News from the

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News from the Operational Forecast World
including "Operations" for IPY
Ed Hudson, Operational Forecaster, Prairie and
Arctic Storm Prediction Centre, Meteorological
Service of Canada, Environment Canada 38 going
for 40 years of Service with Environment Canada
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Healy 2003 was a highlight of my forecast
career. It led to awards.
for seamanship Hopefully our marine
forecasts for Nares Strait are better because of
Healy 2003
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History - Once upon a time we were hung up on
isobars
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Why is CATS important to me / to the forecast
office where I work ?

• 1. We provide forecasts that cover the CATS
  study area
• 2. It brought /brings science and operations
  together
• 3. I was on the Healy CATS summer 2003 Nares
  Strait cruise
• CATS is a catalyst for us to improve products
• CATS keep discovering weather

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Then the winds came 13 April 2005, Lafayette Bay
Tents blown away in gale to storm force
northerly winds
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Roger Samelsons visualization showed jets at
about 400 metres

• Jets
• - near Greenland coast
• over Greenland

Wind speed contours (m/s)
400 m
Ellesmere Island
Greenland
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The event prompted us to look at our MSC wind
guidance
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Prior to 2005, this chart cut off before it made
it to Alert. Learning of Humfreys planned
activity prompted me to get this chart extended
northward. Now to get other operational charts
to extend northward.
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And to be much more aware of happenings in Nares
Strait / the Lincoln Sea The 3 images from the
evening 3 May to afternoon 5 May shows the lead
that developed north / northeast of Alert as a
consequence of a strong southerly flow out of
Nares Strait.
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For IPY MSC/Weather Services Develop and
implement forecast plan, define needs and service
requirements to support a wide range of IPY
activities, including specialized aircraft and
marine missions, specialized forecast services to
support a potential winter ship based science
mission (forecasts not normally provided for
winter activities Develop, test and implement
forecast products and weather information
products suitable for IPY investigators, pilots,
marine operators etc., which would be distributed
through a range of means, including
Weatheroffice.
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• Expand what is on the Environment Canada web site
  http//weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/canada_e.html
• e.g
• POES satellite imagery of higher resolution, new
  area mappings, ensure full suite of ir, vis and
  combo (3u) imagery
• Wind visualizations in color, more areas
• Weather visualizations such as precipitation
  type and precipitation amount mappings, outgoing
  flux

Create science project web site at Canadian Ice
Centre for products
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Public forecasts for fixed IPY science sites
are possible but only for sites that provide us
real time feedback (observations)
Alert ?
April and May this year we did a public forecast
for a Lorita ice camp site north of Ellesmere
Island. We had a buoy there so we got
continuous temperature information and we got the
occasional person observation. Human and model
need to see a site for awhile to have a chance to
do a decent job.
Public forecast realm. Prairie and Arctic Storm
Prediction Centre located in Edmonton and
Winnipeg
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On request area can be activated and were open
to going beyond the Canadian boundary
Aviation forecast realm, Canadian Meteorological
Aviation Centre located in Edmonton and Montreal
April and May this year we extended the GFA realm
to accommodate the Danish and Canadian scientists
working the Lorita area.
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• Plan to update wind visualizations
• adjust areas
• add new areas
• more color
• get more onto the CIS web site
• get onto http//weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca

We continue to use the Nares mapping that we
started immediately prior to Healy / CATS 2003
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Areas can be activated and were open to
creating new areas for waters that lie in
Canada. Were also open to doing forecasts beyond
Canadian waters where there are at present there
are no marine forecasts. For the past three
years, Canadian Ice Centre has provided
forecasts for CCGS Louis S. St. Laurent
operations in the Arctic Basin north of Alaska.
CIS has flexibility in their forecast program and
in forecast format AND they have an Ice
Specialist onboard the Louis S. St Laurent so
there is 2-way dialogue about where the ship is
and the weather.
X
X
X
X
Marine forecast realm, Prairie and Arctic Storm
Prediction Centre located Edmonton and Winnipeg
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Satellite mappings can be created for science
projects and ftpd to them.
Ongoing - For the past few years, a Nares
mapping has been sent to a site at IOS for
Humfrey Melling et al.
During the CASES field period, a Beaufort
mapping was sent to John Hanesiak at the
University of Manitoba
Satellite Imagery POES facility in Edmonton and
we share a facility in Resolute with Fisheries
and Oceans
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Can facilitate buoy mappings with Polar Science
Center, University of Washington
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Endeavoring to improve the POES imagery on
http//weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca

• Flush out existing mappings to include full
  suite of ir, vis, and 3u (combo) imagery
• Bump up file size (resolution)
• Add mappings

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Get the right (meaningful) weather products
(analysis and forecast) and the right mappings to
science
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• Products and Services that serve safety and
  effectiveness
• Pre event
• Real time
• Post Event

Satellite imagery Weather maps Wind
Visualizations static and movie Implement NWP
high resolution windows for IPY
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Not giving up on joint weather sites.
MSC auto stations coming
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STAR project (CCAF funded) will serve as the
initial project to plan (IPY) weather operations
in support of science

• satellite mapping
• run small scale model
• onsite operational meteorologist

STAR - STAR is a field-based project that will
be based out of Iqaluit, NU, Canada to take place
in the autumn of 2007/winter 2008. (STAR field
campaign 2007 October 15 to December 10)
http//www.starnetwork.ca The project is
concerned with the documentation, better
understanding and prediction of meteorological
and related hazards in the Arctic including their
modification by local topography and
land-sea-ice-ocean transitions, their impact on
the local communities, and information that may
lead to an assessment of hazard frequency
assessment relative to a changing climate. A
combination of field measurements,
high-resolution modeling and remote sensing
(including CloudSat) will be used. Leads -
Professor John Hanesiak, Centre for Earth
Observation Science, University of Manitoba and
Professor Ron Stewart, Atmospheric Oceanic
Sciences, McGill University
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Canadian Ice Service also plans new products and
services to serve IPY science activities.

• Specialized ice products to support IPY marine
  activities and test capabilities to support
  on-ice science investigations, including
  development of new ice forecasting expertise.
• Specialized ice products designed to assess and
  mitigate the risk to on-ice research parties and
  increase the likelihood of success of research
  projects and include
• detailed maps of the ice motion in particular
  research areas over short timeframes (days)
• detailed maps of ice openings and ice ridges /
  rubble fields
• annotated satellite images
• forecasts of ice conditions in particular
  research areas for several days into the future
•  
• Acquire a baseline of winter Radarsat images to
  assist with determination of ice conditions and
  provide improved ice climatology of Canadian
  waters where investigators will likely work.

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