB to focus
on increasing exports into Asian markets over the
next five years - AWB exports into Asia in 2004 will be greater
than 10 million tonnes for the first time
45Outlook
- Downside price risk remains
- Strong competition from Northern Hemisphere
export origins to continue - World wheat balance sheet much more comfortable
than 2003/04 able to withstand a medium scale
supply shock going forward - Demand surprise risk increasing over time in both
China and Sub-Continent - AWB confident of retaining 50 of Iraq import
demand
46APPENDIX 3 Rural Services
47Merchandise
- Merger of Wesfarmers Dalgety and IAMA in 2001
resulted in Landmark becoming Australias largest
rural merchandise distributor - Stores across Australia stock a range of animal
health, cropping, fencing, fertiliser and farm
hardware product - Merchandise products are distributed via 230
company owned branches, 47 franchises and 120
members and agents, and supported by over 200
agronomists Australia wide
48Merchandise overview
Competitive environment Key opportunities
Intense price competition Commoditisation of products Rationalisation of suppliers, particularly in the chemical sector Channel proliferation leading to increased competition in distribution Low demand for cotton inputs due to lower production, irrigation cuts and biotechnology Livestock carrying numbers reduced following drought with expected impact on Animal Health and management sales Cotton prospects improved with increased water availability Commoditisation of products 75 of chemical products expected to be off -patent by 2005 Generic products are becoming a bigger part of the farmers decision making process Operational improvement opportunities Meet all price points
a generic strategy will be important
49Fertiliser
- Significant supplier of fertiliser distributing
over 1 million tonnes per annum, as well as
retailing liquid, trace element and specialist
fertilisers - The major fertiliser products are globally traded
commodities, resulting in - Limited scope for differentiation between retail
outlets and - Importer traders ensuring world price movements
rapidly flow through to domestic price (i.e.
volatility)
50Fertiliser overview
Competitive environment Key opportunities
Limited product differentiation Large number of agents and dealers competing locally Requirement for logistics services in some markets Ongoing rationalisation of industry players Market volumes increasing Nitrogen use increasing Local prices driven by world prices Increased market share through acquisition of independents Cross sell bundled product offering
growing market share and volume is important
51Livestock
- One of Australias largest marketers of livestock
- Operating in all States and Territories
throughout Australia - Handles 20 of livestock trading in Australia
- Core business is sale of livestock through
saleyards - 70 sold via auction - Livestock trading is also a part of the business
- Landmark supplies processors, supermarket
processors, lot feeders and live export markets
52Livestock overview
Competitive environment Key opportunities
Pressure on core agency business from increased direct selling to processors Major competitors involved in vertical integration Private agents cutting commission rates to gain share Rationalisation of saleyards Increase business into grain fed markets Strong meat and live export markets Productivity improvements, saleyard rationalisation
prices are expected to remain strong
53Wool
- Handle approximately 25 of the National Wool
Clip (500,000 bales) - Provide traditional broking / auction selling
services as well as a comprehensive range of Risk
Management products - 50 interest in Australian Wool Handlers AWH
(with Elders) wool handling - Not involved in any downstream processing
54Wool overview
Competitive environment Key opportunities
Strong competition for a record low volume of wool (sheep numbers at 96 million in 2003-04) Small, low cost regional brokers have increased market share Ongoing price discounting Rationalisation amongst brokers to occur Move from wool to meat likely to continue Fall in wool production has created an opportunity for industry rationalisation and consolidation Good prospects for sheep meat will assist building flock numbers Low levels of supply will provide support to wool prices
increased throughput is the key
55Real Estate
- Landmark real estate has two main activities
- Rural property sales - Residential property
sales
56Real Estate overview
Competitive environment Key opportunities
Metro and town real estate agents moving into small farm areas causing margin pressure Sophisticated players with marketing and sales representatives Low market share in residential real estate Limited capital Variable pay structure Outlook is for steady growth
good platform to grow residential market share
57Outlook
- Opportunities exist to grow in most activities
- Commodity prices expected to remain strong
- Real Estate values expected to plateau
58APPENDIX 4 Financial Services
59Point of difference for Landmark Financial
Services
60What are our major initiatives
to be a broad-based rural and regional financial
services distributor with niche manufacturing
capability where we have a natural competitive
advantage
Lending Harvest Finance Deposits Insurance
Product Relationship pricing and bundling Cross sell and bundling programs Tap into commodity cashflows Fill product gaps
People Recruit and develop high calibre RFMs Specialist grain expertise FSRA skill accreditation Recruit and develop specialist staff
Process Enhanced loan platform Web enabled Improve client statements Full online proposition Supplier sales conversions Web enabled
Positioning Build FS brand with primary producers Reinforce strong brand with grain clients Build FS brand across rural, regional and metro Build FS brand across rural, regional and metro
61A broad product range
Lending
Deposits
Insurance
Net Access
Harvest Finance
- Term Loans
- Seasonal Finance
- Line of Credit
- Fastrak Finance
- Cheque Account
- Debit Card
- Blue Ribbon Online
- Call Inv.
