Evaluating%20Theories%20of%20Crime

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Evaluating Theories of Crime
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What is a Theory?

• A statement of set of statements about the
  relationships between 2 or more events
• In criminology?
• A theory predicts what will happen, not how the
  world should be

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How do you know a good theory when you see one?

• Akers 6 criteria for evaluating a theory
• 1. Logical Consistency
• 2. Scope
• 3. Parsimony
• 4. Testability
• 5. Fit with Empirical Evidence
• 6. Usefulness of Policy Implications

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Logical Consistency

• Clearly Defined Concepts
• Concept symbol/label that we apply to an
  abstract image
• Examples?
• Concepts must fit in a logical manner
• BAD LOGIC All crime is caused by imprisonment

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SCOPE (not the mouthwash)

• DEPENDENT variable
• How general is your explanation?
• Specific forms of crime/deviance?
• All crime?
• All crime, deviance, sin, and recklessness?
• All else being equal, Wider is Better

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Parsimony

• INDEPENDENT (predictor) variables
• How complex is your explanation?
• Parsimony Low self-control is single cause of
  crime
• Not Crime caused by a combination of poverty,
  inequality, average daily temperature,
  intelligence, hair color, weight, daily stress
• All else being equal, more parsimony is better!

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Testability

• A valid theory can be falsified
• Non-falsifiable theories?
• Tautological arguments (crime causes crime)
• Vague and open-ended statements (Freud)
• Must be observe/measure concepts (little green
  men)

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Is the theory correct?

• Survive empirical scrutiny
• Few theories are entirely correct or false
• To what degree is the theory supported?
• Preponderance of evidence support?
• Incorrect theories must be modified or discarded

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Policy Implication

• All crime theories attempt to identify the
  causes of crime.
• Can the causes be reversed?
• Does the theory translate into practice?
• Example Marxist theory of crime

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Flow Chart for Evaluation
NO Useless, stop here

• Evaluate the
• Following
• Scope
• Parsimony
• Policy Implications

Falsifiable? Logical?
Yes
Empirical Evidence?
YES
NO Modify/Discard