- Term Deposit
- General Insurance
- Crop Insurance
- Stud Livestock Insurance
- Transit Insurance
- Landmark Finance Online Plus
- Transfer funds
- Views statements
- Pay bills
- Harvest Loan
- Flexible Drawdown Loan
- Advanced Payment
- Deferred Payment
62Target a growing market
Harvest Finance Finance 2.1B GP 56m
Lending 37.2B GP 960m
Deposits 16.1B GP 64m
Insurance 0.8B GWP GP 91m
- Moderate growth outlook
- Lower credit risk, volatility and fewer losses
(relative to commercial lending)
- AWB-Landmark has 70 market share
- Competition continues to intensify
- Dominated by banks but Landmark has 600M
- Moderate growth outlook
- Increasingly complex covers required
- Highly concentrated market
63Strong opportunity to grow
Strengths Weaknesses
Distribution Network extensive branch network provides broad geographical representation in key rural regions and a platform for business origination, relationship management and local knowledge and presence Broad client base AWB and Landmark businesses provide large and diverse client contact points and relationship defining opportunities Deep Agribusiness Understanding The AWB-Landmark group of businesses collectively has at its disposal market leading knowledge of agribusiness Harvest Finance clear market leadership (70 market share), and strong influence over fund flows Agency agreement with Rabobank restricts lending effectiveness and pricing flexibility and causes channel conflict Moderate brand association market perception that the Landmark brand is not as highly associated with FS expertise as against other market players Product gaps exist in all product groups - particularly insurance and wealth
Opportunities Threats
New funding arrangements access to market leading products Develop cross business relationship pricing model Market leading risk pricing leverage deep agribusiness understanding to better price risk and selectively manufacture niche products Address key product gaps to allow for more attractive packaging proposition Increasingly competitive market declining number of clients and increasing number of competitors Competitors increasingly view Landmark as a threat and move to leverage core client base away from Landmark
64Cross sell benefits identified
Lending Cross Sell across AWB Proportion of each
client base also purchasing Lending
Financial Services Internal Cross Sell
Cross Sell Proportion of Client Base Purchasing Other FS Products Cross Sell Proportion of Client Base Purchasing Other FS Products Cross Sell Proportion of Client Base Purchasing Other FS Products Cross Sell Proportion of Client Base Purchasing Other FS Products
Product No. Clients Lending Deposits Harvest Finance Insurance
Lending 4,400 N/A 95 13 30
Deposits 11,000 40 N/A 8 20
Harvest Finance 19,000 3 5 N/A 16
Insurance 29,000 5 8 11 N/A
15 of Wool customers also hold a lending product
11 of financial services customers hold both
Insurance and Harvest Finance
65Outlook for the business
Drivers of Near Term Success
Current Situation
- New supplier agreement (lending)
- People development productivity
- Influence and control of client purchasing
behaviours including cross sell (customer
solutions) opportunities
- Information and understanding of client is core
competitive strength - People development and enabling systems and
processes have room for improvement - Challenge is to grow business revenues while
protecting base and enhance position during Rabo
migration
Distribution Platform
Staged Approach
Build/Source Capability - Transitional
- Build client interface (single view of client and
intuitive support tools for servicing clients
needs)
Today
- Product breadth
- Sales service capability people and systems
- Leads referral management
- Performance management systems
Next 3 years
66Outlook
- Rural customers traditionally under serviced
- Service based proposition
- Leverage customer insights across all business
streams - Business partnership
67APPENDIX 5 IFRS update
68A-IFRS impact
- First A-IFRS compliant reporting will be 31 March
2006 - Project is managed in accordance with a
documented governance and monitoring structure - Project is on schedule and AWB expects to fully
comply - Major impacts
- Goodwill impairment test
- Expense share based payments
- No hedge accounting for derivatives
- Grain trading inventory at fair value
69A-IFRS Analysis - High Impact
AASB Ref Description Impact
AASB 1 First Time adoption elections available No AASB 139 comparatives. No AASB 3 re-opening of business combinations No AASB 121 transfer of cumulative translation differences to opening retained earnings.
AASB 2 Expensing share based payments Black Scholes modelling of executive performance rights with 4 year amortisation period used for current AASB 1046 compliance. Other schemes expensed as incurred. Loan schemes currently a UIG proposed issue.
AASB 136 Goodwill impairment testing 30 September 2004 carrying value supported by impairment testing at 31 March 2005.
AASB 136 Other asset impairment testing Finalising cash generating unit assessment and impairment indicator identification.
AASB 102 Inventories Not applicable to commodity traders where fair value less costs to sell permitted. Landmark inventory remains lower of cost or net realisable value.
AASB 139 Derivative Hedges No hedge accounting sought. Full PL given onerous documentation and transaction matching requirements combined with complimentary treatment of inventory and forwards
70A-IFRS Analysis - Low Impact
- Addresses areas where widespread external
publicity has created uncertainty, but assessment
has confirmed as low impact at AWB - Embedded derivatives (AASB 139)
- Comprehensive high level review by contract type
- Detailed review of high risk contracts
- No embedded derivatives identified
- Income Tax (AASB 112)
- Dependency on first consolidated tax return
balance sheet - Comprehensive review indicates no material impact
- FCTR (AASB 121, AASB 1)
- No transfer of cumulative translation differences
to opening retained earnings as AWB has no intent
to divest - Landmark acquisition accounting (AASB 3, AASB 1)
- No value in reopening acquisition
- Pool Accounting
- Not consolidated remains a special purpose
reporting entity with ASIC exemption from annual
and interim financial reporting - UIG Action Alert 05-02, Commodity Pooling
Arrangements, The UIG received a presentation
from representatives of AWB given the now
consistent presentation of financial reports of
pool managers in relation to commodity pools,
members agreed that the UIG need not address
these issues further at this time.
71A-IFRS financial impact
72www.awb.com.au
For more information contact Delphine
Cassidy Head of Investor Relations Ph 61 3 9209
2404 Email dcassidy_at_awb.com.au